Articles tagged with Epidemics
A modelling study suggests that relaxing control measures in regions outside Hubei province could lead to a second wave of COVID-19 infection, with cases potentially exceeding 1 and resulting in higher health and economic loss. The study advises policymakers to fine-tune control measures using real-time monitoring of transmissibility a...
A new mathematical model, developed by researchers at Carnegie Mellon University and Princeton University, uses information theory to improve epidemiological predictions. The model takes into account the evolutionary changes of both disease and information, allowing for more accurate predictions of epidemic spread.
Researchers analyzed China's control measures during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 epidemic and found that they may have prevented over 700,000 infections outside of Wuhan. The study suggests that these measures successfully broke the chain of transmission by preventing contact between infectious and susceptible people.
A modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) has been validated against previous outbreaks, outlining 11 criteria for determining if an outbreak is of unnatural origin. The tool helps identify unusual strain patterns, genetic manipulation, and peculiar geographic distribution, indicating potential artificial origin.
The article highlights the potential for COVID-19 to evolve into a chronic condition similar to influenza, with links to cardiovascular disease. Researchers warn of the risk of reemergence or emergence of other coronaviruses due to genetic recombination.
Researchers estimate that extending school and workplace closures in Wuhan until April would delay a second wave of cases until later in the year, relieving pressure on health services. Physical distancing measures are likely to be most effective if staggered return to work commences at the beginning of April.
A new mathematical model developed by Princeton and Carnegie Mellon researchers improves epidemic tracking by accounting for disease mutations. The model provides critical insights into the effects of countermeasures, such as quarantines, on epidemic spread.
A global consortium of researchers found that travel restrictions were most useful during the initial phase of the COVID-19 outbreak and again as local transmission became established. Provinces that acted early to contain imported cases fared best in preventing outbreaks.
Researchers found that white men between 30 and 39 are most at risk of fatal overdoses, followed by black men ages 30 to 39. The study identified 12 clusters or hot zones across Ohio where opiate-related mortalities are highest.
Researchers analyzed public genome sequence data to determine the origins of SARS-CoV-2. They found no evidence that the virus was engineered or created in a laboratory, supporting natural evolution as its origin.
A Brazilian study found that consuming contaminated water with saxitoxin worsens Zika neurotoxicity, tripling cell mortality and causing microcephaly-like malformations. This research highlights the public health problem of low water quality in the Northeast region, exacerbating the effects of arbovirus diseases.
A new study found that news exposure closely linked with public attention to Zika in the US during the 2016 outbreak. The analysis showed synchronized patterns of Wikipedia page views with mentions of the virus in web and national TV news.
Researchers stress that individual actions, such as self-isolation and social distancing, are key in controlling the pandemic. Governments can also take measures like banning large events and ensuring healthcare provision, but these must be balanced with economic considerations.
Researchers from Rice University and the University of Michigan created a model to predict the severity of multipathogen epidemics based on within-host pathogen interactions. The study used zooplankton as a model organism and found that altering the order of infection can change the course of an epidemic.
Researchers at the University of São Paulo, Adolfo Lutz Institute, and Oxford University have published the complete genome sequence of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil. The study reveals differences between the genomes of viruses isolated from two Brazilian patients, suggesting internal transmission is occurring in European countries.
Researchers at Carnegie Mellon University developed a mathematical theory that takes into account evolutionary changes in pathogens or information. This theory was tested against thousands of computer-simulated epidemics and found to be more accurate than traditional models.
New research reveals that opioid-related deaths may be 28% higher than reported due to incomplete death records. The study found that almost 72% of unclassified drug overdoses involved prescription opioids, heroin, or fentanyl.
A Dartmouth-led study found that counteracting myths about Zika in Brazil actually reduced the accuracy of people's other beliefs about the disease. Information intended to correct misperceptions may have unintended effects on public health campaigns.
A study found that volunteer-based outreach programs, such as door-to-door canvassing in Liberia, can effectively spread valuable information and change public practices during epidemics. The program improved health outcomes, increased public trust in government institutions, and led to more people following control measures.
African countries with strong preparedness and detection capabilities are better equipped to handle a potential outbreak, while those with lower scores face significant risks of nondetection and local spread.
A Zika virus strain in northeastern Brazil was particularly damaging to the developing brain, causing microcephaly in over 80% of cases. Researchers found that this strain led to neurodegeneration and smaller brains, but other factors such as environmental viruses may have also played a role.
Researchers at Umeå University reviewed 12 studies on coronavirus transmissibility, finding it to be significantly higher than WHO estimates. The reproduction number calculated from these studies ranges from 2.79 to 3.28, indicating a high risk of rapid spread.
Scientists have developed a new model to predict the speed of epidemics in networks, providing insights into the trajectory and rate of global spread. The analysis assesses each node's likelihood of infection by a certain time, enabling more accurate forecasting of epidemic dynamics.
A new modelling study estimates that up to 75,800 individuals in Wuhan may have been infected with 2019-nCoV by January 25, 2020. The researchers also suggest that multiple major Chinese cities might have already imported dozens of cases of 2019-nCoV infection from Wuhan.
Researchers at the University of Rochester found that parents' consistent bedtime enforcement is associated with longer sleep duration and better mental health outcomes for teenagers. The study suggests that even without pre-bedtime conflict, parents' role in setting bedtimes yields positive results.
A nationwide nicotine vaping prevention program, CATCH My Breath, will be assessed for its effectiveness in delaying e-cigarette use among sixth to eighth grade students. The study aims to address the growing youth vaping epidemic and its long-term health hazards.
A commentary published in the American Journal of Public Health argues that existing metrics are insufficient to track the public health response to HIV in the US. Newer metrics are needed to inform and evaluate efforts aimed at reducing new HIV infections by 75% and 90% over the next five and ten years, respectively.
A study by Princeton University researchers found that climate change could lead to more frequent and earlier outbreaks of RSV respiratory infection in North America. The virus' spread is influenced by humidity and rainfall, which are expected to shift northward due to changing weather patterns.
Researchers highlight the need to address comorbidities such as heart disease, kidney disease, and certain cancers associated with HIV. Effective treatment strategies and clinical trials are crucial to reducing the burden of these conditions on individuals and the healthcare system.
The US is experiencing several simultaneous opioid epidemics, including prescription drug, heroin, synthetic opioids, and a syndemic in counties where the crisis first erupted. These distinct challenges require varied policy responses.
A study from the University of Georgia found that over 90% of opioid-related hospitalizations are among patients with two or more chronic diseases, highlighting the association between chronic disease and opioid misuse. Researchers argue that prioritizing chronic disease prevention could alleviate the opioid epidemic.
Scientists developed a new simulation tool to analyze the spread of disease in seed systems, identifying key villages for surveillance and management. This approach can be applied to other plant diseases, such as cassava mosaic disease in Southeast Asia.
A team of researchers from EPFL and MIT used mobile phone location data to study the spread of dengue fever in Singapore. Their findings showed that even low levels of mobility can cause an epidemic to spread, emphasizing the need for effective spatial distribution models.
The study assesses the performance of dengue forecasting models across 8 seasons in Peru and Puerto Rico, revealing improved accuracy late in the season. The results provide a framework for refining future epidemic forecasting models, improving predictive skill over time.
A team of scientists has developed new ways to forecast dengue infections by combining disease and climate data. The project aimed to predict maximum weekly cases, the week of peak cases, and total season cases, but models still struggle to accurately predict epidemics.
A new study from the University of Pennsylvania School of Nursing used a mystery shopper methodology to evaluate the quality of HIV/STI testing services for young men who have sex with men. The results showed variable performance across cities and testing sites, emphasizing the need to improve these services.
Researchers used drone and satellite imagery to map snail habitats in the Lower Senegal River Basin, finding that non-emergent vegetation was a stronger predictor of human infection than host snail counts. Removing this vegetation may benefit snail control efforts, reducing schistosomiasis transmission risk near human water-contact sites.
The Global Health Security Index reveals severe weaknesses in countries' abilities to prevent, detect, and respond to significant disease outbreaks. The average overall score is slightly over 40 out of a possible 100, with the lowest-scoring category being having a sufficient health sector.
Filters are ineffective and contribute to global plastic pollution, with the largest part being non-biodegradable cellulose acetate. Experts recommend banning filtered cigarettes to reduce waste and strengthen ties between environment and health communities.
Conflict events repeatedly reversed a declining phase of the Ebola epidemic in the Democratic Republic of Congo, according to researchers. Vaccination effectiveness was severely impacted by preceding unrest and subsequent conflict events, dropping from 52% to 4.8%.
The University of Illinois Chicago has received $2.8 million in NIH funding to investigate non-opioid pain management solutions for adults with kidney disease. The study aims to find effective treatments to alleviate chronic pain and improve quality of life for patients on maintenance dialysis.
A review of autopsy reports reveals that early in the HIV epidemic, the average age of death was 36, increasing to 54 by 2010 due to development of antiviral therapies. However, people are still dying predominantly from underlying disease rather than just old age, with infections like pneumonia and hepatitis C contributing to deaths.
A genomics study reveals an undetected Zika outbreak in Cuba in 2017, which peaked around the same time international health agencies thought the epidemic was nearing its end. The study uses genomic sequencing and travel patterns to reconstruct virus ancestry and outbreak dynamics, providing insights into how viruses can spread silently.
Researchers discovered a spike in Zika cases among travelers returning from Cuba in 2017, which was not reported locally. The study found that mosquito control measures may have initially mitigated transmission but need to be maintained.
A team of scientists developed a technique to coat low-cost paper with a liquid-infused polymer layer, creating a portable lab for field laboratory tests. The coated paper performed significantly better than uncoated paper in terms of fluid delivery and accuracy.
Researchers estimate that opioid misuse reduced state tax revenue by over $11 billion and increased Medicaid costs associated with opioid use disorder to more than $3 billion. The study also found significant costs to the child welfare system, criminal justice system, and education sector.
A recent study published in Pediatric Obesity found that Leeds, England has bucked the global trend by reducing childhood obesity by 6.4%. The decline coincided with a strategy targeting families with preschool children in poor areas, utilizing the Health Exercise Nutrition for the Really Young (HENRY) intervention program.
A substantial increase in BMI has been observed since the 1960s, with both genetically predisposed and non-predisposed individuals experiencing weight gain. The study's findings suggest that genetic predisposition interacts with an increasingly obesogenic environment to contribute to higher BMI in recent decades.
A new epidemic forecast model developed by Texas A&M researchers can accurately predict disease trajectories by taking into account human behavior. This allows for more effective resource allocation during outbreaks, reducing the risk of over-preparation and public mistrust.
Researchers have retraced the pathogen's route as it spread from Pará State in North Brazil. Yellow fever virus was detected in dead monkeys and mosquitoes, revealing a 40-year-old strain behind current epidemic.
A new study estimates that half of all Ebola outbreaks have gone undetected since the virus was discovered in 1976. The research highlights the need for improved detection and rapid response to prevent future epidemics.
Research finds hearts from overdose death donors are as suitable as others, offering a solution to the growing organ shortage. The opioid epidemic has increased the number of organs available for transplant, including lungs and potentially other organs.
Researchers developed a new methodology to calculate vulnerability based on adaptive capacity, which can help international bodies allocate resources. The study found that the most vulnerable states are not necessarily those with high confirmed cases, but rather those that struggle to cope with the disease.
The University of Miami has established a new center, CHARM, to study mental health disparities and curtail the local HIV/AIDS epidemic. The center aims to address behavioral factors that perpetuate the disease, particularly in poor and marginalized communities.
Research finds that adult cases with respiratory symptoms are more likely to transmit the virus, highlighting the importance of targeted interventions. Contacts exposed to respiratory secretions are also at higher risk, emphasizing the need for protective measures among spouses and caregivers.
A new survey of over 200 internal medicine residents suggests that better training is needed to increase the prescribing of PrEP, a proven tool to prevent HIV transmission among high-risk individuals. The study's findings highlight the importance of improving residency training programs nationwide.
A study published in the New England Journal of Medicine suggests that climate change may be contributing to a mysterious epidemic of chronic kidney disease among agricultural workers. The researchers found that heat exposure and heavy labor are common factors in the disease, which is also linked to toxins such as glyphosate and lead.
The US is falling short in tackling HIV, with new infections remaining high at 40,000 annually. Effective strategies learned from Africa's response can help bring the epidemic under control.
A study by Penn State researchers estimates that the US government lost up to $37.8 billion in tax revenue between 2000 and 2016 due to opioid-related employment loss. The state of Pennsylvania was among the hardest hit, with approximately $638.2 million lost in income and sales tax.
A novel study creates a new metric to illustrate disadvantaged areas nationwide, highlighting the regions with the highest disparity between opioid-related deaths and access to treatment providers. The study found that nearly 32% of US counties lack any treatment programs, while over 19% have a low number of treatment programs per death.