Weather Forecasting
Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
AMS Science Preview: “Ornamental twilight,” heat deaths, hurricane eyes
When the Schuylkill swallowed the city: Lessons from Hurricane Ida’s historic flood
AI falls short in predicting weather extremes
Researchers from UNIGE and KIT found that traditional numerical models remain more reliable for predicting extreme phenomena than AI-based forecasts. The study highlights the limitations of AI weather models in extrapolating beyond their training domain, making them less effective for record-breaking events.
Better weather forecasts and climate models could come from new desert-dust research
A UCLA-led study reveals that airborne desert dust traps about twice as much heat as previously estimated, leading to improved climate and weather models. This increase in precision will help forecasters predict regional temperature shifts, rainfall patterns, and atmospheric motions.
AMS science preview: AI forecast limits, unpredictable hurricanes, simplified heat index
New research from the American Meteorological Society explores AI forecasting limits, the impact of climate change on hurricane trends, and simplifies the heat index. The studies find that machine learning can outperform numerical physics-based models in certain conditions, but not universally.
Tiny particles in Arctic ponds may play role in cloud formation, climate change
Researchers from Colorado State University found that tiny particles bubbling up from melting sea ice in the Arctic sky can create clouds, providing a platform for water vapor to freeze onto. This discovery sheds light on why Arctic clouds behave differently and could help improve weather modeling and climate change predictions.
Why does global numerical weather prediction model fail to accurately forecast 21.7 Zhengzhou extreme precipitation?
The study found that complex terrain, particularly orographic gravity wave drag, significantly affects the location and intensity of extreme precipitation. Without this effect, the low-level mesoscale vortex moves westward, leading to decreased rainfall intensity and a northwestward shift of the rainfall center.
Fantastic fungi found with ability to freeze water
Researchers have identified fungal proteins that can catalyze ice formation at high subzero temperatures, making them a potential alternative to toxic silver iodide in cloud seeding. The discovery could lead to safer weather modification and improved food preservation techniques.
Can artificial intelligence help reduce the carbon footprint of weather forecasting models?
New research published in Weather assesses the energy consumption of AI models and finds that they consume considerable energy during training, but offset this by rapid forecasting ability. AI data-driven models are estimated to consume at least 21 times less energy than traditional models over one-year usage.
New AI agent could transform how scientists study weather and climate
Researchers developed Zephyrus, an AI agent capable of analyzing and answering questions in natural language about weather and climate data. The agent can handle language-based queries, translating them into code and generating plain language answers.
Thunderstorms don’t just appear out of thin air - scientists' key finding to improve forecasting
Researchers found interactions between soil moisture patterns and wind in the lowest atmosphere influence where storms develop, providing clues to forecasters about location. The study aims to improve certainty about upcoming storms on hot days and save lives, livestock, and property.
AMS Science Preview: Hurricane slowdown, school snow days
A new study finds that U.S. tornado activity is shifting southeastward due to the relationship between extratropical cyclones and low-pressure systems. Additionally, global warming has led to a fourfold increase in tropical cyclone rapid slowdown events in coastal areas.
Seeing the whole from a part: Revealing hidden turbulent structures from limited observations and equations
Researchers discovered that only observing the flow down to a specific scale is enough to reconstruct the full motion of fluid in two-dimensional turbulence, unlike three-dimensional systems. This finding has significant implications for modeling and prediction in atmospheric and ocean circulation.
New study identifies warning signs for extreme flash flooding
Researchers at Newcastle University and the UK Met Office identified a three-layered atmospheric structure associated with heavy rainfall developing within minutes. The findings help explain record-breaking rainfall and flash floods in the UAE and Oman in April 2024, and may aid future improvements in identifying risk.
Research clarifies record-late monsoon onset, aiding northern Australian communities
A recent study has clarified the record-late monsoon onset in Australia, defining its critical impact on water security and cattle industry. The researchers found that local wind conditions over Darwin prevented the upper-level winds from switching to easterlies.
Tornado-forecast system can increase warning lead times, study finds
Researchers at the University of Kansas have developed a tornado-forecast system called Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) that can predict tornado formation up to an hour before it occurs. The system uses high-resolution simulations and gauges uncertainties, providing guidance on severe weather threats.
Cleaner ship fuel is reducing lightning in key shipping lanes, research finds
Research from the University of Kansas finds that cuts in sulfur emissions from oceangoing vessels have led to a reduction in lightning stroke density along heavily trafficked shipping routes in the Bay of Bengal and South China Sea. The drop in sulfates from ships can cause fewer cloud condensation nuclei, resulting in weaker convecti...
Application of orthogonal CNOP-I in a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system based on CMA-MESO for improving extreme precipitation skill
Researchers improve extreme precipitation forecast accuracy using a novel CNOP-I scheme in a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system. The new method captures nonlinear evolution characteristics of weather systems, leading to more accurate predictions and reduced uncertainty.
Combining satellite and regional numerical weather prediction effectively enhances the ability to forecast solar radiation
Researchers Min Chen and Liangchen Guo developed a new system using Fengyun-4B satellite data and regional numerical forecast model RMAPS-ST to improve ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting. The system achieved significant reductions in forecast errors, particularly in warm seasons and short-term forecasts.
AMS Science Preview: Volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air
Recent research reveals that volcanic eruptions can cause unpredictable weather patterns, including volcanic rain, dust storms, and unstable Antarctic air. The study also found that the Antarctic surface atmosphere has become less stable and more prone to gravity waves since the 1950s.
UF dives deep into predicting storm damage with computer models
A team of researchers used innovative approaches, including public data and machine learning models, to create more accurate predictions of coastal erosion and infrastructure damage. The project aims to improve storm preparedness and timeliness.
AMS 2026 Meeting showcases atmospheric science and the “human factor”
The 106th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society will focus on the intersection of technology and human decision-making in weather, water, and climate sciences. The meeting will feature keynote presentations, Presidential Sessions, and named symposia highlighting key Earth science topics.
Over half of global coastal settlements are retreating inland due to intensifying climate risks
Over half of global coastal settlements have retreated from the coast over the past 30 years in response to intensifying climate hazards. Coastal regions in Africa and Oceania lead the retreat, while poorer regions often expand shoreline settlements due to economic needs.
Improving snowfall forecasts in the Mountain West
Researchers at the University of Utah have developed a new model to predict the snow-to-liquid ratio, which varies widely in the Western United States. By training a random forest model on high-quality data from 14 mountain sites, they were able to explain nearly half of the variability in snow density compared to existing methods.
AMS Science Preview: Railways and cyclones; pinned clouds; weather warnings in wartime
Researchers investigate how adjacent cities exacerbate each other's heat island effects. A study also highlights the need for improved hindcasting infrastructure in climate science. Additionally, a campaign monitors pinned clouds over industrial sources of heat and finds that trees are more reliable against heat stress than buildings.
UAlbany Atmospheric scientists awarded $855K NOAA grant for water isotope research
Researchers at UAlbany are exploring the use of stable water isotopes to improve weather and climate forecasts. By analyzing differences in isotope masses, scientists can track moisture movement and understand related processes.
Purdue study uncovers why some hurricanes balloon in size and what that means for forecasting future storms
A new study by Purdue University researchers reveals that hurricanes grow in size faster when traveling over locally warm waters, which can help improve daily forecasting of hurricane size and impacts. This discovery has the potential to better model hurricane size in long-term risk models used by industry.
Weather-health alert system is a success, but colour-coded confusion still remains, says new research
The UK's new weather-health alert system has been deemed successful in supporting vulnerable groups, but minor confusion remains around its color-coded warnings. Researchers identified areas for improvement, including clearer yellow alert scales and simplified alerts for rapid use on the ground.
AI boosts National Weather Model flood prediction accuracy sixfold
A new study developed a flood-forecasting AI that can be tuned for any country, reducing errors in national flood prediction programming. The hybrid model combining the AI with the National Water Model was four to six times more accurate, improving forecast accuracy and potential economic impacts of floods.
Lightning to spark more wildfires in western US in coming decades
A new study predicts an increase in western US wildfires sparked by lightning strikes, with 98% of the region seeing more risk days by 2060. The western US is expected to see a significant rise in lightning days, with areas like Oregon and Idaho experiencing up to 12 more days per summer.
Pusan National University researchers reveal how uneven ocean warming is altering propagation of the Madden-Julian oscillation
The Madden-Julian Oscillation's speed and intensity are influenced by atmospheric stability, which affects regional convection and tropical cyclones. Uneven ocean warming changes MJO behavior, impacting rainfall patterns and climate forecasts.
Scientists track lightning “pollution” in real time using NASA satellite
Researchers from the University of Maryland tracked lightning storms in real-time using NASA's TEMPO instrument, detecting nitrogen oxide emissions that affect climate and air quality. The study reveals how lightning can produce pollutants that travel long distances, influencing air quality far from the original storm.
Wind isn’t the only threat: USF-led scientists urge shift to more informed hurricane scale
A new model incorporates rainfall and storm surge, leading causes of hurricane deaths. The proposed scale aims to improve evacuation decisions by providing a more accurate picture of the storm's severity.
New AI tool tracks early signs of hurricane formation
A new AI system developed by the University of Miami Rosenstiel School can automatically identify and track tropical easterly waves, separating them from other tropical wind patterns. The model combines historical observations with reanalysis data to produce accurate real-time forecasts.
Moisture changes the rules of atmospheric traffic jams
New research from Purdue University reveals how moisture influences atmospheric blocking, a phenomenon that often drives heat waves, droughts, cold outbreaks and floods. The study introduces a new mechanism showing that moisture-induced diabatic heating strengthens ridge blocks but weakens dipole blocks.
Application of advanced convective entrainment and topography parameterizations improves precipitation simulation over the Tibetan plateau
Researchers improved WRF model precipitation simulation by optimizing Grell-Freitas cumulus scheme and Turbulent Orographic Form Drag scheme. This approach reduced overestimation of precipitation across the Tibetan Plateau.
Pronounced advance on typhoon track forecast with global convection-permitting model
Researchers developed a 3-km resolution model that achieved unprecedented accuracy, reducing track errors to below 100 km over a 120-hour forecast period. The innovative variable mesh refinement strategy balances computational demands with accuracy while targeting key weather systems influencing typhoon motion.
China Meteorological Administration improves tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy
The China Meteorological Administration has demonstrated significant improvements in both track and intensity prediction accuracy for tropical cyclones. The study finds that track forecast errors have reduced, particularly at longer lead times, while intensity forecasts have also shown advancements.
The key to lowering your water bill may already be at your door
The ERIC system combines doorbell cameras and AI to analyze rainfall estimation and automatically adjusts irrigation schedules for more precise water use. Researchers estimate users can save up to $29/month in utility costs and 9,000 gallons of water per month with the innovative irrigation system.
AMS science preview: New lightning record, fewer hurricanes, fire forecasts
Recent research from American Meteorological Society journals predicts a new record for lightning and a decrease in hurricane frequency. Additionally, fire forecasts have been updated to better manage water resources in Colorado's Gunnison River Basin.
Do you want to freeze a cloud? Desert dust might help
Researchers at ETH Zurich found that mineral dust particles can trigger freezing of cloud droplets, particularly important in northern regions where clouds form below freezing temperatures. This process affects sunlight reflection and precipitation generation, with major implications for climate models.
Engineer's work aims to improve tropical storm predictions
Tiny droplets of sea spray can affect hurricane intensity, but measuring their concentration and size is challenging. Researchers at the University of Texas at Dallas are using lab experiments and simulations to develop a machine learning model that incorporates these factors.
Identifying landslide threats using hydrological predictors
A new framework developed by Northwestern University and UCLA scientists integrates various water-related processes with a machine-learning model to predict landslide threats. The framework identifies three main pathways leading to landslides: intense rainfall, rain on already saturated soils, and melting snow or ice.
New AI model brings breakthroughs in five-day regional weather forecasting
Researchers developed a novel deep learning-based framework that improves five-day regional weather forecasting accuracy, even with limited data. The method achieved significant improvements in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed forecasts, outperforming mainstream global AI models.
New study shows Hurricane Hunter flights significantly increase forecast accuracy
A new study published in Weather and Forecasting found that Hurricane Hunter flights can increase forecast accuracy by up to 24 percent. The researchers analyzed forecasts for all tropical cyclones in the Atlantic basin from 2018 to 2022, comparing forecasts with and without NOAA G-IV data.
Decline in aerosols could lead to more heatwaves in populated areas
A study found that declining aerosols are up to 2.5 times more influential than greenhouse gases in driving changes in heatwave occurrence in populated areas. Higher levels of aerosols suppressed heatwave exposure by reflecting the sun's rays, but this trend is now reversing due to clean air policies.
Philippine scientists warn vs. ‘indirect’ effect of tropical cyclones during monsoon season
Researchers found that indirect effects of tropical cyclones contribute more than twice the direct effect to rainfall during the Habagat season, with 51.5% coming from the monsoon itself. This new understanding can improve extreme weather anticipation and disaster response.
What’s driving America’s deep freezes in a warming world?
A new study reveals how variations in the stratospheric polar vortex affect where and when extreme cold hits, with a focus on the northwestern US. The research finds two distinct patterns that steer Arctic air into different areas, leading to colder winters in regions like Montana and Texas.
Extending classical CNOP method for deep-learning atmospheric and oceanic forecasting
The CNOP-DL method extends classical CNOP for deep learning methods, breaking deterministic causality and attributing forecast errors to all input slices. This new structure identifies critical time steps and locations where additional observations can significantly improve forecasts.
Alps could face a doubling in torrential summer rainfall frequency as temperatures rise by 2°C
A new study predicts that a 2°C temperature rise could double the frequency of short-lived summer downpours in the Alpine region, causing severe damage and posing risks to lives. The analysis of nearly 300 mountain weather stations found that warm air retains more moisture, intensifying thunderstorm activity.
How likely are extreme hot weather episodes in today’s UK climate?
Researchers estimate that temperatures several degrees above the 2022 UK heatwave are plausible in today's climate, with a simulated maximum of over 45°C (113°F). The likelihood of 40°C will continue to rise as the climate warms.
Naval Research Laboratory and NASA launch joint effort to study wildfire-induced thunderstorms
Scientists at the Naval Research Laboratory are working with NASA to better understand pyrocumulonimbus clouds, which can inject smoke into the upper atmosphere and alter weather patterns. The Injected Smoke and Pyrocumulonimbus Experiment (INSPYRE) aims to enhance predictive weather modeling through detailed analysis of wildfire-induc...
AMS announces 1,000 broadcast meteorologists certified
The American Meteorological Society has awarded its 1,000th CBM designation to Ryan Marando, a meteorologist at WHIO-TV in Dayton, OH. This milestone recognizes the expertise of on-air weather communicators in both meteorological science and forecasting.
Storm ready: FAU Sensing Institute’s weather network delivers real-time forecasting
The Florida Atlantic University Sensing Institute's SEA Econet network provides accurate rainfall and flood forecasting, supporting public safety during severe weather events. With over 160 atmospheric stations and more than 30 water-level stations across Florida, the network delivers real-time data to inform forecasts and warnings.
Cloudy with a chance of lifesaving and more cost-effective weather predictions
A team of researchers developed a machine learning model called Aurora that accurately forecasts various Earth systems, including air quality and tropical cyclone tracks. The model outperforms traditional systems at a fraction of the cost, enabling better preparedness for extreme weather events.
Wind-related hurricane losses for homeowners in the southeastern U.S. could be nearly 76 percent higher by 2060
A new study projects that wind losses for homeowners in the Southeast will increase by 76% by 2060 and 102% by 2100. Texas is expected to experience the highest increase in losses, followed by Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama.
AMS science preview: Heat stress and height, eclipse effects
Researchers have discovered that urban areas experience a greater difference in wet bulb globe temperature between 0.5 m and 1.5 m above ground due to surface heat radiation, posing health risks to children and pets during extreme heat events. Total solar eclipses also alter atmospheric conditions and insect behavior, with some species...
It’s not just El Niño: New climate phenomenon impacts Hawai‘i rainfall
A new study reveals that the Pacific Meridional Mode plays a major role in Hawaiian rainfall variability, particularly in spring. The research suggests that El Niño emerges as the primary driver of winter rainfall, but the PMM is crucial for spring rainfall, especially on Maui and the Island of Hawai‘i.
The atmospheric memory that feeds billions of people: Newly discovered mechanism for monsoon rainfall
A new study reveals the atmosphere can store moisture over extended periods, creating a physical memory effect. This 'memory' allows monsoon systems to flip between two stable states, with severe consequences for regions relying on monsoon rainfall.