Researchers find pathway to give advanced notice for hailstorms
A new study from Northern Illinois University predicts hailstorm likelihood with high accuracy, identifying a strong relationship between jet stream patterns and U.S. hail frequency.
Weather Forecasting
Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
New NOAA research holds promise of predicting snowpack even before the snow falls
New NOAA research predicts snowpack levels in the West 8 months in advance, providing crucial information for farmers and urban water managers. The accurate predictions can be made on a mountain range scale, helping to improve regional water forecasts and inform decisions on water supply, wildfire risk, ecology, and agriculture.
Tropical Cyclone Joyce soaking northwestern Australia coast
NASA's JPSS-1 satellite captured visible images of Tropical Cyclone Joyce as it moved south along the northwestern Australian coast on January 11. The cyclone had maximum sustained winds near 45 knots and was forecast to make landfall near Wallal Downs mid-day local time on January 12.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite sees Tropical Storm Ava near Madagascar
Tropical Storm Ava formed off northeastern Madagascar on Jan. 3, with NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite analyzing the storm in infrared light. The satellite provided data showing coldest cloud tops and strongest storms wrapped around the center of circulation.
Satellite keeps an eye on US holiday travel weather
Satellite imaging from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite reveals holiday travelers facing wet and snowy weather on both coasts. A large area of clouds associated with a frontal system is forecast to bring rain and snow across the US, with heavy rainfall and flooding predicted in the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys.
UMass Amherst and research partners aim to improve flu season forecasts
Researchers at UMass Amherst, in collaboration with teams from Carnegie Mellon and Columbia universities, aim to predict regional flu outbreaks. By combining forecasting models and past performance data, they hope to provide better information for decision-makers.
Predicting summer weather patterns in British Isles and France
Researchers analyzed atmospheric and oceanic interactions to identify a pattern linking spring sea surface temperatures to summer East Atlantic circulation over Western Europe. This connection may improve summer rainfall forecasts for the UK, Ireland, and northern France.
Arctic influences Eurasian weather and climate
The Arctic's rapid warming and sea ice loss have significant impacts on Eurasian weather and climate, particularly in winter. The study finds that sea areas and western coasts of continents are relatively less affected, while continental regions, especially over Eurasia, experience the strongest influence.
Breakthrough in tornado short-term forecasting could mean earlier, more accurate warnings
Researchers at Western University have developed a method to forecast tornadoes with 90% accuracy within a 100-kilometre radius by adding high-altitude turbulence data. This breakthrough could buy up to 20 minutes of additional warning time.
This week from AGU: Scientists counter threat of flooding on coral reef coasts
Researchers developed a computer simulation tool to predict short-term flood hazards on coral reefs and assess longer-term impacts from climate change. A rare 'esker' was discovered on Mars, indicating recent water flows despite cold climates.
NASA tracking Atlantic's Tropical storm Rina
Tropical Storm Rina strengthened to tropical storm status on Nov. 6 with increased cloud coverage and deep convection near its center. The storm is forecasted to accelerate toward the north-northeast by Wednesday night.
NASA's GPM radar spots tornado spawning thunderstorms in Ohio Valley
A severe weather event on Nov. 5 was analyzed by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission, revealing the location of strongest storms and predicting heavy rain. At least nine tornadoes were reported in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, causing widespread power outages and injuries.
NASA examines heavy rainfall generated by former Typhoon Lan
Typhoon Lan caused extreme flooding, landslides, and seven deaths when it hit Japan. NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission analyzed the storm and found rain totals of up to 800 mm (31.5 inches) in parts of Honshu.
NASA-NOAA satellite sees Typhoon Lan's 50 nautical-mile wide eye
The Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of Typhoon Lan with a well-formed, circular eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 100 knots and is forecast to make landfall south of Tokyo as a typhoon on Oct. 22.
NASA sees Hurricane Ophelia lashing Ireland
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite provided detailed thermal and precipitation data on Hurricane Ophelia, showing extreme heavy rainfall rates of over 8.4 inches per hour. The hurricane was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone but expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Northern Ireland.
Global Change Center researchers to forecast water quality with NSF support
Global Change Center researchers developed a system to create real-time water forecasts for Falling Creek Reservoir in Roanoke, Va., using environmental data and local weather predictions. The system aims to predict times when water may require additional treatment due to environmental factors, improving drinking water quality.
NASA eyes the development of Tropical Storm Ophelia
Tropical Storm Ophelia developed on Oct. 9, strengthening into a tropical storm with strong thunderstorms and an eye-like feature. NASA forecasts gradual strengthening over the next 48 hours, with Ophelia expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.
NASA sees post Tropical Cyclone Nate's wide rainfall reach
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured thermal images of cloud top temperatures from Post-tropical cyclone Nate, revealing coldest temperatures in storms over the Mid-Atlantic States. The storm brought moderate to heavy rainfall to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions.
Interpreting hurricane forecast displays can be difficult for general public
A University of Utah study found that summary displays and ensemble displays can be misinterpreted by novice viewers, leading to inaccurate risk assessments. The researchers suggest that media reports should provide more context to help the public understand hurricane forecast visualization methods.
OU researchers receive $1.8 million NSF grant to predict heavy rainfall events
A University of Oklahoma research team led by Elinor Martin will apply statistical and artificial intelligence methods to predict heavy rainfall events. The team aims to improve forecasting and increase communication between researchers, forecasters, and stakeholders to enhance societal resilience to extended periods of heavy rainfall.
NASA sees a weaker Hurricane Lee headed to the UK
Hurricane Lee is weakening due to wind shear, with forecasters predicting gusty winds in Ireland and the UK over Sept. 30-Oct. 1. NASA satellite imagery shows the storm's disorganization, with wind shear pushing clouds to the south and southeast of the eye.
UTA civil engineer earns grant to improve quality of streamflow modeling
Seongjin Noh, a UTA civil engineer, has received a two-year grant to improve the quality of forecasts based on the National Water Model. He will use data assimilation to create a streamflow data assimilator that can predict floods and droughts more accurately.
NASA finds Hurricane Lee's strength shift
NASA's Aqua satellite detects coldest cloud top temperatures in thunderstorms south of Hurricane Lee's center, indicating a strong storm with the capability to produce heavy rainfall. The hurricane is expected to continue weakening due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters.
Improving weather forecasting with a new IASI channel selection method
A new IASI channel selection method has been developed to improve weather forecasting accuracy by reducing bias in humidity forecasts. The method used a one-dimensional variational analysis approach to select 200 new channels from the available 314 channels.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite gets two looks at Hurricane Maria
The Suomi NPP satellite analyzed Hurricane Maria in visible and infrared light, revealing intense rainfall bands with rates of over 6.57 inches per hour. The satellite's data helped forecasters predict storm track and strengthen, with Maria expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night.
Major new project launched to improve drought and flood forecasting in Kenya
The ForPAc project aims to improve drought and flood forecasting in Kenya through weather-climate forecasts and identify barriers to acting on that knowledge. The project will put in place effective early warning systems to save lives and reduce long-term progress setback due to severe droughts.
NASA sees Typhoon Doksuri making landfall in Vietnam
Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in eastern Vietnam, with maximum sustained winds near 80 knots. The storm was centered near 17.9 degrees north latitude and 106.0 degrees east longitude, about 174 miles northwest of Da Nang.
NASA sees Typhoon Doksuri in the South China Sea
Typhoon Doksuri appeared well-rounded and organized on satellite imagery as it moved through the north central South China Sea toward Vietnam. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots (97.8 mph) and was expected to make landfall south of the city of Vinh on the coast of Vietnam on September 15.
NASA sees Eastern Pacific stir Up Tropical Storm Norma
Tropical Storm Norma has formed in the Eastern Pacific, with NASA's Terra satellite capturing its development. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours and could become a hurricane by late Friday.
NASA sees Irma strengthen to a category 5 hurricane
Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph, posing an extremely dangerous threat to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing critical imagery and data to forecasters, indicating significant fluctuations in intensity over the next few days.
A new method used to generate ensemble initial perturbations
A new method, NLLE, generates ensemble initial perturbations with similar forecast skill to ETKF scheme. It offers a time-saving alternative to ETKF scheme in high-dimensional models.
NASA watching Harvey from satellites and the International Space Station
NASA's Aqua satellite and International Space Station provided critical data on Tropical Storm Harvey, illustrating growing flood threats along the Texas coast. The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall accumulations of 7-13 inches, with isolated totals reaching 50 inches in some areas.
NASA analyzes Hurricane Harvey's rainfall, sees landfall
Harvey's heavy rainfall was measured by NASA's GPM satellite, showing intense storms dropping rain at a rate greater than 3.2 inches per hour. The storm's eye made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, causing catastrophic flooding. The National Hurricane Center predicts total rain accumulati...
New weather forecasting model could help advance NOAA's 3-4 week outlooks
A new weather forecasting model, Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), combines multiple global models to produce more accurate forecasts for the US. The multi-model approach improves temperature and precipitation outlooks for weeks 3-4, providing critical insights for decision makers.
NASA sees Typhoon Noru over southern Japan
Typhoon Noru made landfall in Wakayama, Japan, with sustained winds near 75 mph, forcing warnings throughout central Japan. The storm is forecast to pass west of Tokyo and re-emerge over the Pacific Ocean by August 9.
NASA sees wide-eyed Typhoon Noru headed for landfall in Kyushu, Japan
Typhoon Noru is expected to make landfall in Kyushu, Japan on August 6, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm's eye has grown to 37-nautical-mile-wide, with maximum sustained winds near 86 mph.
Successful prediction of multi-year US droughts and wildfire risk
A new model developed by international scientists predicts multi-year US droughts and wildfire risks, enabling improved agricultural planning and water management. The model's success is attributed to the analysis of tropical climate variability, global climate change, and soil filtering effects.
NASA sees Tropical Storm Emily before and after landfall
Tropical Storm Emily formed in the Gulf of Mexico on July 30, with NASA's AIRS instrument capturing high cloud top temperatures indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm made landfall in Florida on July 31, bringing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and forecasted to weaken into a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Irwin's eastern side builds on satellite imagery
Tropical Storm Irwin's eastern half has a larger concentration of thunderstorms than the rest of the storm, according to NOAA's GOES-West satellite imagery. The National Hurricane Center forecasts little change in intensity before Irwin merges with Tropical Storm Hilary.
NASA's Aqua satellite finds a Tropical Cyclone sandwich
Tropical Depression 12W forms near Philippines as Typhoon Noru moves north; storm to make landfall in southeastern China on July 30. NASA's Aqua satellite captures visible image of powerful thunderstorms surrounding the center of circulation.
NASA's Aqua satellite tracking Typhoon Noru in northwestern Pacific
Typhoon Noru is forecast to intensify as it tracks over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and a point source develops over the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that the storm's maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph) on July 28.
NASA watches as Vietnam braces for Tropical Storm Sonca
Tropical Storm Sonca is forecast to strengthen to 57 mph before making landfall in central Vietnam on July 25. The storm appeared elongated due to wind shear but is expected to make landfall just south of the city of Vinh.
GOES Satellite sees Tropical Depression 09E form
Tropical Depression 09E formed off Mexico's southern coast, with NOAA's GOES-East satellite capturing its image on July 21. The depression is moving westward at 14 mph, with a high probability of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next two days.
Warm winter events in Arctic becoming more frequent, lasting longer
A new study by NASA scientists found that Arctic winter warming events are occurring more frequently and lastingly, with an average increase of nearly two days in duration. The study also shows a significant impact on the Arctic climate system, with warmer temperatures hindering ice growth and expansion.
NASA sees Central Atlantic Ocean's forming Tropical Depression 4
Tropical Depression 4 formed over the central Atlantic Ocean on July 6, with heavy showers and rain rates exceeding 44mm/hour. The depression is moving west-northwest at 16mph and is expected to remain a depression for several days before potentially reaching tropical storm status.
Predicting eruptions using satellites and math
Researchers are developing a method to forecast volcanic eruptions by analyzing satellite measurements and ground deformation data. By applying data assimilation techniques, they aim to improve predictions of magma movement and pressure buildup beneath volcanoes.
NASA adds up Tropical Storm Cindy's rainfall
Tropical Storm Cindy brought significant rainfall to the Gulf Coast region, with estimated totals ranging from 6.80 inches in Prattville, Alabama, to 12.30 inches in Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The majority of heavy rainfall was located east of Cindy's center, affecting states along the Gulf Coast and surrounding areas.
New IST research leverages big data to predict severe weather
Researchers from Penn State's IST have developed a method to identify bow echoes in radar images, a phenomenon associated with fierce winds. The algorithm can automatically detect bow echoes as they begin to form, providing instant notifications for severe weather alerts.
Potential Atlantic Ocean Tropical Cyclone 2 examined by NASA
A developing tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic Ocean is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next five days. NASA provided critical data and cloud height information to forecasters, revealing heavy rain showers and towering thunderstorms with heights above 9.3 miles.
Forecasting strong precipitation -- the potential of potential deformation
Scientists at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics have developed a new parameter called potential deformation (PD) to diagnose heavy precipitation. PD is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation, with a correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.7.
Data from satellite imagery useful for malaria early warning systems
Researchers developed a model that uses satellite data to predict malaria outbreaks with one-month lead time, allowing for targeted resource allocation and public health responses.
Weather patterns' influence on frost timing
Researchers from the University of Utah and USGS analyzed 93 years of weather data to find that atmospheric circulation patterns account for 25-48% of variation in frost timing, while global warming contributes 3-5 days to the lengthening of the frost-free season.
NASA measures rainfall rates in Tropical Cyclone Donna
Tropical Cyclone Donna is generating heavy rainfall with precipitation rates reaching over 53 mm per hour. The storm's intense rain bands are expected to batter Vanuatu's northern islands with maximum sustained winds of up to 127 mph.
Researchers develop radar simulator to characterize scattering of debris in tornadoes
The new radar simulator helps explain how debris scatters and falls through the atmosphere, improving tornado detection and damage estimates. Characterizing debris fields is vital due to flying debris causing most tornado fatalities.
Diabetes app forecasts blood sugar levels
Researchers developed a personalized algorithm that predicts the impact of specific foods on an individual's blood sugar levels. The algorithm has been integrated into an app, Glucoracle, allowing individuals with type 2 diabetes to make better nutritional choices.
NASA and NOAA satellites watch Arlene, first Atlantic Tropical Storm of the season
Tropical Storm Arlene formed on April 20, 40 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was tracked by NASA-NOAA satellites, showing a large area of thunderstorms swirling far from land areas. As it moves west, Arlene is expected to lose its tropical characteristics and dissipate by April 21.
The Forecaster's Dilemma: Evaluating forecasts of extreme events
The study evaluates forecast accuracy for extreme events, revealing the problem of limited data subsets and biased inferential procedures. By adopting probability distributions, forecasts can be evaluated using standardized tools to address this critical issue.
Mild, wet summer in the midwest predicted by Mizzou weather expert
A University of Missouri meteorology expert predicts a relatively wet and mild summer for the Midwest, providing good growing conditions for crops. The forecast is attributed to projected El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically bring mild and wet summers to the region.
Unraveling the mystery of snowflakes, from the Alps to Antarctica
Researchers at EPFL's Environmental Remote Sensing Laboratory developed an algorithm to classify six different classes of snowflakes, improving precipitation measurement and forecast accuracy. The study used high-resolution images of snowflakes taken from three angles and analyzed their shape, geometry, and electromagnetic properties.
Waves on sun give NASA new insight into space weather forecasting
Researchers discovered Rossby waves on the sun, similar to jet streams on Earth, which may allow for long-term space weather forecasting. The waves drive solar flares and coronal mass ejections, enabling predictions of flare occurrences.