Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Researchers at Western University have developed a method to forecast tornadoes with 90% accuracy within a 100-kilometre radius by adding high-altitude turbulence data. This breakthrough could buy up to 20 minutes of additional warning time.
Researchers developed a computer simulation tool to predict short-term flood hazards on coral reefs and assess longer-term impacts from climate change. A rare 'esker' was discovered on Mars, indicating recent water flows despite cold climates.
Tropical Storm Rina strengthened to tropical storm status on Nov. 6 with increased cloud coverage and deep convection near its center. The storm is forecasted to accelerate toward the north-northeast by Wednesday night.
A severe weather event on Nov. 5 was analyzed by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission, revealing the location of strongest storms and predicting heavy rain. At least nine tornadoes were reported in Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio, causing widespread power outages and injuries.
Typhoon Lan caused extreme flooding, landslides, and seven deaths when it hit Japan. NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission analyzed the storm and found rain totals of up to 800 mm (31.5 inches) in parts of Honshu.
The Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of Typhoon Lan with a well-formed, circular eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 100 knots and is forecast to make landfall south of Tokyo as a typhoon on Oct. 22.
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite provided detailed thermal and precipitation data on Hurricane Ophelia, showing extreme heavy rainfall rates of over 8.4 inches per hour. The hurricane was downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone but expected to bring hurricane-force winds to Northern Ireland.
Global Change Center researchers developed a system to create real-time water forecasts for Falling Creek Reservoir in Roanoke, Va., using environmental data and local weather predictions. The system aims to predict times when water may require additional treatment due to environmental factors, improving drinking water quality.
Tropical Storm Ophelia developed on Oct. 9, strengthening into a tropical storm with strong thunderstorms and an eye-like feature. NASA forecasts gradual strengthening over the next 48 hours, with Ophelia expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured thermal images of cloud top temperatures from Post-tropical cyclone Nate, revealing coldest temperatures in storms over the Mid-Atlantic States. The storm brought moderate to heavy rainfall to the central Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic regions.
A University of Utah study found that summary displays and ensemble displays can be misinterpreted by novice viewers, leading to inaccurate risk assessments. The researchers suggest that media reports should provide more context to help the public understand hurricane forecast visualization methods.
A University of Oklahoma research team led by Elinor Martin will apply statistical and artificial intelligence methods to predict heavy rainfall events. The team aims to improve forecasting and increase communication between researchers, forecasters, and stakeholders to enhance societal resilience to extended periods of heavy rainfall.
Seongjin Noh, a UTA civil engineer, has received a two-year grant to improve the quality of forecasts based on the National Water Model. He will use data assimilation to create a streamflow data assimilator that can predict floods and droughts more accurately.
Hurricane Lee is weakening due to wind shear, with forecasters predicting gusty winds in Ireland and the UK over Sept. 30-Oct. 1. NASA satellite imagery shows the storm's disorganization, with wind shear pushing clouds to the south and southeast of the eye.
NASA's Aqua satellite detects coldest cloud top temperatures in thunderstorms south of Hurricane Lee's center, indicating a strong storm with the capability to produce heavy rainfall. The hurricane is expected to continue weakening due to increasing wind shear and cooler waters.
A new IASI channel selection method has been developed to improve weather forecasting accuracy by reducing bias in humidity forecasts. The method used a one-dimensional variational analysis approach to select 200 new channels from the available 314 channels.
The ForPAc project aims to improve drought and flood forecasting in Kenya through weather-climate forecasts and identify barriers to acting on that knowledge. The project will put in place effective early warning systems to save lives and reduce long-term progress setback due to severe droughts.
The Suomi NPP satellite analyzed Hurricane Maria in visible and infrared light, revealing intense rainfall bands with rates of over 6.57 inches per hour. The satellite's data helped forecasters predict storm track and strengthen, with Maria expected to become a tropical storm by Tuesday night.
Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in eastern Vietnam, with maximum sustained winds near 80 knots. The storm was centered near 17.9 degrees north latitude and 106.0 degrees east longitude, about 174 miles northwest of Da Nang.
Tropical Storm Norma has formed in the Eastern Pacific, with NASA's Terra satellite capturing its development. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next 48 hours and could become a hurricane by late Friday.
Typhoon Doksuri appeared well-rounded and organized on satellite imagery as it moved through the north central South China Sea toward Vietnam. The storm had maximum sustained winds near 85 knots (97.8 mph) and was expected to make landfall south of the city of Vinh on the coast of Vietnam on September 15.
Hurricane Irma has strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 175 mph, posing an extremely dangerous threat to the northern Leeward Islands. NASA and NOAA satellites have been providing critical imagery and data to forecasters, indicating significant fluctuations in intensity over the next few days.
A new method, NLLE, generates ensemble initial perturbations with similar forecast skill to ETKF scheme. It offers a time-saving alternative to ETKF scheme in high-dimensional models.
NASA's Aqua satellite and International Space Station provided critical data on Tropical Storm Harvey, illustrating growing flood threats along the Texas coast. The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall accumulations of 7-13 inches, with isolated totals reaching 50 inches in some areas.
Harvey's heavy rainfall was measured by NASA's GPM satellite, showing intense storms dropping rain at a rate greater than 3.2 inches per hour. The storm's eye made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane between Port Aransas and Port O'Connor, Texas, causing catastrophic flooding. The National Hurricane Center predicts total rain accumulati...
A new weather forecasting model, Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), combines multiple global models to produce more accurate forecasts for the US. The multi-model approach improves temperature and precipitation outlooks for weeks 3-4, providing critical insights for decision makers.
Typhoon Noru made landfall in Wakayama, Japan, with sustained winds near 75 mph, forcing warnings throughout central Japan. The storm is forecast to pass west of Tokyo and re-emerge over the Pacific Ocean by August 9.
Typhoon Noru is expected to make landfall in Kyushu, Japan on August 6, bringing strong winds and heavy rainfall. The storm's eye has grown to 37-nautical-mile-wide, with maximum sustained winds near 86 mph.
A new model developed by international scientists predicts multi-year US droughts and wildfire risks, enabling improved agricultural planning and water management. The model's success is attributed to the analysis of tropical climate variability, global climate change, and soil filtering effects.
Tropical Storm Emily formed in the Gulf of Mexico on July 30, with NASA's AIRS instrument capturing high cloud top temperatures indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm made landfall in Florida on July 31, bringing maximum sustained winds of 45 mph and forecasted to weaken into a tropical depression.
Tropical Storm Irwin's eastern half has a larger concentration of thunderstorms than the rest of the storm, according to NOAA's GOES-West satellite imagery. The National Hurricane Center forecasts little change in intensity before Irwin merges with Tropical Storm Hilary.
Tropical Depression 12W forms near Philippines as Typhoon Noru moves north; storm to make landfall in southeastern China on July 30. NASA's Aqua satellite captures visible image of powerful thunderstorms surrounding the center of circulation.
Typhoon Noru is forecast to intensify as it tracks over increasingly warm sea surface temperatures and a point source develops over the system. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center noted that the storm's maximum sustained winds were near 65 knots (75 mph/120 kph) on July 28.
Tropical Storm Sonca is forecast to strengthen to 57 mph before making landfall in central Vietnam on July 25. The storm appeared elongated due to wind shear but is expected to make landfall just south of the city of Vinh.
Tropical Depression 09E formed off Mexico's southern coast, with NOAA's GOES-East satellite capturing its image on July 21. The depression is moving westward at 14 mph, with a high probability of strengthening into a tropical storm within the next two days.
A new study by NASA scientists found that Arctic winter warming events are occurring more frequently and lastingly, with an average increase of nearly two days in duration. The study also shows a significant impact on the Arctic climate system, with warmer temperatures hindering ice growth and expansion.
Tropical Depression 4 formed over the central Atlantic Ocean on July 6, with heavy showers and rain rates exceeding 44mm/hour. The depression is moving west-northwest at 16mph and is expected to remain a depression for several days before potentially reaching tropical storm status.
Researchers are developing a method to forecast volcanic eruptions by analyzing satellite measurements and ground deformation data. By applying data assimilation techniques, they aim to improve predictions of magma movement and pressure buildup beneath volcanoes.
Tropical Storm Cindy brought significant rainfall to the Gulf Coast region, with estimated totals ranging from 6.80 inches in Prattville, Alabama, to 12.30 inches in Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The majority of heavy rainfall was located east of Cindy's center, affecting states along the Gulf Coast and surrounding areas.
Researchers from Penn State's IST have developed a method to identify bow echoes in radar images, a phenomenon associated with fierce winds. The algorithm can automatically detect bow echoes as they begin to form, providing instant notifications for severe weather alerts.
A developing tropical cyclone in the western Atlantic Ocean is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next five days. NASA provided critical data and cloud height information to forecasters, revealing heavy rain showers and towering thunderstorms with heights above 9.3 miles.
Scientists at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics have developed a new parameter called potential deformation (PD) to diagnose heavy precipitation. PD is closely related to the occurrence and distribution of strong precipitation, with a correlation coefficient reaching up to 0.7.
Researchers developed a model that uses satellite data to predict malaria outbreaks with one-month lead time, allowing for targeted resource allocation and public health responses.
Researchers from the University of Utah and USGS analyzed 93 years of weather data to find that atmospheric circulation patterns account for 25-48% of variation in frost timing, while global warming contributes 3-5 days to the lengthening of the frost-free season.
Tropical Cyclone Donna is generating heavy rainfall with precipitation rates reaching over 53 mm per hour. The storm's intense rain bands are expected to batter Vanuatu's northern islands with maximum sustained winds of up to 127 mph.
The new radar simulator helps explain how debris scatters and falls through the atmosphere, improving tornado detection and damage estimates. Characterizing debris fields is vital due to flying debris causing most tornado fatalities.
Researchers developed a personalized algorithm that predicts the impact of specific foods on an individual's blood sugar levels. The algorithm has been integrated into an app, Glucoracle, allowing individuals with type 2 diabetes to make better nutritional choices.
Tropical Storm Arlene formed on April 20, 40 days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was tracked by NASA-NOAA satellites, showing a large area of thunderstorms swirling far from land areas. As it moves west, Arlene is expected to lose its tropical characteristics and dissipate by April 21.
A University of Missouri meteorology expert predicts a relatively wet and mild summer for the Midwest, providing good growing conditions for crops. The forecast is attributed to projected El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which typically bring mild and wet summers to the region.
The study evaluates forecast accuracy for extreme events, revealing the problem of limited data subsets and biased inferential procedures. By adopting probability distributions, forecasts can be evaluated using standardized tools to address this critical issue.
Researchers at EPFL's Environmental Remote Sensing Laboratory developed an algorithm to classify six different classes of snowflakes, improving precipitation measurement and forecast accuracy. The study used high-resolution images of snowflakes taken from three angles and analyzed their shape, geometry, and electromagnetic properties.
Researchers discovered Rossby waves on the sun, similar to jet streams on Earth, which may allow for long-term space weather forecasting. The waves drive solar flares and coronal mass ejections, enabling predictions of flare occurrences.
A new EU report highlights knowledge gaps in reducing risks linked to space weather and recommends policy, industry, and science collaborations to close these gaps. The report also emphasizes the need for early warning systems and better communication between science and industry.
Physicists developed a simple mathematical model to predict turbulent flows and verified it physically in a lab. They identified exact coherent structures (ECSs) that provide entry points for computing predictions about future turbulence behavior.
Researchers used enhanced Arctic weather data to predict 2015's extreme cold waves, improving forecast accuracy by 10-30%. The additional data helped assess initial atmospheric conditions and dynamics of the polar vortex, enabling more precise forecasts.
Researchers found that rogue waves occur roughly twice daily at any given location in a storm and are not as rare as previously believed. The study provides critical information for designing and operating ships and platforms safely in extreme conditions.
Tropical Cyclone Enawo made landfall in northeastern Madagascar as a Category 4 hurricane, bringing severe damage and power outages to the region. The storm's maximum sustained winds reached 144 mph, with warnings posted throughout northern Madagascar.
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument on NOAA's GOES-16 satellite is transmitting data for the first time, giving forecasters richer information about lightning and improving severe weather alerts. The mapper detects in-cloud lightning, which can occur up to 10 minutes before potentially deadly cloud-to-ground strikes.
Tropical Storm Enawo formed in the Southern Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar. The NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of the storm, showing a concentration of thunderstorms around its center. Enawo is forecast to track along Madagascar's east coast and strengthen into a hurricane in 3-4 days.
Researchers developed a forecasting model to predict WNV outbreaks, generating accurate forecasts for mosquito infection rates and human cases up to nine weeks prior. This method could give public health officials more time to plan for mosquito control efforts, potentially reducing the number of cases and deaths.