Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Researchers found that the Unified Model's microphysics scheme produces unrealistic raindrop size distributions, affecting storm structures. The study emphasizes the importance of selecting the right microphysics scheme for accurate weather prediction.
NASA analyzed satellite data to measure heavy US rainfall, finding record amounts in the Mid-Atlantic region. The extreme precipitation led to severe flooding along several rivers, including Washington D.C.'s Potomac River.
Scientists successfully simulated FY-2D infrared cloud images using a high-resolution WRF regional numerical weather prediction model product and forward radiation transfer model RTTOV. The results show improved accuracy, with correlation coefficients greater than 0.5 in the first 24 hours.
The GPM core satellite analyzed severe weather in the US, predicting a surge of spring tornadoes after a drought. Moisture-laden air from the Gulf of Mexico interacted with dry air, resulting in thunderstorms that spawned rotation and tornadoes.
A study by Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University researchers found that general aviation pilots had difficulty understanding various types of weather information, including METAR reports and radar displays. The findings suggest that improved pilot training and more effective weather display designs could help advance aviation safety.
Researchers used thousands of observations to find that sagebrush grows at cold sites after warm years but dies at hot sites. The study predicts that populations may decline in warmer areas but increase in colder areas.
University of Pittsburgh researchers are developing computer models to predict world events such as famine in South Sudan and refugee displacement. The models will analyze complex socioeconomic and geopolitical dynamics, incorporating both numerical and textual data.
Tropical Cyclone 16P has developed over the Arafura Sea, located between Australia's north coast and New Guinea. The storm is moving east at 4.6 mph and is expected to intensify as it enters the Gulf of Carpentaria.
Researchers proposed a local breeding of growing modes (LBGM) method to improve convection-allowing ensemble forecasting accuracy. The new method incorporates strong locality and horizontal inhomogeneity, resulting in greater ensemble spread and lower forecast RMSE compared to traditional methods.
The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer detected coldest cloud top temperatures in the tropical cyclone, indicating strong storms capable of heavy rain. Tropical Cyclone 11S is expected to rapidly intensify due to warm waters and low vertical wind shear.
Researchers at Columbia's Mailman School developed a method to forecast the spatial transmission of influenza in the US, improving accuracy by 35% compared to previous versions. The system accurately predicts local onset of flu six weeks ahead of time, informing decisions on vaccine distribution and public health measures.
Researchers at Colorado State University have developed an empirical model that accurately predicts atmospheric river activity in the western US three weeks in advance. This breakthrough could enhance long-term weather forecasting capabilities, allowing for earlier warnings of extreme precipitation, floods, and droughts.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Gita's northerly wind shear caused the storm to break apart, affecting New Zealand with gusty winds, ocean swells, and heavy rain. The storm brought severe weather watches and warnings, including state of emergency declarations in several regions.
Tropical Storm 10S has formed about 50 miles west of Broome, Australia, with maximum sustained winds near 40 mph. The storm is expected to strengthen rapidly and make landfall between Broome and Port Hedland on Sunday, Feb. 18.
Tropical Storm Sanba is approaching the Philippines, triggering warnings and warnings signal #2 in effect for Mindanao provinces. The storm's center was located 415 miles east of Zamboanga, moving west-northwest at 18.4mph.
NASA's Terra satellite captured images of Tropical Depression 02W on Feb. 9, showing a developing low level circulation center with minimal convection. The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guam and Yap State due to hazardous surf and rip currents.
The GOLD mission provides unprecedented measurements of Earth's upper atmosphere, tracking day-to-day changes in temperature and composition. By imaging ultraviolet light, GOLD will create a map of the hemisphere revealing how these forces impact our technological society.
New research from the University of Lincoln found that jet stream changes are significantly associated with UK regional rainfall and temperatures. The study suggests that using predictions of jet stream changes can produce more accurate seasonal weather forecasts on a smaller, regional scale.
A new study from Northern Illinois University predicts hailstorm likelihood with high accuracy, identifying a strong relationship between jet stream patterns and U.S. hail frequency.
New NOAA research predicts snowpack levels in the West 8 months in advance, providing crucial information for farmers and urban water managers. The accurate predictions can be made on a mountain range scale, helping to improve regional water forecasts and inform decisions on water supply, wildfire risk, ecology, and agriculture.
NASA's JPSS-1 satellite captured visible images of Tropical Cyclone Joyce as it moved south along the northwestern Australian coast on January 11. The cyclone had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots and was forecast to make landfall near Wallal Downs mid-day local time on January 12.
Tropical Storm Ava formed off northeastern Madagascar on Jan. 3, with NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite analyzing the storm in infrared light. The satellite provided data showing coldest cloud tops and strongest storms wrapped around the center of circulation.
Researchers at UMass Amherst, in collaboration with teams from Carnegie Mellon and Columbia universities, aim to predict regional flu outbreaks. By combining forecasting models and past performance data, they hope to provide better information for decision-makers.
Satellite imaging from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite reveals holiday travelers facing wet and snowy weather on both coasts. A large area of clouds associated with a frontal system is forecast to bring rain and snow across the US, with heavy rainfall and flooding predicted in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
Researchers analyzed atmospheric and oceanic interactions to identify a pattern linking spring sea surface temperatures to summer East Atlantic circulation over Western Europe. This connection may improve summer rainfall forecasts for the UK, Ireland, and northern France.
The Arctic's rapid warming and sea ice loss have significant impacts on Eurasian weather and climate, particularly in winter. The study finds that sea areas and western coasts of continents are relatively less affected, while continental regions, especially over Eurasia, experience the strongest influence.
Researchers at Western University have developed a method to forecast tornadoes with 90% accuracy within a 100-kilometre radius by adding high-altitude turbulence data. This breakthrough could buy up to 20 minutes of additional warning time.
Researchers developed a computer simulation tool to predict short-term flood hazards on coral reefs and assess longer-term impacts from climate change. A rare 'esker' was discovered on Mars, indicating recent water flows despite cold climates.
Tropical Storm Rina strengthened to tropical storm status on Nov. 6 with increased cloud coverage and deep convection near its center. The storm is forecasted to accelerate toward the north-northeast by Wednesday night.
A severe weather event on Nov. 5 was analyzed by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission, revealing the location of strongest storms and predicting heavy rain. At least nine tornadoes were reported in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, causing widespread power outages and injuries.
Typhoon Lan caused extreme flooding, landslides, and seven deaths when it hit Japan. NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission analyzed the storm and found rain totals of up to 800 mm (31.5 inches) in parts of Honshu.
The Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of Typhoon Lan with a well-formed, circular eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 100 knots and is forecast to make landfall south of Tokyo as a typhoon on Oct. 22.
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite provided detailed thermal and precipitation data on Hurricane Ophelia, showing extreme heavy rainfall rates of over 8.4 inches per hour. The hurricane was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone but expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Northern Ireland.
Global Change Center researchers developed a system to create real-time water forecasts for Falling Creek Reservoir in Roanoke, Va., using environmental data and local weather predictions. The system aims to predict times when water may require additional treatment due to environmental factors, improving drinking water quality.
Tropical Storm Ophelia developed on Oct. 9, strengthening into a tropical storm with strong thunderstorms and an eye-like feature. NASA forecasts gradual strengthening over the next 48 hours, with Ophelia expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured thermal images of cloud top temperatures from Post-tropical cyclone Nate, revealing coldest temperatures in storms over the Mid-Atlantic States. The storm brought moderate to heavy rainfall to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions.
A University of Utah study found that summary displays and ensemble displays can be misinterpreted by novice viewers, leading to inaccurate risk assessments. The researchers suggest that media reports should provide more context to help the public understand hurricane forecast visualization methods.
A University of Oklahoma research team led by Elinor Martin will apply statistical and artificial intelligence methods to predict heavy rainfall events. The team aims to improve forecasting and increase communication between researchers, forecasters, and stakeholders to enhance societal resilience to extended periods of heavy rainfall.
Hurricane Lee is weakening due to wind shear, with forecasters predicting gusty winds in Ireland and the UK over Sept. 30-Oct. 1. NASA satellite imagery shows the storm's disorganization, with wind shear pushing clouds to the south and southeast of the eye.
Seongjin Noh, a UTA civil engineer, has received a two-year grant to improve the quality of forecasts based on the National Water Model. He will use data assimilation to create a streamflow data assimilator that can predict floods and droughts more accurately.
NASA's Aqua satellite detects coldest cloud top temperatures in thunderstorms south of Hurricane Lee's center, indicating a strong storm with the capability to produce heavy rainfall. The hurricane is expected to continue weakening due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters.
A new IASI channel selection method has been developed to improve weather forecasting accuracy by reducing bias in humidity forecasts. The method used a one-dimensional variational analysis approach to select 200 new channels from the available 314 channels.
The Suomi NPP satellite analyzed Hurricane Maria in visible and infrared light, revealing intense rainfall bands with rates of over 6.57 inches per hour. The satellite's data helped forecasters predict storm track and strengthen, with Maria expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night.
The ForPAc project aims to improve drought and flood forecasting in Kenya through weather-climate forecasts and identify barriers to acting on that knowledge. The project will put in place effective early warning systems to save lives and reduce long-term progress setback due to severe droughts.
Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in eastern Vietnam, with maximum sustained winds near 80 knots. The storm was centered near 17.9 degrees north latitude and 106.0 degrees east longitude, about 174 miles northwest of Da Nang.
Typhoon Doksuri appeared well-rounded and organized on satellite imagery as it moved through the north central South China Sea toward Vietnam. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots (97.8 mph) and was expected to make landfall south of the city of Vinh on the coast of Vietnam on September 15.
Tropical Storm Norma has formed in the Eastern Pacific, with NASA's Terra satellite capturing its development. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours and could become a hurricane by late Friday.
Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph, posing an extremely dangerous threat to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing critical imagery and data to forecasters, indicating significant fluctuations in intensity over the next few days.
A new method, NLLE, generates ensemble initial perturbations with similar forecast skill to ETKF scheme. It offers a time-saving alternative to ETKF scheme in high-dimensional models.
NASA's Aqua satellite and International Space Station provided critical data on Tropical Storm Harvey, illustrating growing flood threats along the Texas coast. The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall accumulations of 7-13 inches, with isolated totals reaching 50 inches in some areas.
Harvey's heavy rainfall was measured by NASA's GPM satellite, showing intense storms dropping rain at a rate greater than 3.2 inches per hour. The storm's eye made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, causing catastrophic flooding. The National Hurricane Center predicts total rain accumulati...
A new weather forecasting model, Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), combines multiple global models to produce more accurate forecasts for the US. The multi-model approach improves temperature and precipitation outlooks for weeks 3-4, providing critical insights for decision makers.
Typhoon Noru made landfall in Wakayama, Japan, with sustained winds near 75 mph, forcing warnings throughout central Japan. The storm is forecast to pass west of Tokyo and re-emerge over the Pacific Ocean by August 9.
Typhoon Noru is expected to make landfall in Kyushu, Japan on August 6, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm's eye has grown to 37-nautical-mile-wide, with maximum sustained winds near 86 mph.
Tropical Storm Emily formed in the Gulf of Mexico on July 30, with NASA's AIRS instrument capturing high cloud top temperatures indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm made landfall in Florida on July 31, bringing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and forecasted to weaken into a tropical depression.
A new model developed by international scientists predicts multi-year US droughts and wildfire risks, enabling improved agricultural planning and water management. The model's success is attributed to the analysis of tropical climate variability, global climate change, and soil filtering effects.
Typhoon Noru is forecast to intensify as it tracks over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and a point source develops over the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that the storm's maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph) on July 28.
Tropical Storm Irwin's eastern half has a larger concentration of thunderstorms than the rest of the storm, according to NOAA's GOES-West satellite imagery. The National Hurricane Center forecasts little change in intensity before Irwin merges with Tropical Storm Hilary.
Tropical Depression 12W forms near Philippines as Typhoon Noru moves north; storm to make landfall in southeastern China on July 30. NASA's Aqua satellite captures visible image of powerful thunderstorms surrounding the center of circulation.
Tropical Storm Sonca is forecast to strengthen to 57 mph before making landfall in central Vietnam on July 25. The storm appeared elongated due to wind shear but is expected to make landfall just south of the city of Vinh.