Africa in the path of COVID-19
Global experts call for international assistance as African nations battle COVID-19 and HIV. The authors argue that success in one country is limited if epidemics continue elsewhere.
Epidemics
Articles tagged with Epidemics
COVID-19 -- Impact of containment measures in Italy: 200,000 hospitalizations avoided in March
Italian researchers used a spatial model to analyze the impact of mobility restrictions on COVID-19 transmission. The study found that restrictive measures reduced hospitalizations by 45% and avoided 200,000 cases.
The Lancet: Modelling study estimates impact of relaxing control measures on possible second wave of COVID-19 in China
A modelling study suggests that relaxing control measures in regions outside Hubei province could lead to a second wave of COVID-19 infection, with cases potentially exceeding 1 and resulting in higher health and economic loss. The study advises policymakers to fine-tune control measures using real-time monitoring of transmissibility a...
COVID-19 in humanitarian settings and lessons learned from past epidemics
The study highlights the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on displaced populations, who are often stigmatized and blamed for disease spread. The authors share lessons learned from past epidemics to inform a more effective, inclusive COVID-19 response.
Periodic physical distancing for COVID-19 control: new modelling study
A new modelling paper from Ontario indicates that dynamic physical distancing measures can reduce COVID-19 transmission while providing periodic psychological and economic relief. The study shows that modulating response measures can prevent ICU overloads without overwhelming the healthcare system.
Researchers hope to improve future epidemic predictions
A new mathematical model, developed by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and Princeton University, uses information theory to improve epidemiological predictions. The model takes into account the evolutionary changes of both disease and information, allowing for more accurate predictions of epidemic spread.
China's control measures may have prevented 700,000 COVID-19 cases
Researchers analyzed China's control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic and found that they may have prevented over 700,000 infections outside of Wuhan. The study suggests that these measures successfully broke the chain of transmission by preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people.
Is the coronavirus outbreak of unnatural origins?
A modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) has been validated against previous outbreaks, outlining 11 criteria for determining if an outbreak is of unnatural origin. The tool helps identify unusual strain patterns, genetic manipulation, and peculiar geographic distribution, indicating potential artificial origin.
An acute respiratory infection runs into the most common noncommunicable epidemic -- COVID-19 and cardiovascular diseases
The article highlights the potential for COVID-19 to evolve into a chronic condition similar to influenza, with links to cardiovascular disease. Researchers warn of the risk of reemergence or emergence of other coronaviruses due to genetic recombination.
The Lancet Public Health: Modelling study estimates impact of physical distancing measures on progression of COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan
Researchers estimate that extending school and workplace closures in Wuhan until April would delay a second wave of cases until later in the year, relieving pressure on health services. Physical distancing measures are likely to be most effective if staggered return to work commences at the beginning of April.
New mathematical model can more effectively track epidemics
A new mathematical model developed by Princeton and Carnegie Mellon researchers improves epidemic tracking by accounting for disease mutations. The model provides critical insights into the effects of countermeasures, such as quarantines, on epidemic spread.
Travel restrictions are most useful in the early and late phase of an epidemic
A global consortium of researchers found that travel restrictions were most useful during the initial phase of the COVID-19 outbreak and again as local transmission became established. Provinces that acted early to contain imported cases fared best in preventing outbreaks.
UC identifies populations most at risk of opiate addiction
Researchers found that white men between 30 and 39 are most at risk of fatal overdoses, followed by black men ages 30 to 39. The study identified 12 clusters or hot zones across Ohio where opiate-related mortalities are highest.
The COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic has a natural origin, scientists say
Researchers analyzed public genome sequence data to determine the origins of SARS-CoV-2. They found no evidence that the virus was engineered or created in a laboratory, supporting natural evolution as its origin.
Something in the water
A Brazilian study found that consuming contaminated water with saxitoxin worsens Zika neurotoxicity, tripling cell mortality and causing microcephaly-like malformations. This research highlights the public health problem of low water quality in the Northeast region, exacerbating the effects of arbovirus diseases.
Wikipedia visits to disease outbreak pages show impact of news media on public attention
A new study found that news exposure closely linked with public attention to Zika in the US during the 2016 outbreak. The analysis showed synchronized patterns of Wikipedia page views with mentions of the virus in web and national TV news.
Individual response to COVID-19 'as important' as government action
Researchers stress that individual actions, such as self-isolation and social distancing, are key in controlling the pandemic. Governments can also take measures like banning large events and ensuring healthcare provision, but these must be balanced with economic considerations.
Scientists create model to predict multipathogen epidemics
Researchers from Rice University and the University of Michigan created a model to predict the severity of multipathogen epidemics based on within-host pathogen interactions. The study used zooplankton as a model organism and found that altering the order of infection can change the course of an epidemic.
Two complete genome sequence for coronavirus in Brazil were published
Researchers at the University of São Paulo, Adolfo Lutz Institute, and Oxford University have published the complete genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. The study reveals differences between the genomes of viruses isolated from two Brazilian patients, suggesting internal transmission is occurring in European countries.
To predict an epidemic, evolution can't be ignored
Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University developed a mathematical theory that takes into account evolutionary changes in pathogens or information. This theory was tested against thousands of computer-simulated epidemics and found to be more accurate than traditional models.
How door-to-door canvassing slowed an epidemic
A study found that volunteer-based outreach programs, such as door-to-door canvassing in Liberia, can effectively spread valuable information and change public practices during epidemics. The program improved health outcomes, increased public trust in government institutions, and led to more people following control measures.
Study: The opioid crisis may be far worse than we thought
New research reveals that opioid-related deaths may be 28% higher than reported due to incomplete death records. The study found that almost 72% of unclassified drug overdoses involved prescription opioids, heroin, or fentanyl.
Lessons learned from addressing myths about Zika and yellow fever outbreaks in Brazil
A Dartmouth-led study found that counteracting myths about Zika in Brazil actually reduced the accuracy of people's other beliefs about the disease. Information intended to correct misperceptions may have unintended effects on public health campaigns.
Risk of coronavirus importation in Africa
African countries with strong preparedness and detection capabilities are better equipped to handle a potential outbreak, while those with lower scores face significant risks of nondetection and local spread.
Why Zika virus caused most harmful brain damage to Brazilian newborns
A Zika virus strain in northeastern Brazil was particularly damaging to the developing brain, causing microcephaly in over 80% of cases. Researchers found that this strain led to neurodegeneration and smaller brains, but other factors such as environmental viruses may have also played a role.
WHO underestimates the spread of the coronavirus
Researchers at Umeå University reviewed 12 studies on coronavirus transmissibility, finding it to be significantly higher than WHO estimates. The reproduction number calculated from these studies ranges from 2.79 to 3.28, indicating a high risk of rapid spread.
APS tip sheet: Predicting epidemics' speed
Scientists have developed a new model to predict the speed of epidemics in networks, providing insights into the trajectory and rate of global spread. The analysis assesses each node's likelihood of infection by a certain time, enabling more accurate forecasting of epidemic dynamics.
The Lancet: Modelling study estimates spread of 2019 novel coronavirus
A new modelling study estimates that up to 75,800 individuals in Wuhan may have been infected with 2019-nCoV by January 25, 2020. The researchers also suggest that multiple major Chinese cities might have already imported dozens of cases of 2019-nCoV infection from Wuhan.
Parents aren't powerless when it comes to sleep-deprived teenagers
Researchers at the University of Rochester found that parents' consistent bedtime enforcement is associated with longer sleep duration and better mental health outcomes for teenagers. The study suggests that even without pre-bedtime conflict, parents' role in setting bedtimes yields positive results.
Researchers awarded $3.1 million to address vaping epidemic among youth
A nationwide nicotine vaping prevention program, CATCH My Breath, will be assessed for its effectiveness in delaying e-cigarette use among sixth to eighth grade students. The study aims to address the growing youth vaping epidemic and its long-term health hazards.
New metrics needed to evaluate and combat HIV epidemics in the US
A commentary published in the American Journal of Public Health argues that existing metrics are insufficient to track the public health response to HIV in the US. Newer metrics are needed to inform and evaluate efforts aimed at reducing new HIV infections by 75% and 90% over the next five and ten years, respectively.
Climate change could make RSV respiratory infection outbreaks less severe, more common
A study by Princeton University researchers found that climate change could lead to more frequent and earlier outbreaks of RSV respiratory infection in North America. The virus' spread is influenced by humidity and rainfall, which are expected to shift northward due to changing weather patterns.
Efforts to end the HIV epidemic must not ignore people already living with HIV
Researchers highlight the need to address comorbidities such as heart disease, kidney disease, and certain cancers associated with HIV. Effective treatment strategies and clinical trials are crucial to reducing the burden of these conditions on individuals and the healthcare system.
Regional trends in overdose deaths reveal multiple opioid epidemics, according to new study
The US is experiencing several simultaneous opioid epidemics, including prescription drug, heroin, synthetic opioids, and a syndemic in counties where the crisis first erupted. These distinct challenges require varied policy responses.
Chronic disease prevention could ease opioid crisis
A study from the University of Georgia found that over 90% of opioid-related hospitalizations are among patients with two or more chronic diseases, highlighting the association between chronic disease and opioid misuse. Researchers argue that prioritizing chronic disease prevention could alleviate the opioid epidemic.
In the war on emerging crop diseases, scientists develop new 'War Room' simulations
Scientists developed a new simulation tool to analyze the spread of disease in seed systems, identifying key villages for surveillance and management. This approach can be applied to other plant diseases, such as cassava mosaic disease in Southeast Asia.
Mapping disease outbreaks in urban settings using mobile phone data
A team of researchers from EPFL and MIT used mobile phone location data to study the spread of dengue fever in Singapore. Their findings showed that even low levels of mobility can cause an epidemic to spread, emphasizing the need for effective spatial distribution models.
Strengths of epidemic forecasting models
The study assesses the performance of dengue forecasting models across 8 seasons in Peru and Puerto Rico, revealing improved accuracy late in the season. The results provide a framework for refining future epidemic forecasting models, improving predictive skill over time.
Forecasting dengue: Challenges and a way forward
A team of scientists has developed new ways to forecast dengue infections by combining disease and climate data. The project aimed to predict maximum weekly cases, the week of peak cases, and total season cases, but models still struggle to accurately predict epidemics.
Testing HIV testers
A new study from the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing used a mystery shopper methodology to evaluate the quality of HIV/STI testing services for young men who have sex with men. The results showed variable performance across cities and testing sites, emphasizing the need to improve these services.
Snail habitats and schistosomiasis transmission
Researchers used drone and satellite imagery to map snail habitats in the Lower Senegal River Basin, finding that non-emergent vegetation was a stronger predictor of human infection than host snail counts. Removing this vegetation may benefit snail control efforts, reducing schistosomiasis transmission risk near human water-contact sites.
Global Health Security Index finds gaps in preparedness for epidemics and pandemics
The Global Health Security Index reveals severe weaknesses in countries' abilities to prevent, detect, and respond to significant disease outbreaks. The average overall score is slightly over 40 out of a possible 100, with the lowest-scoring category being having a sufficient health sector.
Ban filtered cigarettes to curb global plastic waste, say experts
Filters are ineffective and contribute to global plastic pollution, with the largest part being non-biodegradable cellulose acetate. Experts recommend banning filtered cigarettes to reduce waste and strengthen ties between environment and health communities.
Civil unrest and Ebola control
Conflict events repeatedly reversed a declining phase of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to researchers. Vaccination effectiveness was severely impacted by preceding unrest and subsequent conflict events, dropping from 52% to 4.8%.
UIC researchers tackle opioid use among kidney disease patients
The University of Illinois Chicago has received $2.8 million in NIH funding to investigate non-opioid pain management solutions for adults with kidney disease. The study aims to find effective treatments to alleviate chronic pain and improve quality of life for patients on maintenance dialysis.
HIV-positive New Yorkers are living longer but still dying from underlying infection, not just from old age
A review of autopsy reports reveals that early in the HIV epidemic, the average age of death was 36, increasing to 54 by 2010 due to development of antiviral therapies. However, people are still dying predominantly from underlying disease rather than just old age, with infections like pneumonia and hepatitis C contributing to deaths.
Discovery of 'hidden' outbreak hints that Zika virus can spread silently
A genomics study reveals an undetected Zika outbreak in Cuba in 2017, which peaked around the same time international health agencies thought the epidemic was nearing its end. The study uses genomic sequencing and travel patterns to reconstruct virus ancestry and outbreak dynamics, providing insights into how viruses can spread silently.
An unreported Zika outbreak in 2017 detected through travel surveillance and genetics
Researchers discovered a spike in Zika cases among travelers returning from Cuba in 2017, which was not reported locally. The study found that mosquito control measures may have initially mitigated transmission but need to be maintained.
Folded paper creates portable lab for field laboratory tests
A team of scientists developed a technique to coat low-cost paper with a liquid-infused polymer layer, creating a portable lab for field laboratory tests. The coated paper performed significantly better than uncoated paper in terms of fluid delivery and accuracy.
Researchers estimate societal costs of the opioid epidemic
Researchers estimate that opioid misuse reduced state tax revenue by over $11 billion and increased Medicaid costs associated with opioid use disorder to more than $3 billion. The study also found significant costs to the child welfare system, criminal justice system, and education sector.
In UK's third largest city intervention program helps reduce childhood obesity
A recent study published in Pediatric Obesity found that Leeds, England has bucked the global trend by reducing childhood obesity by 6.4%. The decline coincided with a strategy targeting families with preschool children in poor areas, utilizing the Health Exercise Nutrition for the Really Young (HENRY) intervention program.
Substantial increase in body weight since 1960s due to interplay between genes and environment
A substantial increase in BMI has been observed since the 1960s, with both genetically predisposed and non-predisposed individuals experiencing weight gain. The study's findings suggest that genetic predisposition interacts with an increasingly obesogenic environment to contribute to higher BMI in recent decades.
New epidemic forecast model could save precious resources
A new epidemic forecast model developed by Texas A&M researchers can accurately predict disease trajectories by taking into account human behavior. This allows for more effective resource allocation during outbreaks, reducing the risk of over-preparation and public mistrust.
Yellow fever virus responsible for current epidemic in Brazil originated in Amazon in 1980
Researchers have retraced the pathogen's route as it spread from Pará State in North Brazil. Yellow fever virus was detected in dead monkeys and mosquitoes, revealing a 40-year-old strain behind current epidemic.
Half of Ebola outbreaks go undetected, study finds
A new study estimates that half of all Ebola outbreaks have gone undetected since the virus was discovered in 1976. The research highlights the need for improved detection and rapid response to prevent future epidemics.
Opioid epidemic increases number of organs available for transplant
Research finds hearts from overdose death donors are as suitable as others, offering a solution to the growing organ shortage. The opioid epidemic has increased the number of organs available for transplant, including lungs and potentially other organs.
Vulnerability to Ebola and Lassa fever can now be properly assessed
Researchers developed a new methodology to calculate vulnerability based on adaptive capacity, which can help international bodies allocate resources. The study found that the most vulnerable states are not necessarily those with high confirmed cases, but rather those that struggle to cope with the disease.
University forms new center to battle Miami's HIV epidemic
The University of Miami has established a new center, CHARM, to study mental health disparities and curtail the local HIV/AIDS epidemic. The center aims to address behavioral factors that perpetuate the disease, particularly in poor and marginalized communities.
Chronic kidney disease epidemic may be result of high heat, toxins
A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that climate change may be contributing to a mysterious epidemic of chronic kidney disease among agricultural workers. The researchers found that heat exposure and heavy labor are common factors in the disease, which is also linked to toxins such as glyphosate and lead.
Nipah virus: Age and breathing difficulties increase the risk of disease spread
Research finds that adult cases with respiratory symptoms are more likely to transmit the virus, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions. Contacts exposed to respiratory secretions are also at higher risk, emphasizing the need for protective measures among spouses and caregivers.