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Predictability limit for tropical cyclones over the western North Pacific

Researchers used NLLE approach to estimate predictability limit of TCs over WNP basin, finding a baseline uncertainty of 102 hours comparable to TC intensity. The spatial distribution characteristics reveal varying predictability limits across regions, with highest in eastern WNP and lowest in South China Sea.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateOct 18, 2018