Armed conflict accelerates cropland loss, and the effects can persist for years after conflict begins and vary substantially with conflict severity and social conditions, according to a new study published in Nature Food on September 24.
The study, led by Prof. LI Guangdong, Dr. QI Wei, and Prof. WANG Zhenbo from the Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, provides global evidence of the long-term effects of armed conflict on cropland and agricultural production.
Armed conflict is widely recognized as a major driver of food insecurity, but its long-term effects on cropland have been poorly understood at the global scale.
In this study, the researchers combined annual 30-m-resolution global cropland maps from 2000 to 2020 with more than 460,000 georeferenced armed conflict events across 155 countries.
They examined cropland changes in buffer regions extending five kilometers from conflict locations. They then used difference-in-differences and propensity score matching statistical methods to distinguish conflict-related changes from broader environmental and socioeconomic trends.
The study found that areas exposed to armed conflict covered only about 3% of the global land area yet accounted for more than 6% of the world’s cropland in 2020, indicating disproportionate exposure of agricultural land to conflict. While global cropland expanded overall between 2000 and 2020, cropland within conflict-affected areas declined slightly over the same period.
Further analysis showed that armed conflict was associated with an average 3.01% reduction in cropland area, equivalent to an annual loss of 14.46 hectares per conflict-exposed buffer region. These effects persisted for years after the onset of conflict.
A complementary spatial comparison showed that conflict-affected areas experienced 23.7% greater cropland loss than otherwise comparable non-conflict areas. The largest losses were concentrated in Western Africa, Eastern Africa, and Southeast Asia.
According to the researchers, the agricultural consequences of armed conflict vary substantially across regions and depend on conflict severity and social context.
The effects varied substantially with conflict intensity and duration. Areas experiencing very frequent conflict showed particularly severe cropland losses, with the highest-frequency group losing about one-third of its cropland. Protracted and high-severity conflicts were associated with much greater losses than intermittent or low-severity conflicts. By contrast, areas transitioning to post-conflict peace showed no clear evidence of continued cropland decline.
The researchers also found that conflict-related cropland losses varied with broader social and institutional conditions. Losses tended to be greater in countries with higher levels of refugee displacement, with a similar pattern observed for food insecurity. By contrast, higher scores for government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the rule of law corresponded to smaller losses. According to the researchers, these findings suggest that institutional capacity may help protect agricultural systems against the effects of conflict.
To assess the implications for food production, the research team converted the estimated cropland losses into potential crop production and dietary energy. After accounting for cropland gains and losses related to urban expansion, conflict-affected areas lost approximately 249,667 km 2 of cropland between 2000 and 2020.
The dietary energy associated with the crops that could have been produced on this land was estimated to be sufficient to meet the minimum annual requirements of approximately 255.54 million people.
The researchers emphasized that this figure represents forgone production potential, rather than actual food consumption or realized food insecurity, which also depend on trade, prices, distribution, and access.
Overall, the findings reveal the persistent and uneven effects of armed conflict on cropland and show how these effects vary with conflict characteristics and institutional conditions.
According to the researchers, the findings highlight the importance of monitoring conflict alongside cropland change and integrating short-term humanitarian responses with longer-term efforts to restore agricultural infrastructure, support farmers, and strengthen local institutions in conflict-affected regions.
Nature Food
Armed conflict accelerates cropland loss and food insecurity worldwide
24-Sep-2026