Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
A team of scientists from NCAS and the Met Office observed an unusual reversal of the expected pattern in equatorial winds. The quasi-biennial oscillation is a regular feature of the climate system, but its recent disruption may impact seasonal forecasts and future climate predictions.
Typhoon Namtheun is expected to make landfall in Japan's Kyushu island on Sept 3, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. The storm has a small eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms and is moving north at 7 mph.
Tropical Storm Hermine strengthened and organized in the Gulf of Mexico, with intense storms detected by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Rainfall rates reached over 9.9 inches per hour in powerful storms southwest of the storm's center.
Hurricane Gaston is maintaining its eye despite a degraded satellite appearance, according to NASA. The storm is expected to weaken further as it approaches the Azores Islands, with maximum sustained winds decreasing to near 85 mph.
Satellites show Hurricane Madeline has weakened from a Category 4 storm to a Category 1 storm as it approaches Hawaii. The storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and storm surge to the islands, with the potential for dangerous flash floods and mudslides.
Tropical Depression 8 is located just 85 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The depression is forecast to produce total rain accumulations of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches.
Typhoon Lionrock is a powerful storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots, forecast to make landfall near Tokyo on August 30th. Its intensity track remains uncertain, with some predicting it will weaken and others that it will remain strong.
Researchers from the University of Sheffield and The Met Office have identified factors influencing the Atlantic jet stream, potentially leading to more accurate seasonal forecasting. Up to 35% variability in the jet stream's shift may be predictable, offering a significant advance in climate prediction.
Tropical Depression 14W formed as a weak storm with isolated strong storms and a low-level center, but persistent wind shear prevented intensification. The storm is expected to move north and dissipate within 4-5 days.
Tropical Storm Lionrock is consolidating and strengthening under NASA's Terra satellite imagery. The storm has tracked south-southwestward at 5.7 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 63 mph.
Tropical Storm Chanthu is being affected by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves parallel to the island of Japan. The storm is expected to maintain strength over the next day before transitioning to a cold-core low pressure area.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research's WRF-Hydro model provides continuous predictions of water levels and potential flooding in rivers and streams across the contiguous United States. This enables better management of reservoirs, navigation along major rivers, and planning for droughts.
A severe low-pressure system brought intense tropical moisture to the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in record-breaking rainfall totals over southern Louisiana. At least 4 people have died in the floods, which also affected southeastern Mississippi and western Louisiana.
The IMERG data revealed the most extreme rainfall fell over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with estimates suggesting 20-35 inches of precipitation. Heavy rainfall and flooding have affected parts of Florida, Louisiana, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.
A solar storm in May 1967 jammed radar and radio communications at the height of the Cold War, prompting a potential military conflict. However, thanks to the U.S. Air Force's space weather forecasting efforts, the military action was prevented, and the nation avoided a disastrous nuclear exchange.
Tropical Depression 08W has improved convective structure and deep formative banding, indicating potential intensification. The storm is expected to reach typhoon strength by Aug. 11 as it moves west-northwest through the Northwestern Pacific Ocean.
Tropical Storm Darby has triggered warnings for Hawaii County and a watch for Maui County, with forecasters tracking its northward movement. The storm's strongest winds are located near its center, with sustained speeds of up to 60 mph.
NASA's RapidScat instrument revealed a cloud-filled eye in Hurricane Darby, with sustained winds exceeding 67 mph. The storm is expected to weaken further over the next 48 hours, becoming a tropical storm later today.
Tropical Storm Estelle is strengthening in the Eastern Pacific Ocean with NASA satellite imagery showing a developing eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The storm's cloud tops are near minus 80 Celsius, indicating strong convection and potential hurricane formation.
Tropical Storm Celia weakened in the Eastern Pacific Ocean with NASA data showing strongest winds and storms shifted north of the center. The Global Precipitation Measurement satellite found rain falling at over 164 mm per hour within a feeder band, indicating significant convective activity.
Tropical Depression 4E formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph. The depression is expected to become a tropical storm in three days and potentially reach hurricane status.
Researchers from the University of Washington and NOAA have created a seasonal outlook for Pacific Northwest waters, providing predictions for water oxygen, temperature, chlorophyll, and pH. The tool shows measurable skill on seasonal timescales, especially at the beginning of the spring upwelling season.
The NOAA-sponsored Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast predicts an average dead zone of 5,898 square miles, affecting nationally important commercial and recreational fisheries. The forecast uses multiple models to provide better information to communities and businesses, and aims to reduce the threat of hypoxic zones.
Heavy rainfall totals of over 20 inches were reported in parts of southeastern Texas, with IMERG estimating 431 mm (17 inches) during a week of major flooding. Flooding resulted in at least 6 deaths and a state of disaster was declared in 31 Texas counties.
The first wave of low-cost weather stations have been installed in Zambia, providing critically needed information for farmers and residents. The stations, built with 3D-printed parts, transmit temperature, rainfall, wind, and other weather parameters.
The University of Texas at Arlington associate professor has launched a new Android cell phone app called iSeeFlood to encourage public reports of flash flooding. The app integrates data from wireless sensors and radar systems to improve flash flood forecasting and warning systems, ultimately saving lives and property.
Penn State researchers found that incorporating 'hurricane hunter' data into weather prediction models can reduce forecast errors for wind speed and sea level pressure. This improvement can lead to billions of dollars in savings and provide more notice to people in the path of a storm.
Scientists have made significant breakthroughs in predicting weather and climate change by studying the fundamental thermodynamics of water droplets. Understanding how water droplets grow and interact with each other can help improve weather forecasts, but also has industrial relevance and applications.
The Suomi NPP satellite captured images of the Fort McMurray wildfire, revealing its spread and impact on nearby communities. The fire forced over 88,000 people to flee, destroying 1,600 homes and buildings, and scorching over 18,500 acres.
Tropical Cyclone Amos is affecting the Southwestern Pacific Islands, particularly Wallis and Futuna and American Samoa. The storm's maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 knots, with forecasters predicting intensification before a weakening trend begins.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captures organized circulation of Tropical Cyclone Amos, indicating imminent rapid intensification. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by April 22, with potential threat for flash flooding in American Samoa.
Scientists predict Indian monsoon's onset two weeks earlier and its withdrawal six weeks earlier than before. The new method uses network analysis of regional weather data to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for years affected by El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
A new study analyzes hailstorm distribution and characteristics over a 13-year period, finding distinct seasonal cycles and wind direction correlations. The research provides high-resolution insights for weather forecasting, climatology, agriculture, economics, and insurance.
Researchers map phytoplankton blooms using NASA satellite data, revealing El Nino's effect on the marine food web. Phytoplankton populations drop during El Nino events due to disrupted upwelling, impacting fisheries and fish populations.
The GPM core observatory satellite measured heavy rainfall rates of over 3.6 inches per hour in a powerful storm east of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The satellite also revealed the three-dimensional structure of precipitation in storms beneath it, showing storm tops reaching heights above 7.4 miles.
A new study led by Karen McKinnon at NCAR found that a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern US up to 50 days in advance. The research used data from 1,613 weather stations and daily sea surface temperatures to define extreme heat events...
Researchers used a distinct Pacific Ocean pattern to forecast increased summer heat wave odds in the eastern US up to 50 days ahead. The study improved seasonal forecasts by predicting daily extremes, with results showing potential for early warnings on critical weather events.
Researchers identified a pattern of anomalies in the Pacific Ocean's surface temperature that consistently precedes heat waves in the eastern US by up to seven weeks. The 'Pacific Extreme Pattern' is linked to a lack of precipitation, diverting moisture away from the region and drying the land surface.
Researchers at University of Oklahoma are developing a higher-resolution model that uses Stampede supercomputer to predict severe hail storms with greater accuracy. The goal is to provide 2-hour warnings for storms like the May 1995 Fort Worth Mayfest storm, which caused over $2 billion in damage.
NASA's RapidScat instrument detected tropical-storm-force winds in a weather system affecting the Pacific Northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada, bringing rain and snow to the region. Heavy rainfall totals of over 8 inches were estimated in some areas, with potential to alleviate California's long-lasting drought.
Researchers at OIST found that wind farms on a grid are part of a larger geographic weather system, leading to correlated power outputs. This challenges the assumption that geographically distributed wind farms are independent and poses difficulties in forecasting power output.
A new simulation code was developed to accurately predict coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impact on space weather. The model successfully validated using observational data from the 2003 Halloween CME events, enabling accurate predictions of magnetic fields and arrival times.
Tropical cyclone Yalo formed near Tahiti on Feb. 25, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing infrared and microwave data. The storm is forecast to intensify before running into adverse conditions, threatening French Polynesia and Austral Islands.
A University of Washington study found that small-scale disturbances, like those from butterfly wings, do not significantly impact weather forecasts. However, even minor errors in large-scale observations can throw off a forecast, emphasizing the importance of precise measurements.
Tropical Cyclone Winston is intensifying over the Southern Pacific Ocean, affecting Tonga with gale warnings issued for Niue and waters east of Vava'u. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Winston to continue strengthening before turning west and heading north of Tonga.
Scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center are developing a model called Solar Shield to simulate how space weather affects the US power grid. By analyzing coronal mass ejections and solar wind streams, researchers can predict when and where geomagnetic storms will occur, allowing for proactive measures to protect the grid.
RapidScat instrument measures high winds in Tropical Cyclone Daya, while Aqua satellite detects cold cloud top temperatures. The storm is expected to weaken due to increasing wind shear.
RapidScat measures surface winds in intensifying tropical cyclone Tatiana, providing forecasters with pinpoint data to track strongest winds. The storm is currently well offshore and poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.
Tropical Storm 10S formed over the Southern Indian Ocean after being tracked by NASA's Terra satellite. The storm's maximum sustained winds reached 35 knots (40 mph) on Feb 10 and are expected to peak at 50 knots (57.5 mph) on Feb 11 before weakening due to strong wind shear.
A tropical low-pressure area is consolidating into a depression in the Southern Indian Ocean, with powerful convective storms dropping rain at a rate of over 3.7 inches per hour near Madagascar's eastern coast. The system's winds are expected to continue developing over the next 24 hours, posing a threat to the region.
Tropical Cyclone Stan is intensifying off Western Australia's coast, expected to make landfall on Saturday afternoon. The system will track steadily south-southeast and reach category 3 status before crossing the coast.
A developing tropical low pressure area, System 92S, is expected to become a depression in the next day or two off Australia's northwestern coast. NASA's GPM satellite gathered data indicating rain falling at rates of up to 96.7 mm/h and storm tops reaching altitudes of over 16 km.
University of Washington scientists developed a mathematical model to explain the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a massive cluster of thunderstorms that affects global weather. The model predicts storm movement and formation, helping improve tropical rainstorm forecasts and medium-range global forecasts.
NASA satellite imagery captured a massive low-pressure system affecting the U.S. East Coast, causing heavy snow and blizzard conditions in areas like Baltimore/Washington and New England. The storm intensified over the Delmarva Peninsula before moving northeast off the coast of the Carolinas.
A historic blizzard is forecast for Washington, D.C., while states from Texas to Florida experience severe weather due to a developing winter storm. Severe weather, including hail and at least one reported tornado, has been observed along the Gulf Coast.
NASA's RapidScat instrument and Aqua satellite captured data on the storm, which formed from a low-pressure area. It became the first hurricane to form in January since 1938 and is expected to maintain hurricane status until January 16.
NASA's Aqua satellite shows strongest storms within a consolidated system, while NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery reveals increased cloudiness and thunderstorms near the center. The National Hurricane Center predicts a medium chance of development into a depression over the next five days.
Tropical Storm Ula strengthened over the night of Jan. 6-7, with sustained winds reaching up to 63.2 mph around its center. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects the system to curve south, affecting New Caledonia and northern New Zealand.
High-frequency atmospheric observations in the Arctic Ocean improved wind field accuracy, reducing uncertainty in sea-ice forecasts and predicting severe weather phenomena. The study suggests that a cost-effective observing network can be established to enhance polar predictions.
NASA's RapidScat instrument measured surface winds in Tropical Storm Ula, finding the strongest sustained winds near 29 meters per second/south of the center. The storm is expected to weaken due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters.