Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
The NOAA-sponsored Gulf of Mexico hypoxia forecast predicts an average dead zone of 5,898 square miles, affecting nationally important commercial and recreational fisheries. The forecast uses multiple models to provide better information to communities and businesses, and aims to reduce the threat of hypoxic zones.
Heavy rainfall totals of over 20 inches were reported in parts of southeastern Texas, with IMERG estimating 431 mm (17 inches) during a week of major flooding. Flooding resulted in at least 6 deaths and a state of disaster was declared in 31 Texas counties.
The first wave of low-cost weather stations have been installed in Zambia, providing critically needed information for farmers and residents. The stations, built with 3D-printed parts, transmit temperature, rainfall, wind, and other weather parameters.
The University of Texas at Arlington associate professor has launched a new Android cell phone app called iSeeFlood to encourage public reports of flash flooding. The app integrates data from wireless sensors and radar systems to improve flash flood forecasting and warning systems, ultimately saving lives and property.
Penn State researchers found that incorporating 'hurricane hunter' data into weather prediction models can reduce forecast errors for wind speed and sea level pressure. This improvement can lead to billions of dollars in savings and provide more notice to people in the path of a storm.
Scientists have made significant breakthroughs in predicting weather and climate change by studying the fundamental thermodynamics of water droplets. Understanding how water droplets grow and interact with each other can help improve weather forecasts, but also has industrial relevance and applications.
The Suomi NPP satellite captured images of the Fort McMurray wildfire, revealing its spread and impact on nearby communities. The fire forced over 88,000 people to flee, destroying 1,600 homes and buildings, and scorching over 18,500 acres.
Tropical Cyclone Amos is affecting the Southwestern Pacific Islands, particularly Wallis and Futuna and American Samoa. The storm's maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 knots, with forecasters predicting intensification before a weakening trend begins.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captures organized circulation of Tropical Cyclone Amos, indicating imminent rapid intensification. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by April 22, with potential threat for flash flooding in American Samoa.
Scientists predict Indian monsoon's onset two weeks earlier and its withdrawal six weeks earlier than before. The new method uses network analysis of regional weather data to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for years affected by El Nino-Southern Oscillation.
A new study analyzes hailstorm distribution and characteristics over a 13-year period, finding distinct seasonal cycles and wind direction correlations. The research provides high-resolution insights for weather forecasting, climatology, agriculture, economics, and insurance.
Researchers map phytoplankton blooms using NASA satellite data, revealing El Nino's effect on the marine food web. Phytoplankton populations drop during El Nino events due to disrupted upwelling, impacting fisheries and fish populations.
The GPM core observatory satellite measured heavy rainfall rates of over 3.6 inches per hour in a powerful storm east of Chattanooga, Tennessee. The satellite also revealed the three-dimensional structure of precipitation in storms beneath it, showing storm tops reaching heights above 7.4 miles.
Researchers used a distinct Pacific Ocean pattern to forecast increased summer heat wave odds in the eastern US up to 50 days ahead. The study improved seasonal forecasts by predicting daily extremes, with results showing potential for early warnings on critical weather events.
Researchers identified a pattern of anomalies in the Pacific Ocean's surface temperature that consistently precedes heat waves in the eastern US by up to seven weeks. The 'Pacific Extreme Pattern' is linked to a lack of precipitation, diverting moisture away from the region and drying the land surface.
A new study led by Karen McKinnon at NCAR found that a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern US up to 50 days in advance. The research used data from 1,613 weather stations and daily sea surface temperatures to define extreme heat events...
Researchers at University of Oklahoma are developing a higher-resolution model that uses Stampede supercomputer to predict severe hail storms with greater accuracy. The goal is to provide 2-hour warnings for storms like the May 1995 Fort Worth Mayfest storm, which caused over $2 billion in damage.
NASA's RapidScat instrument detected tropical-storm-force winds in a weather system affecting the Pacific Northwestern U.S. and southwestern Canada, bringing rain and snow to the region. Heavy rainfall totals of over 8 inches were estimated in some areas, with potential to alleviate California's long-lasting drought.
Researchers at OIST found that wind farms on a grid are part of a larger geographic weather system, leading to correlated power outputs. This challenges the assumption that geographically distributed wind farms are independent and poses difficulties in forecasting power output.
A new simulation code was developed to accurately predict coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their impact on space weather. The model successfully validated using observational data from the 2003 Halloween CME events, enabling accurate predictions of magnetic fields and arrival times.
Tropical cyclone Yalo formed near Tahiti on Feb. 25, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing infrared and microwave data. The storm is forecast to intensify before running into adverse conditions, threatening French Polynesia and Austral Islands.
A University of Washington study found that small-scale disturbances, like those from butterfly wings, do not significantly impact weather forecasts. However, even minor errors in large-scale observations can throw off a forecast, emphasizing the importance of precise measurements.
Tropical Cyclone Winston is intensifying over the Southern Pacific Ocean, affecting Tonga with gale warnings issued for Niue and waters east of Vava'u. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts Winston to continue strengthening before turning west and heading north of Tonga.
Scientists from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center are developing a model called Solar Shield to simulate how space weather affects the US power grid. By analyzing coronal mass ejections and solar wind streams, researchers can predict when and where geomagnetic storms will occur, allowing for proactive measures to protect the grid.
RapidScat measures surface winds in intensifying tropical cyclone Tatiana, providing forecasters with pinpoint data to track strongest winds. The storm is currently well offshore and poses no immediate threat to the Queensland coast.
RapidScat instrument measures high winds in Tropical Cyclone Daya, while Aqua satellite detects cold cloud top temperatures. The storm is expected to weaken due to increasing wind shear.
Tropical Storm 10S formed over the Southern Indian Ocean after being tracked by NASA's Terra satellite. The storm's maximum sustained winds reached 35 knots (40 mph) on Feb 10 and are expected to peak at 50 knots (57.5 mph) on Feb 11 before weakening due to strong wind shear.
A tropical low-pressure area is consolidating into a depression in the Southern Indian Ocean, with powerful convective storms dropping rain at a rate of over 3.7 inches per hour near Madagascar's eastern coast. The system's winds are expected to continue developing over the next 24 hours, posing a threat to the region.
Tropical Cyclone Stan is intensifying off Western Australia's coast, expected to make landfall on Saturday afternoon. The system will track steadily south-southeast and reach category 3 status before crossing the coast.
A developing tropical low pressure area, System 92S, is expected to become a depression in the next day or two off Australia's northwestern coast. NASA's GPM satellite gathered data indicating rain falling at rates of up to 96.7 mm/h and storm tops reaching altitudes of over 16 km.
University of Washington scientists developed a mathematical model to explain the Madden-Julian Oscillation, a massive cluster of thunderstorms that affects global weather. The model predicts storm movement and formation, helping improve tropical rainstorm forecasts and medium-range global forecasts.
NASA satellite imagery captured a massive low-pressure system affecting the U.S. East Coast, causing heavy snow and blizzard conditions in areas like Baltimore/Washington and New England. The storm intensified over the Delmarva Peninsula before moving northeast off the coast of the Carolinas.
A historic blizzard is forecast for Washington, D.C., while states from Texas to Florida experience severe weather due to a developing winter storm. Severe weather, including hail and at least one reported tornado, has been observed along the Gulf Coast.
NASA's RapidScat instrument and Aqua satellite captured data on the storm, which formed from a low-pressure area. It became the first hurricane to form in January since 1938 and is expected to maintain hurricane status until January 16.
NASA's Aqua satellite shows strongest storms within a consolidated system, while NOAA's GOES-East satellite imagery reveals increased cloudiness and thunderstorms near the center. The National Hurricane Center predicts a medium chance of development into a depression over the next five days.
High-frequency atmospheric observations in the Arctic Ocean improved wind field accuracy, reducing uncertainty in sea-ice forecasts and predicting severe weather phenomena. The study suggests that a cost-effective observing network can be established to enhance polar predictions.
Tropical Storm Ula strengthened over the night of Jan. 6-7, with sustained winds reaching up to 63.2 mph around its center. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects the system to curve south, affecting New Caledonia and northern New Zealand.
NASA's RapidScat instrument measured surface winds in Tropical Storm Ula, finding the strongest sustained winds near 29 meters per second/south of the center. The storm is expected to weaken due to increasing vertical wind shear and cooler waters.
Tropical Cyclone Ula affected Fiji over Jan. 2-3, but moved south by Jan. 4, losing its eye and decreasing to Category 1 hurricane. Warnings for surrounding islands remain in force due to a nearby trough of low pressure.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captured a consolidating storm in the Southern Pacific Ocean as System 92P on Dec 29, 2015. The low-pressure area organized and was designated Tropical Cyclone Ula on Dec 30, 2015, near American Samoa.
The NASA GPM mission analyzed extreme weather in the US from December 2015, detecting heavy rainfall, tornado outbreaks, and record-breaking flooding. The analysis revealed a line of tornadic thunderstorms moving through the Midwest, generating two tornadoes and 14 deaths.
A UK-led study found that seal tags can improve ocean forecasts by providing valuable temperature and salinity recordings in regions rarely sampled. This could lead to better weather predictions and improved marine conditions for industries such as shipping and offshore oil and gas operations.
NASA's RapidScat instrument identified the storm's strongest winds north of the center, which were near 36 meters per second/80.5 mph/129.6 kph on Dec. 13, 2015. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) captured a visible image of Typhoon Melor as it made landfall in eastern Visayas and Bicol regions.
Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the Southern Indian Ocean, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing its formation and development. The cyclone intensified into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm, but faces challenges including dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures that may weaken it.
NCAR will develop a revolutionary forecasting system to predict wildland fire behavior in Colorado, capturing critical feedbacks between fires and local weather. The system will provide unprecedented detail about interactions between weather and fire, helping firefighters and the public.
Researchers at UTA are developing an integrated decision support tool to optimize water supply systems, allowing water providers to make informed decisions about when to transfer water between reservoirs. The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System will provide a range of possible values for cost-effective decisions.
Tropical Storm Rick weakened into a post-tropical cyclone, with NASA's RapidScat instrument detecting strongest winds on its eastern side. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in a few days, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph.
Data from NASA's GPM core satellite showed Tropical Storm In-fa becoming better organized over the previous 24 hours, with rainfall rates reaching up to 55 mm/h. The storm is expected to intensify through the weekend, bringing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Tropical Depression 21E formed southwest of Mexico's western coast on November 18. The storm is expected to strengthen and become a tropical storm by Thursday, with a turn towards the northwest.
Typhoon In-fa intensified into a typhoon near Micronesia, prompting warnings and advisories for the region. The storm is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west-northwest through Micronesia and the Marianas, bringing stronger winds and heavier showers.
Tropical Storm 27W formed in the Marianas Islands, bringing warnings for Micronesia. The storm's center was located near latitude 4.7 degrees north and longitude 159.8 degrees east, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 40 mph.
Researchers developed software to detect cyber threats in near-real-time, increasing security capabilities. A new mass spectrometry technology collected more ions, enhancing accuracy in chemical analysis.
The new Transregional Collaborative Research Center 'Waves to Weather' aims to improve forecast models by analyzing ensemble forecasts and studying predictability. Scientists will investigate the physical processes and interactions behind severe weather events, with the goal of developing new models and methods to extend forecast range.
Extra-Tropical Storm Kate rapidly intensified off the US East Coast, producing hurricane-force winds before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. As it moves northeast, Kate's winds are expected to weaken over the next few days, eventually being absorbed by another low-pressure system.
Researchers at RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science in Japan ran an enormous global weather simulation with 10,240 simulations of a model of the global atmosphere. They found that faraway observations can impact the eventual state of the weather forecast, which could lead to more accurate forecasts.
A computer model developed by University of Hawaii researchers can accurately forecast the movement of vog around the state, posing a serious threat to health and ecosystems. The model uses sulfur dioxide emissions and wind predictions to provide near-real-time forecasts.
A study published in Weather found that fireworks on Guy Fawkes' night can reduce visibility by an average of 25% due to the release of hygroscopic particulate matter. This effect is exacerbated when relative humidity is high, posing significant safety risks for motorist and pedestrian safety.
A research team developed predictive models of flu-like activity combining data from Google, Twitter, EHRs, and crowd-sourced flu data. Ensemble modeling outperforms individual data sources and rivals CDC's retrospective reporting accuracy.
Using historical intensity data from Japan, researchers found that uniform and randomized versions of earthquake hazard maps outperform published maps in predicting shaking. The study aims to provide a more accurate understanding of how these maps work and their limitations.
A new study combines data from various sources to create more accurate flu forecasts. The ensemble models outperform traditional methods, including Google Flu Trends, and provide near-perfect correlation with CDC reports. Researchers hope to expand the model's capabilities to track other diseases.