Meteorology
Articles tagged with Meteorology
Predicting typhoon intensity using ocean surface temperatures
Significant update to ECMWF’s key forecasting systems IFS and AIFS to go live
The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is upgrading its key forecasting systems, the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS), to improve weather forecast accuracy. The upgrades include enhancements to ocean- sea ice interactions, wave forecasts, and s...
Researchers reconstruct path and intensity of China's Guangzhou 'April 27' tornado using multi-source data
On the ground or in the atmosphere? New satellite data can help characterize and pinpoint destructive events
Researchers use Swarm satellites and ground-based observations to distinguish between space weather effects and natural hazard signatures. This project aims to improve infrastructure protection, early warning systems, and space weather predictions.
AI falls short in predicting weather extremes
Researchers from UNIGE and KIT found that traditional numerical models remain more reliable for predicting extreme phenomena than AI-based forecasts. The study highlights the limitations of AI weather models in extrapolating beyond their training domain, making them less effective for record-breaking events.
Atmospheric systems control the transport of rainfall and nutrient from Africa to the Amazon
Scientists discover atmospheric connection between African dust aerosols and Amazonian nutrient cycles. Researchers use daily black carbon measurements and global meteorological data to investigate variability of atmospheric cleanliness in the Amazon.
Sharks may help improve climate forecasts, study finds
A new study demonstrates that animal-borne sensors, such as those on tagged sharks, can enhance ocean forecast accuracy in regions with limited observational data. By incorporating shark-collected temperature and depth data into a seasonal climate model, forecast errors decreased substantially, particularly in coastal and shelf regions.
Transient windstorms pose danger to railroad transport—how can we tackle it?
A recent study has developed an analytical model of downburst wind fields, which reproduces key observable features while adhering to fundamental mechanical principles. The model proposes a framework for assessing train overturning due to downbursts, with high train speeds identified as the most significant contributor to increased risk.
Pacific annular warming elevates the 2026/27 El Niño prediction
Researchers have forecasted a super El Niño event toward the end of 2026, driven by a rare and extreme surface annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific. The current heat content buildup alone would generate a moderate El Niño, but adding the influence of annular warming intensifies it into the super category.
AMS science preview: AI forecast limits, unpredictable hurricanes, simplified heat index
New research from the American Meteorological Society explores AI forecasting limits, the impact of climate change on hurricane trends, and simplifies the heat index. The studies find that machine learning can outperform numerical physics-based models in certain conditions, but not universally.
Traveling tropical disturbance increases rainfall across the Hawaiian Islands
Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo and George Mason University scientists mine past air temperature forecasts, lower cost with greater subseasonal prediction accuracy
Researchers at Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo and George Mason University developed a new method called Lagged Ensemble Analog Sub-selection (LEAS) to improve air temperature forecasts one to five weeks in advance. This approach selectively retains past ensemble members with high predictive skill, improving fo...
Reading’s weather history retold in new book
The book chronicles two centuries of weather stories and observations, including Britain's longest continuous daily weather records. It highlights the diversity of British weather, from scorching summers to devastating floods, and shares insights into climate change.
Fantastic fungi found with ability to freeze water
Researchers have identified fungal proteins that can catalyze ice formation at high subzero temperatures, making them a potential alternative to toxic silver iodide in cloud seeding. The discovery could lead to safer weather modification and improved food preservation techniques.
The results are in! ECMWF’s AI Weather Quest concludes latest period
MicroEnsemble wins AI Weather Quest, demonstrating improved sub-seasonal weather forecasting accuracy. The team uses AI technologies to post-process state-of-the-art forecasts, achieving consistent performance across various weather variables.
AMS Science Preview: Mississippi River, ocean carbon storage, gender and floods
Researchers investigated the Mississippi River's hydrological trends, ocean carbon storage, and gender dynamics in flood mortality. A study found that precipitation increases, but soil moisture decreases, while high-resolution models reveal stronger Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Additionally, data showed men are overrepresented in ...
American Meteorological Society responds to NSF regarding the future of NCAR
The American Meteorological Society strongly opposes the dismantling of NCAR, highlighting its central role in atmospheric sciences and its impact on the nation's economy. The AMS recommends that NSF engage in a rigorous process to develop a strategy for enhancing scientific innovation in the weather enterprise.
Can artificial intelligence help reduce the carbon footprint of weather forecasting models?
New research published in Weather assesses the energy consumption of AI models and finds that they consume considerable energy during training, but offset this by rapid forecasting ability. AI data-driven models are estimated to consume at least 21 times less energy than traditional models over one-year usage.
New AI agent could transform how scientists study weather and climate
Researchers developed Zephyrus, an AI agent capable of analyzing and answering questions in natural language about weather and climate data. The agent can handle language-based queries, translating them into code and generating plain language answers.
ECMWF’s portable global forecasting model OpenIFS now available for all
The OpenIFS model, a portable version of the global forecasting model used by ECMWF, is now available for all, making it easier to collaborate and generate new ideas. The change will support reproducible research and keep users current with the latest updates.
Thunderstorms don’t just appear out of thin air - scientists' key finding to improve forecasting
Researchers found interactions between soil moisture patterns and wind in the lowest atmosphere influence where storms develop, providing clues to forecasters about location. The study aims to improve certainty about upcoming storms on hot days and save lives, livestock, and property.
Dangerous thunderstorms: Better models through soil-moisture data
A research team analyzed 2.2 million thunderstorm events to identify a physical explanation for their formation. The study found that differences in soil moisture generate near-surface winds, leading to intense thunderstorms. High-resolution satellite measurements of soil moisture were crucial for this analysis.
Code for Earth launches 2026 climate and weather data challenges
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is launching its 2026 climate and weather data challenges to improve rapid decision-making during wildfires, explore flood forecast data from 10,000 stations globally, and detect implausible behavior in machine learning. The deadline for applications is April 9, 2026.
Early-summer Arctic ice melt impacts late-summer Indian monsoon rainfall
Researchers found a strong inverse correlation between Arctic sea ice extent and Indian summer monsoon rainfall on interannual timescales. Decreased Arctic sea ice variability during June to July leads to increased rainfall over western and northwestern India, indicating a westward shift in the monsoon season.
Rising simultaneous wildfire risk compromises international firefighting efforts
Scientists warn that synchronised extreme fire weather, characterized by warm and dry conditions, has increased worldwide since 1979, straining international firefighting cooperation. The number of high-risk days with simultaneous fires is more than doubling, making wildfires harder to tackle and increasing air quality issues.
AMS Science Preview: Hurricane slowdown, school snow days
A new study finds that U.S. tornado activity is shifting southeastward due to the relationship between extratropical cyclones and low-pressure systems. Additionally, global warming has led to a fourfold increase in tropical cyclone rapid slowdown events in coastal areas.
Tornado-forecast system can increase warning lead times, study finds
Researchers at the University of Kansas have developed a tornado-forecast system called Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) that can predict tornado formation up to an hour before it occurs. The system uses high-resolution simulations and gauges uncertainties, providing guidance on severe weather threats.
Wood burning in homes drives dangerous air pollution in winter
Residential wood burning accounts for over one-fifth of wintertime exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter, linked to increased risks of heart disease and premature death. By reducing indoor wood burning, Americans could decrease outdoor air pollution and save thousands of lives.
Research Article | Evaluation of ten satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets on a daily basis for Czechia (2001–2021)
A new study evaluates the accuracy of ten satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets using in-situ rain gauge measurements across Czechia from 2001 to 2021. The GSMaP dataset showed superior performance for rainy days, while ERA5-Land overestimated annual precipitation by 15–35%.
American Meteorological Society announces new executive director
Amanda Staudt will lead the American Meteorological Society, advancing the atmospheric and related sciences for public safety, economic security, and environmental stewardship. With extensive experience in connecting science to society, Staudt aims to bring people together to amplify AMS's voices.
Scientific insights into the frequency and formation conditions of unique clouds around Mount Fuji Nov. 25, 2025
Researchers studied unique clouds around Mount Fuji, classifying them into subtypes and determining occurrence frequencies. Tsurushi clouds were generated by mountain waves, while Hata clouds displayed different seasonal patterns, indicating a distinct cloud category.
Cleaner ship fuel is reducing lightning in key shipping lanes, research finds
Research from the University of Kansas finds that cuts in sulfur emissions from oceangoing vessels have led to a reduction in lightning stroke density along heavily trafficked shipping routes in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. The drop in sulfates from ships can cause fewer cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in weaker convecti...
Nagoya University ISEE Award recognizes typhoon research that transformed storm intensity forecasting worldwide
The Nagoya University ISEE Award has recognized Professor Hiroyuki Yamada's pioneering work on high-altitude penetration flight observation techniques for typhoons. His research enabled scientists to observe the complete vertical structure of typhoons, providing unprecedented data on storm intensity.
New Director-General puts collaboration, innovation, computing and people at the heart of ECMWF
The new ECMWF Director-General, Florian Pappenberger, emphasizes the importance of collaboration, innovation, and people-centric approaches. He plans to leverage high-performance computing, AI, and data assimilation to advance weather and climate prediction.
AMS releases statement regarding the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) urges the US government to maintain and strengthen NSF NCAR, a critical resource for weather forecasting and climate science. This would lead to further forecast improvements that benefit the nation's safety and economy.
AMS Science Preview: Volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air
Recent research reveals that volcanic eruptions can cause unpredictable weather patterns, including volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air. The study also found that the Antarctic surface atmosphere has become less stable and more prone to gravity waves since the 1950s.
Storms in the Southern Ocean mitigates global warming
Research shows that intense storms in the Southern Ocean enable it to absorb more heat from the atmosphere. This helps regulate Earth's climate by reducing global warming. The study found that stronger storm activity generates lower surface temperatures across the ocean.
Ateneo, Manila Observatory track down elusive rain-triggering ‘shear lines’
Scientists developed an objective index for monitoring and detecting shear lines over the Philippines, accounting for up to 20% of extreme rainfall days. The detection method is useful for weather forecasting, early warning systems, and understanding how this weather system evolves.
Sky-high smoke
A study published in Science Advances found that unusually large particles of wildfire smoke had a significant cooling effect on the region they were observed in, increasing outgoing radiation by 30-36% compared to smaller smoke particles. This effect has not been included in current climate models.
AMS 2026 Meeting showcases atmospheric science and the “human factor”
The 106th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society will focus on the intersection of technology and human decision-making in weather, water, and climate sciences. The meeting will feature keynote presentations, Presidential Sessions, and named symposia highlighting key Earth science topics.
Rapid changes in meteorological conditions govern how plants influence climate and air quality
A new study reveals that plant gas emissions are triggered by rapid changes in weather, not just dry conditions. The research shows that vegetation responds immediately to shifts in humidity and temperature, changing the rate of emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) into the air.
Scientists detect new climate pattern in the tropics
Researchers at ISTA and others have discovered a previously unknown cyclic climate pattern, known as TWISO, which influences weather fluctuations and seasonal changes. This finding has implications for predicting tropical storms and saving lives.
Study provides new forecasts of remote islands’ vulnerability to sea level rise
A new study has analyzed a rare flooding event in the Maldives in July 2022 and found it could become a far more common occurrence in the future. By 2050, predicted rises in sea levels, coupled with increased extreme weather events, may result in such flooding happening every two to three years.
Atlantic multidecadal oscillation identified as key driver of compound hot drought events over Northern East Asia
Researchers identified AMO as key driver of compound hot drought events in Northern East Asia, with periods of weakening and strengthening linked to changes in climate. The study provides a new physical perspective for understanding variability in the region's hot droughts and offers insights for improving decadal climate prediction.
Fire in the sky: Strong summer storms in the Midwest send wildfire smoke into the previously pristine stratosphere
Research shows strong Midwest summer storms can puncture the stratosphere, bringing aerosols and burning biomass from western wildfires. This could affect the ozone layer's stability and warm the stratosphere.
Leopoldina and Stifterverband honor atmospheric researcher Johannes Lelieveld with the 2024 Carl-Friedrich-von-Weizsäcker-Prize
Johannes Lelieveld's research on air quality, emissions, and climate change has demonstrated the interconnectedness of these issues. His work provides new insights into human health risks and informs policy decisions to address pressing societal challenges.
In the face of extreme weather events’ devastating effects on power grids, study identifies vulnerabilities that drive prolonged outages, suggests ways to reduce disruptions
Researchers analyzed power outage data and weather records to identify planning vulnerabilities and criticality as drivers of prolonged local outages. Targeted interventions, such as isolating critical nodes and improving operational flexibility, can reduce customer outages by up to 49.5%.
AMS science preview: global heat record false? Rainier storms
Recent research from the American Meteorological Society reveals a false global heat record, suggests that severe weather events are increasing in frequency, and predicts an expansion of fire-prone areas. The study also examines the impact of cold wakes on tropical cyclone rainfall and finds that they intensify with global warming.
University of Oklahoma secures $19.9 million for revolutionary radar technology
The University of Oklahoma will receive a $19.9 million award to develop the KaRVIR system, a groundbreaking dual-Doppler 3D mobile Ka-band imaging radar that will enhance atmospheric science research and provide critical insights into weather systems and wildfires.
Purdue study uncovers why some hurricanes balloon in size and what that means for forecasting future storms
A new study by Purdue University researchers reveals that hurricanes grow in size faster when traveling over locally warm waters, which can help improve daily forecasting of hurricane size and impacts. This discovery has the potential to better model hurricane size in long-term risk models used by industry.
WMO report on global water resources: 2024 was characterized by both extreme drought and intense rainfall
The WMO report reveals that 2024 was marked by severe drought in the Amazon basin and Southern Africa, while Central Europe experienced excessive rainfall, leading to devastating floods. Glaciers globally lost 450 billion metric tons of ice, accelerating climate change impacts.
Weather-health alert system is a success, but colour-coded confusion still remains, says new research
The UK's new weather-health alert system has been deemed successful in supporting vulnerable groups, but minor confusion remains around its color-coded warnings. Researchers identified areas for improvement, including clearer yellow alert scales and simplified alerts for rapid use on the ground.
How pre- and post-monsoon information can shape cyclone preparedness in the Bay of Bengal
Researchers found significant differences in oceanic conditions between pre- and post-monsoon tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal. The study highlights the importance of seasonality in cyclone intensity and the ocean's response, with potential applications for predicting cyclone impacts and developing early warning tools.
Lightning to spark more wildfires in western US in coming decades
A new study predicts an increase in western US wildfires sparked by lightning strikes, with 98% of the region seeing more risk days by 2060. The western US is expected to see a significant rise in lightning days, with areas like Oregon and Idaho experiencing up to 12 more days per summer.
New Zealand-German collaboration in atmospheric research: Clouds over New Zealand to be studied intensively for a year and a half
Researchers will study atmospheric conditions in pristine New Zealand region, exploring effects of air pollution on cloud formation. The goal is to improve weather and climate forecasts for the Southern Hemisphere.
Scientists track lightning “pollution” in real time using NASA satellite
Researchers from the University of Maryland tracked lightning storms in real-time using NASA's TEMPO instrument, detecting nitrogen oxide emissions that affect climate and air quality. The study reveals how lightning can produce pollutants that travel long distances, influencing air quality far from the original storm.
High Mountain Asia’s shrinking glaciers linked to monsoon changes
Research from the University of Utah and Virginia Tech reveals that seasonal shifts in rainfall and snowfall patterns are exacerbating glacier melting across the region. Glaciers in Central Himalaya, Western Himalaya, and Eastern Himalaya are especially vulnerable to accelerated ice loss and water availability threats.
Hot days make for icy weather, Philippine study finds
A new Philippine study reveals that the country's hottest days are more likely to produce hail, contradicting its typical balmy climate. The research used satellite and radar data to confirm the presence of strong updrafts and favorable conditions for hailstorms during hot periods.
Wind isn’t the only threat: USF-led scientists urge shift to more informed hurricane scale
A new model incorporates rainfall and storm surge, leading causes of hurricane deaths. The proposed scale aims to improve evacuation decisions by providing a more accurate picture of the storm's severity.