Articles tagged with Meteorology
A new study establishes a fundamental limit of weather prediction at 129 days under ideal conditions, where errors smaller than today's forecasts may behave. This finding offers forecasters a new perspective and a tangible target for future advancements.
Researchers identified a recurring setup of atmospheric conditions that lead to prolonged periods of intense rainfall. The study found that existing operational weather forecasts can capture these large-scale patterns, paving the way for more accurate predictions of high-impact southwest monsoon events.
A Virginia Tech team analyzed over 1,000 storm surge events to identify distinct patterns that depend on both storm characteristics and coastal geography. The findings could help engineers design infrastructure to withstand unique flood timelines and support better planning and decision making for coastal communities.
Scientists have discovered a new process that forms cloud-forming particles in the Arctic atmosphere when melting sea ice meets open ocean. This combination of marine life and sunlight releases a chemical mixture that seeds the sky with particles, increasing cloud cover and affecting global climate.
The American Meteorological Society recognizes individuals and organizations making a positive difference in the world through fundamental research, public engagement, teaching, and informed decision-making. This year's honorees include Rong Fu, Paola Cessi, Sharon Nicholson, Renhe Zhang, Christian Kummerow, and David Thompson.
Researchers analyzed the 2025 Texas Hill Country floods, which killed at least 135 people, including 28 at Camp Mystic. Experimental models showed they could have predicted extreme flows with greater lead time.
MIT researchers developed framework to make climate-informed energy siting choices, showing how location affects energy system resilience and reducing blackouts. Climate-informed energy siting reduces energy shortfalls by up to fivefold in regions like New England and Texas.
A new study reveals that temperature changes in the Indian Ocean can significantly influence winter weather thousands of kilometers away in the Eastern Mediterranean, offering new opportunities to predict damaging dry spells months before they occur. Positive phases of the Indian Ocean Dipole are linked to large-scale shifts in atmosph...
A University of California, Davis study found that melting icebergs in the North Pacific Ocean can weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a crucial conveyor belt regulating the global climate. This weakening can lead to subsurface warming, releasing more iceberg meltwater and further impacting AMOC.
A study found that forecast error types influence public emotion during disasters, with anxiety and worry being the most common emotions. The researchers suggest that communicating forecast uncertainty effectively could improve public trust and reduce emotional distress during future extreme weather events.
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has released a statement expressing concerns about the proposed OMB rule on federal grantmaking changes. The rule could reduce public access to weather information, slow commercialization of advances in weather science, and limit scientific collaboration.
Destination Earth is a European Union-funded initiative that aims to build a digital replica of the Earth system by 2030. The project integrates climate change adaptation and weather-induced extreme events with AI capabilities, providing flexible simulation frameworks for tailored information on impacts and potential evolutions.
The ECMWF's global forecasting system now incorporates new cloud radar data from the ESA-JAXA EarthCARE space mission, enhancing weather forecasting accuracy. This move is expected to improve predictions for extreme weather events like typhoons and heavy rainfall.
New studies reveal potential for 30-day forecast accuracy boosts using machine learning and explore the impact of vegetation on ocean currents during the Little Ice Age. Researchers also find that La Niña events can slow global warming by amplifying each other's cooling effects.
A new El Niño index compares warming in the central Pacific with temperatures across the wider tropics, providing a clearer picture of unusual conditions. The Relative Niño index is more suited for monitoring and comparing events over time, reducing sensitivity to global warming trends.
Researchers propose a framework for on-demand atmospheric observations using lightweight, low-cost profiling systems to improve short-term forecasting and climate resilience. Community-operated systems could fill critical gaps in existing forecasting systems, particularly in remote regions.
A new study finds that hail conditions are changing due to global warming, with warmer regions experiencing a decrease in summer hail risk and cooler regions facing an increase in winter hail risk. The shift is attributed to changes in atmospheric conditions, including the melting of frozen hailstones and the formation of stronger storms.
Researchers identified two weather patterns associated with an increased risk of headaches in the Northeast US. The study found that approaching cold fronts and high-pressure systems, such as the Bermuda High, can trigger new-onset headaches in people with episodic migraines.
A new AI-powered translation program developed by the National Weather Service (NWS) translates weather forecasts into multiple languages, including Spanish, Chinese, Vietnamese, Samoan, and French. The program aims to provide life-saving information to over 68 million US residents who do not speak English at home.
Professor Hannah Cloke's appointment as Regius Professor of Meteorology and Climate highlights the importance of human imagination in understanding and mitigating extreme weather. Her research has already helped communities prepare for floods and extreme weather, and she aims to empower people to take charge of their own futures.
Researchers found that small-scale thunderstorms strengthen over cities, while cold frontal storms weaken their rainfall intensity. Urban heat and roughness disrupt the lower part of storm systems, leading to varying effects on different types of storms.
Researchers have found that aerosols and clouds in polluted regions grow faster, leading to a slower rate of global warming in Asia and Africa. This is due to the increased hygroscopicity of particles in urban and populated areas, which can absorb more water vapor and influence cloud formation.
Recent studies investigate the relationship between weather conditions and extreme events like heat-related mortality, tropical cyclone hazards, and changes in precipitation patterns. Researchers also explore new modeling methods to predict visually appealing atmospheric phenomena like 'ornamental twilight'.
A new probabilistic model developed by Kyoto University shows that about 50 to 60 percent of the variance in typhoon intensity can be explained by spatial ocean surface temperature (SST) patterns and increasing average SST due to climate change.
The European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is upgrading its key forecasting systems, the Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the Artificial Intelligence/Integrated Forecasting System (AIFS), to improve weather forecast accuracy. The upgrades include enhancements to ocean- sea ice interactions, wave forecasts, and s...
Researchers from South China University of Technology reconstructed the path and intensity of a devastating EF3-level tornado that occurred in Guangzhou, China on April 27, 2024. The study used a combination of UAV remote sensing, ground-based surveys, and mesoscale numerical simulation to analyze the tornado's damage mechanisms.
Researchers use Swarm satellites and ground-based observations to distinguish between space weather effects and natural hazard signatures. This project aims to improve infrastructure protection, early warning systems, and space weather predictions.
Researchers from UNIGE and KIT found that traditional numerical models remain more reliable for predicting extreme phenomena than AI-based forecasts. The study highlights the limitations of AI weather models in extrapolating beyond their training domain, making them less effective for record-breaking events.
Scientists discover atmospheric connection between African dust aerosols and Amazonian nutrient cycles. Researchers use daily black carbon measurements and global meteorological data to investigate variability of atmospheric cleanliness in the Amazon.
A new study demonstrates that animal-borne sensors, such as those on tagged sharks, can enhance ocean forecast accuracy in regions with limited observational data. By incorporating shark-collected temperature and depth data into a seasonal climate model, forecast errors decreased substantially, particularly in coastal and shelf regions.
A recent study has developed an analytical model of downburst wind fields, which reproduces key observable features while adhering to fundamental mechanical principles. The model proposes a framework for assessing train overturning due to downbursts, with high train speeds identified as the most significant contributor to increased risk.
Researchers have forecasted a super El Niño event toward the end of 2026, driven by a rare and extreme surface annular warming pattern in the tropical Pacific. The current heat content buildup alone would generate a moderate El Niño, but adding the influence of annular warming intensifies it into the super category.
New research from the American Meteorological Society explores AI forecasting limits, the impact of climate change on hurricane trends, and simplifies the heat index. The studies find that machine learning can outperform numerical physics-based models in certain conditions, but not universally.
A new study reveals that the Madden–Julian Oscillation significantly influences climate conditions in Hawaiʻi, increasing rainfall on windward slopes during active phases and producing drier conditions during suppressed phases. Understanding this impact can help scientists and forecasters anticipate periods of heavy rainfall and drought.
Researchers at Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo and George Mason University developed a new method called Lagged Ensemble Analog Sub-selection (LEAS) to improve air temperature forecasts one to five weeks in advance. This approach selectively retains past ensemble members with high predictive skill, improving fo...
The book chronicles two centuries of weather stories and observations, including Britain's longest continuous daily weather records. It highlights the diversity of British weather, from scorching summers to devastating floods, and shares insights into climate change.
Researchers have identified fungal proteins that can catalyze ice formation at high subzero temperatures, making them a potential alternative to toxic silver iodide in cloud seeding. The discovery could lead to safer weather modification and improved food preservation techniques.
MicroEnsemble wins AI Weather Quest, demonstrating improved sub-seasonal weather forecasting accuracy. The team uses AI technologies to post-process state-of-the-art forecasts, achieving consistent performance across various weather variables.
Researchers investigated the Mississippi River's hydrological trends, ocean carbon storage, and gender dynamics in flood mortality. A study found that precipitation increases, but soil moisture decreases, while high-resolution models reveal stronger Southern Ocean carbon absorption. Additionally, data showed men are overrepresented in ...
The American Meteorological Society strongly opposes the dismantling of NCAR, highlighting its central role in atmospheric sciences and its impact on the nation's economy. The AMS recommends that NSF engage in a rigorous process to develop a strategy for enhancing scientific innovation in the weather enterprise.
New research published in Weather assesses the energy consumption of AI models and finds that they consume considerable energy during training, but offset this by rapid forecasting ability. AI data-driven models are estimated to consume at least 21 times less energy than traditional models over one-year usage.
Researchers developed Zephyrus, an AI agent capable of analyzing and answering questions in natural language about weather and climate data. The agent can handle language-based queries, translating them into code and generating plain language answers.
The OpenIFS model, a portable version of the global forecasting model used by ECMWF, is now available for all, making it easier to collaborate and generate new ideas. The change will support reproducible research and keep users current with the latest updates.
Researchers found interactions between soil moisture patterns and wind in the lowest atmosphere influence where storms develop, providing clues to forecasters about location. The study aims to improve certainty about upcoming storms on hot days and save lives, livestock, and property.
A research team analyzed 2.2 million thunderstorm events to identify a physical explanation for their formation. The study found that differences in soil moisture generate near-surface winds, leading to intense thunderstorms. High-resolution satellite measurements of soil moisture were crucial for this analysis.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is launching its 2026 climate and weather data challenges to improve rapid decision-making during wildfires, explore flood forecast data from 10,000 stations globally, and detect implausible behavior in machine learning. The deadline for applications is April 9, 2026.
Researchers found a strong inverse correlation between Arctic sea ice extent and Indian summer monsoon rainfall on interannual timescales. Decreased Arctic sea ice variability during June to July leads to increased rainfall over western and northwestern India, indicating a westward shift in the monsoon season.
Scientists warn that synchronised extreme fire weather, characterized by warm and dry conditions, has increased worldwide since 1979, straining international firefighting cooperation. The number of high-risk days with simultaneous fires is more than doubling, making wildfires harder to tackle and increasing air quality issues.
A new study finds that U.S. tornado activity is shifting southeastward due to the relationship between extratropical cyclones and low-pressure systems. Additionally, global warming has led to a fourfold increase in tropical cyclone rapid slowdown events in coastal areas.
Researchers at the University of Kansas have developed a tornado-forecast system called Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) that can predict tornado formation up to an hour before it occurs. The system uses high-resolution simulations and gauges uncertainties, providing guidance on severe weather threats.
Residential wood burning accounts for over one-fifth of wintertime exposure to outdoor fine particulate matter, linked to increased risks of heart disease and premature death. By reducing indoor wood burning, Americans could decrease outdoor air pollution and save thousands of lives.
A new study evaluates the accuracy of ten satellite-based and reanalysis precipitation datasets using in-situ rain gauge measurements across Czechia from 2001 to 2021. The GSMaP dataset showed superior performance for rainy days, while ERA5-Land overestimated annual precipitation by 15–35%.
Amanda Staudt will lead the American Meteorological Society, advancing the atmospheric and related sciences for public safety, economic security, and environmental stewardship. With extensive experience in connecting science to society, Staudt aims to bring people together to amplify AMS's voices.
Researchers studied unique clouds around Mount Fuji, classifying them into subtypes and determining occurrence frequencies. Tsurushi clouds were generated by mountain waves, while Hata clouds displayed different seasonal patterns, indicating a distinct cloud category.
Research from the University of Kansas finds that cuts in sulfur emissions from oceangoing vessels have led to a reduction in lightning stroke density along heavily trafficked shipping routes in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. The drop in sulfates from ships can cause fewer cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in weaker convecti...
The Nagoya University ISEE Award has recognized Professor Hiroyuki Yamada's pioneering work on high-altitude penetration flight observation techniques for typhoons. His research enabled scientists to observe the complete vertical structure of typhoons, providing unprecedented data on storm intensity.
The new ECMWF Director-General, Florian Pappenberger, emphasizes the importance of collaboration, innovation, and people-centric approaches. He plans to leverage high-performance computing, AI, and data assimilation to advance weather and climate prediction.
The American Meteorological Society (AMS) urges the US government to maintain and strengthen NSF NCAR, a critical resource for weather forecasting and climate science. This would lead to further forecast improvements that benefit the nation's safety and economy.
Recent research reveals that volcanic eruptions can cause unpredictable weather patterns, including volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air. The study also found that the Antarctic surface atmosphere has become less stable and more prone to gravity waves since the 1950s.
Research shows that intense storms in the Southern Ocean enable it to absorb more heat from the atmosphere. This helps regulate Earth's climate by reducing global warming. The study found that stronger storm activity generates lower surface temperatures across the ocean.