Articles tagged with Epidemics
A retrospective analysis of 198,846 hospitalizations in France from March to November 2020 reveals major changes in the age and sex of hospitalized patients during the pandemic. The probability of ICU admission and death varied substantially over time, with a decrease followed by an increase in both cases.
Researchers estimate SARS-CoV-2 was circulating in China as early as mid-October 2019. The virus likely dies out naturally more than three-quarters of the time without causing an epidemic.
A modeling study suggests that digital contact tracing can significantly reduce COVID-19 outbreaks if a significant portion of the population adopts a contact tracing app. With 20% adoption, cases decrease by 35%, while higher adoption rates lead to further reductions.
Scientists developed a new model to assess the efficiency of group testing for COVID-19, accounting for dilution effects and detection limits. The model optimizes group size to minimize false negatives and determine contaminated individuals in a population.
A groundbreaking study aims to create predictive models to monitor and combat epidemics of yellow fever and other mosquito-borne diseases. By analyzing factors such as deforestation, rainfall variations and non-human primate populations, researchers hope to develop models that can predict outbreaks and protect the public.
The opioid and HIV epidemics in West Virginia are deeply interconnected, requiring a comprehensive approach to address both issues simultaneously. Stigma is a significant barrier to combating these epidemics, particularly in rural areas with limited resources.
The University of Houston Graduate College of Social Work research center has received $5 million in funding from Gilead Sciences, Inc. to continue its work combating the HIV/AIDS epidemic in the South. Led by Assistant Professor Samira Ali, the SUSTAIN Center focuses on improving frontline care and access for marginalized communities.
The US is failing to address HIV disparities, with racial and sexual minorities disproportionately affected. The epidemic has shifted from coastal areas to the South and rural regions, where women and minorities are more likely to be infected.
The HIV epidemic continues to disproportionately affect marginalized groups, particularly in the US South. Experts recommend allocating resources to areas and populations hardest hit by the epidemic to implement targeted interventions and promote HIV prevention and treatment adherence.
A study in Delhi reveals that social and environmental factors contribute to dengue fever spread. Lack of access to running water is the major risk factor, creating heat islands and ideal mosquito habitats.
This article revisits the pivotal role of dermatologists in the early HIV/AIDS epidemic, highlighting their contributions to diagnosis, treatment, and public awareness. The study's findings emphasize the importance of dermatologists in addressing skin-related issues during this critical period.
The Stanford model describes a complex interplay between individual incentives and government policies in response to epidemics. It predicts waves of infection surges, reactionary social change, and perpetual cycling if short-term thinking is not considered in epidemic response.
A West Virginia University-led study combines most drug overdose deaths with all suicides into an expanded self-injury category, exposing a mental health crisis across the United States. The research found that the national annual average percentage change in the self-injury rate was 4.3%, compared to 1.8% for suicide rates.
New data analysis from Imperial College London reveals that adults aged 20-49 are the main driver of COVID-19 transmission in the US. Despite school reopening, these age groups continue to sustain and spread the virus, highlighting the need for targeted interventions among this demographic.
Researchers analyzed 211 virus genomes and found nine local lineages circulating in Russia, not present elsewhere. The study suggests that the main channel of coronavirus 'import' was passenger traffic from European countries.
A recent study published in the Chinese Medical Journal found a high proportion of recent HIV infections among Chinese MSM college students, particularly those under 25 years old. The study suggests that regular HIV testing and TDR testing are crucial to prevent the spread of the disease. The findings highlight the need for early educa...
A genomic analysis of the first wave of COVID-19 in the UK revealed that over 1,000 viral sequences were introduced, with lineages originating from Spain, France, and Italy. The study suggests that earlier travel interventions could have reduced the epidemic's acceleration and intensity.
The Asian tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus has been shown to transmit the Zika virus and trigger large outbreaks in a simulated environment. However, experimental studies suggest that the mosquito's infection rate is low, making it unlikely to cause major Zika virus epidemics.
Researchers found that a homogeneous population distribution reduces total infected individuals, while diverse contact frequencies can significantly decrease the number of infected. The optimal degree-based procedure involves lifting strict quarantine after high-degree nodes have acquired immunity, minimizing net infected individuals.
Smallpox epidemics showed significant changes in frequency and seasonality over three centuries, with the introduction of vaccination and control measures leading to eradication. The analysis provides new insights into infectious disease ecology.
Researchers analyzed weekly smallpox mortality records from 1664 to 1930 to identify historical events influencing disease dynamics. They found that introduction of better control measures, especially vaccination, led to decreased mortality and eventual eradication.
Researchers developed a new method to predict epidemic development, which considers both best and worst-case scenarios. This approach provides a more realistic estimate of the epidemic's severity, helping policymakers make informed decisions.
Researchers at St Petersburg University have developed a new Case-Based Rate Reasoning (CBRR) model to predict epidemic dynamics. The model uses data from countries where the disease was recorded earlier to forecast its spread in Russia, and is being updated weekly for cities like St Petersburg and Moscow.
A new study found that the tension between awareness of Covid-19's severity and fatigue from pandemic precautions can lead to unusual epidemic patterns. The research team analyzed data and found evidence that individuals tend to increase their activity before the virus wanes, worsening the epidemic severity.
Researchers propose a new class of epidemiological models based on the use of fractional exponents to accurately predict disease spread and transmission. The study found that these models provide substantially different predictions compared to previous models, especially in early phases of an epidemic.
Researchers estimate 76% attack rate in Manaus, Brazil, and 29% in São Paulo, suggesting NPIs and growing immunity played a role in containing the epidemic. The study aims to understand the longevity of population immunity and potential need for booster vaccinations.
A modelling study published in The Lancet Public Health found that targeted travel restrictions are effective in controlling local COVID-19 transmission in countries with low numbers of cases or strong travel links to infected countries. Travel restrictions are unlikely to be effective when the virus is spreading rapidly within a country.
A study based on genomic analysis of 51 viral isolates extracted from mosquitoes and monkeys reveals three waves of the disease swept the state between 2016 and 2018. The use of MinION genetic sequencing technology allowed researchers to pinpoint the virus entry, spread speed, and geographical distribution of different lineages.
The study shows that a switching strategy between two losing strategies can lead to a winning outcome, alleviating suffering and preserving health and well-being. Three different switching rules are proposed, offering novel solutions to curb the spread of COVID-19 and future epidemics.
The study analyzed historical data to estimate mortality rates and transmission dynamics of plague epidemics. Climatic changes and human population density increased the growth rate of plague outbreaks, suggesting indirect flea-driven transmission.
Researchers at McMaster University analyzed historical documents and found that plague outbreaks in London sped up four times between the 14th and 17th centuries. The disease spread from doubling every 43 days to every 11 days, suggesting a shift from pneumonic transmission to bubonic plague.
A Brazilian research team developed a model to describe the spatial and temporal evolution of epidemic diseases. The SIR model predicts that contagion occurs discontinuously but follows a fractal pattern, which can help plan more effective social isolation programs with less socio-economic impact.
A re-analysis of data from Imperial College London's report suggests that school closures would lead to more overall covid-19 deaths, while general social distancing was effective in reducing cases. The study also found that mitigation strategies focusing on shielding elderly and vulnerable people could minimize deaths.
Researchers mapped genomic evolution of Vibrio cholerae bacteria in Argentina during the 1991-1998 cholera outbreak. The study distinguished between pandemic and non-pandemic lineages, influencing health policy and national alert surveillance system.
A new model forecasts Covid-19 epidemic dynamics and containment across different regions. Social distancing measures significantly delay the epidemic peak, while travel bans have a limited impact. The study's findings provide valuable insights for governments and industries to develop containment plans.
A study found that a significant drop in US overdose deaths in 2018 was attributed to a decrease in the availability of potent opioids from China, rather than domestic policy efforts. The decline was largely driven by a reduction in carfentanil seizures, an opioid 10,000 times more powerful than morphine.
A team of Italian scientists analyzed the effect of lifting lockdowns on COVID-19 transmission in Italy. They found that most regions remained close to a baseline scenario for one-and-a-half months after lockdown relaxation, highlighting the importance of controlled case isolation interventions to prevent rebounding epidemics.
A study from the University of Notre Dame found that over 100,000 people were infected with COVID-19 by early March, despite only 1,514 reported cases and 39 deaths. The researchers attribute this to limited testing and gaps in surveillance during the initial phase of the epidemic.
A recent study published in the Journal of Infectious Diseases found that stay-at-home orders significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. The study analyzed data from 45 states with stay-at-home orders and found an average doubling time increase of 12.27 days, indicating significant slowing of disease spread.
A new study published in PLOS Medicine found that government-implemented physical distancing measures significantly slowed the spread of COVID-19 in the US. The study analyzed data from the first five months of the epidemic and found that average daily case growth rates declined after implementation, and that the number of cases double...
The special collection highlights RWHAP's strategies for improving HIV care, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), data analysis, and collaborative efforts. HRSA's program serves over half a million people in the US annually, achieving high viral suppression rates.
A multidisciplinary team from UTMB discovered a Zika virus mutation that may have contributed to the 2015/2016 epidemic and microcephaly cases. The study found that this mutation enhances mother-to-baby transmission, neurological disease, and lethality in newborn mice.
Historical modelling analysis suggests that community-led interventions, including public hygiene initiatives and social distancing measures, played a crucial role in controlling the Typhus epidemic in the Warsaw Ghetto. The study highlights the importance of grassroots efforts in combating infectious diseases.
Research shows a correlation between epidemics in humans and local biodiversity loss, with the number of epidemics increasing as endangered species disappear. Livestock expansion worldwide exacerbates this risk, facilitating the transmission of pathogens.
Scientists charted SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Brazil, revealing that non-pharmaceutical interventions were insufficient to control the spread. The study found over 100 internationally-sourced virus introductions from Europe and estimates that more than 75% of Brazilian strains fell under three clades introduced during a specific period.
Scientists from CNRS and University of Nantes have developed a mathematical model to predict the risk of epidemic emergence based on seasonal factors. The 'winter is coming' effect suggests that pathogens introduced before unfavorable winter periods are less likely to cause large epidemics.
A new study published in PLOS Medicine suggests that combining self-imposed prevention measures like handwashing and mask-wearing with government-imposed social distancing can delay and reduce the peak of a COVID-19 epidemic. The model found that if self-imposed measures exceed 50% efficacy, large epidemics can be prevented.
A simple measuring tape could identify which Zika virus-exposed children develop neurological abnormalities. Head circumference growth trajectory is also key, with 10.5% going on to develop microcephaly in months after birth.
A scalable connectivity-aware solution is being developed by George Mason University researcher Sai Manoj Pudukotai Dinakarrao to confine the spread of COVID-19 and future epidemics. The solution aims to address epidemic model uncertainties and provide a cognitive approach for diverse demographics.
A new study found that regions with early interest in face masks had milder COVID-19 epidemics, with correlations seen in Asian countries such as Hong Kong and Taiwan. The use of face masks was linked to lower infection rates, suggesting its potential role in slowing the spread of the virus.
A new modeling study evaluates COVID-19 epidemics in lower-income countries and finds that even with reduced risk due to younger populations, limited healthcare capacity and inter-generational contact increase overall risk. Mitigation strategies are crucial to prevent health system overburdening.
Researchers surveyed commercial and residential citrus trees in Texas from 2007 to 2017, finding that the proportion of infected trees and psyllids increased exponentially over time. The study suggests that a flatter progression of citrus greening disease epidemics could be achieved through targeted protection and management strategies.
A new partnering agreement will finance a multi-centre Phase 2/3 adaptive clinical trial in Colombia, Panama, and Thailand to assess the safety and immunogenicity of the BBV87 vaccine candidate. The investment aims to accelerate the development of an effective Chikungunya vaccine for equitable access.
A Canadian study of global COVID-19 data found that temperature and latitude are not associated with the virus's spread, contrary to initial expectations. However, school closures, social distancing, and other public health measures have been shown to slow epidemic growth.
A new study published in Frontiers in Medicine found that early government intervention was crucial in limiting the spread of COVID-19 cases in Hunan province, China. The research team used a modified SIR model to compare infection trends between Hunan and Italy, finding that early measures reduced infection rates by up to 70%.
A commentary warns of a potential suicide epidemic in the US due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as gun sales skyrocket and social distancing disrupts support networks. The authors discuss ways to address this growing concern and mitigate its impact on public health.
Global experts call for international assistance as African nations battle COVID-19 and HIV. The authors argue that success in one country is limited if epidemics continue elsewhere.
Italian researchers used a spatial model to analyze the impact of mobility restrictions on COVID-19 transmission. The study found that restrictive measures reduced hospitalizations by 45% and avoided 200,000 cases.
The study highlights the disproportionate impact of COVID-19 on displaced populations, who are often stigmatized and blamed for disease spread. The authors share lessons learned from past epidemics to inform a more effective, inclusive COVID-19 response.
A new modelling paper from Ontario indicates that dynamic physical distancing measures can reduce COVID-19 transmission while providing periodic psychological and economic relief. The study shows that modulating response measures can prevent ICU overloads without overwhelming the healthcare system.