The advancement of science often begins with the identification and articulation of key questions. In 1900, the German mathematician David Hilbert presented 23 mathematical problems at the International Congress of Mathematicians in Paris, charting the course for 20th-century mathematics and influencing algebra, geometry, analysis, and many other branches. More than a century later, petroleum science—a discipline that underpins modern industrial civilization—faces a similar "problem-driven" moment.
In its August 2026 issue, Petroleum Science officially releases the "100 Grand Challenges in Petroleum Science," a landmark editorial five years in the making that is poised to exert a lasting influence on the development of petroleum science for decades to come.
Petroleum science today stands at a historic turning point. Exploration is pushing into ultra-deep (>8,000 meters) and deepwater frontiers, unconventional resources have become the dominant source of reserve and production growth, and carbon neutrality and artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping both the industrial landscape and the boundaries of the discipline. Classical accumulation theories and geophysical techniques fail in ultra-deep, ultra-high-pressure (>140 MPa), and ultra-high-temperature (>200 °C) settings; the mechanisms of multiphase flow in nanopores and the causes of rapid production decline in unconventional wells remain poorly understood. Furthermore, global climate governance is placing an imperative on petroleum science to integrate with emerging fields such as carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS), hydrogen energy, and geothermal energy.
In 2021, the editorial board of Petroleum Science launched an initiative to solicit the "100 Grand Challenges in Petroleum Science" from the global community. These include strategic reports from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the American Association of Petroleum Geologists (AAPG), the Society of Petroleum Engineers (SPE), among others. Through iterative expert workshops, broad external review, and multi-criteria screening—evaluating each candidate against scientific originality, practical urgency, transformative potential, interdisciplinary nature, temporal impact, and disciplinary balance—a team of researchers from China University of Petroleum compiled a final list of 100 fundamental scientific questions.
These challenges span six domains: Exploration and Development (30 challenges); Storage, Transportation, and Pipeline Networks (15); Refining and Petrochemicals (15); Petroleum Materials Science (10); CCUS–Geothermal–Hydrogen (15); and Energy Economics and Digital Transformation (15).
In-depth analysis of the challenges also revealed three archetypes. Mechanism-oriented problems (68 items) seek unified theories of multi-scale coupling, forming the "foundation" of the entire knowledge system by answering the fundamental question of why phenomena occur—for example, the multi-factor coupling theory of ultra-deep hydrocarbon accumulation or the unified theory of gas-liquid-solid interfacial transfer in multiphase catalysis. Technology-oriented problems (13 items) push engineering limits under extreme conditions, representing boundaries such as the limits of high-precision geophysical prediction for ultra-deep reservoirs or rheology control of drilling fluids under ultra-high temperature and pressure. System-level problems (19 items) address full-chain integration and energy transition, dealing with how to integrate and optimize under complex constraints—for example, the full-chain efficiency of CCUS, the evolution of global oil and gas supply chain resilience, and the value and pricing mechanism of oil and gas data.
From this list, the authors have distilled the ten most disruptive challenges:
A main insight of this work is that AI has evolved from an enabler into a core driver. More than 30% of the challenges rely on data, algorithms, or intelligent systems as key solution pathways. Specifically, AI is:
Notably, low-carbon transition is reflected in more than 30 challenges covering CCUS, geothermal energy, hydrogen energy, biomass conversion, and low-carbon refining. This transition is reconstructing the discipline's value standards—oil and gas assets must now account for carbon risk, stranding risk, and compliance cost; its time scales—CCUS and underground hydrogen storage extend prediction horizons to centuries or millennia; its spatial scales—from global carbon cycles to molecular CO₂-mineral interfacial reactions; and its disciplinary boundaries, forcing petroleum science to engage with geochemistry, thermodynamics, electrochemistry, and microbiology. Together with AI, the low-carbon transition forms the "twin engines" of the paradigm transformation in petroleum science.
This disciplinary roadmap is intended to guide research planning, investment, and talent cultivation for decades to come, while fostering interdisciplinary collaboration on a global scale. The authors emphasized that petroleum science is moving from "resource extraction science" toward "smart integrated energy science"—a comprehensive system encompassing subsurface space utilization (energy storage, waste disposal, carbon sequestration), multi-energy coupling (oil-gas-hydrogen-electricity-heat), carbon cycle management, and intelligent decision-making. This transition demands a systemic reconstruction of knowledge systems, educational models, and research organization.
The authors also noted that any list of scientific grand challenges is inherently open and dynamic; as theoretical breakthroughs and engineering practices advance, old challenges will be solved and new ones will emerge. At this moment, nonetheless, clearly defining what we do not know is an essential step toward the future.
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Contact the author: Li-Zhi Xiao, China University of Petroleum, Beijing, 102249, China, xiaolizhi@cup.edu.cn
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Petroleum Science
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One hundred grand challenges in petroleum science.
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.