Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
A new EU report highlights knowledge gaps in reducing risks linked to space weather and recommends policy, industry, and science collaborations to close these gaps. The report also emphasizes the need for early warning systems and better communication between science and industry.
Physicists developed a simple mathematical model to predict turbulent flows and verified it physically in a lab. They identified exact coherent structures (ECSs) that provide entry points for computing predictions about future turbulence behavior.
Researchers used enhanced Arctic weather data to predict 2015's extreme cold waves, improving forecast accuracy by 10-30%. The additional data helped assess initial atmospheric conditions and dynamics of the polar vortex, enabling more precise forecasts.
Researchers found that rogue waves occur roughly twice daily at any given location in a storm and are not as rare as previously believed. The study provides critical information for designing and operating ships and platforms safely in extreme conditions.
Tropical Cyclone Enawo made landfall in northeastern Madagascar as a Category 4 hurricane, bringing severe damage and power outages to the region. The storm's maximum sustained winds reached 144 mph, with warnings posted throughout northern Madagascar.
The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument on NOAA's GOES-16 satellite is transmitting data for the first time, giving forecasters richer information about lightning and improving severe weather alerts. The mapper detects in-cloud lightning, which can occur up to 10 minutes before potentially deadly cloud-to-ground strikes.
Tropical Storm Enawo formed in the Southern Indian Ocean, northeast of Madagascar. The NASA-NOAA Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of the storm, showing a concentration of thunderstorms around its center. Enawo is forecast to track along Madagascar's east coast and strengthen into a hurricane in 3-4 days.
Researchers developed a forecasting model to predict WNV outbreaks, generating accurate forecasts for mosquito infection rates and human cases up to nine weeks prior. This method could give public health officials more time to plan for mosquito control efforts, potentially reducing the number of cases and deaths.
NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission has estimated significant rainfall from the Pineapple Express in southwestern Oregon and northern California. The storms brought heavy rains, with parts of Arizona receiving moderate to heavy precipitation as well.
A large storm system is expected to bring heavy rain and strong winds to southern California, with rainfall totals reaching up to 6 inches in coastal areas and 10 inches in mountain locations. A second storm system is also heading towards the east, bringing flash flood risks and rapid runoff to fire-scarred areas.
A novel air quality model, REGiS, can predict surface ozone levels up to 48 hours in advance by combining statistical models with weather patterns. This method provides a 48-hour heads-up for air quality forecasters and decision-makers to mitigate unhealthy ozone level formation.
Tropical Cyclone Dineo strengthened in the Mozambique Channel, with NASA tracking its progress. The cyclone's winds are expected to reach hurricane strength and peak at 75 knots by February 15, posing a threat to residents of Mozambique.
The Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) instrument on NOAA's GOES-16 satellite is successfully sending data back to Earth, providing insights into charged particle fluxes. This information will help the Space Weather Prediction Center issue early warnings of high-flux events, protecting lives and equipment from radiation hazards.
The new Cheyenne supercomputer provides a major tool for advancing understanding of the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences. Scientists will use it to study phenomena such as wildfires and seismic activity, leading to better protecting society from natural disasters.
Researchers S. George Philander and Mark A. Cane developed a key insight that the Pacific Ocean's weather balance swings seesaw-like between extremes, leading to practical forecasts of El Niño events. Their work enabled institutions worldwide to monitor warning signs for crop planting, disease control, and floods or droughts.
The frequency of meteorological disasters has increased due to global warming, causing severe social and economic losses in China and globally. The Collaborative Innovation Center on the Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters aims to resolve key issues related to these phenomena through joint research.
A new $525,000 grant aims to improve understanding of shallow cumulus clouds' behavior, which play a crucial role in atmospheric circulation and global climate. The research will focus on the mixing process called entrainment, aiming to enhance weather forecasts and climate model projections.
The new data from the SMAP satellite is providing significant surprises that will help in the modeling of climate, forecasting of weather, and monitoring of agriculture around the world. The topsoil's 'memory' for weather anomalies persists for a matter of days, contrary to expectations.
A series of moisture-laden storms has affected the western US, including California and the Pacific Northwest, causing extreme rain events and blanketeting the region in snow. The National Weather Service is forecasting heavy snows and periods of rain with potential flooding or flash flooding along the West Coast.
A team of researchers from York University, NASA, and Johns Hopkins University have identified icy features on Pluto, including penitentes, which are bowl-shaped depressions with spires around the edge. The study suggests that these features may exist on other planets where environmental conditions are similar.
Researchers at UC San Diego developed practical strategies for building and coordinating balloons within hurricanes, using GPS and cellphone-grade sensors. The approach leverages control theory to distribute balloons horizontally and mitigate turbulence fluctuations, enabling improved in-situ sampling and forecasts.
Tropical Storm Nock-ten strengthened from a tropical depression, with maximum sustained winds near 52 mph. The storm is forecast to intensify into a typhoon by Dec 24 and track through the Philippines on Dec 25-26.
Tropical Depression 30W has formed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean with strong thunderstorms and a concentrated area of cold cloud top temperatures. The storm is moving west-northwest at 9.2 mph and is expected to intensify into a typhoon by Dec. 24.
Tropical Cyclone 02S has developed strong thunderstorms, with cold cloud top temperatures near -63°F (-53°C), according to NASA's Aqua satellite data. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts the storm will curve toward the southeast and make landfall south of Broome on Dec. 25.
Cold Arctic air masses brought frigid temperatures to the US, with temperatures as low as -30 degrees Celsius detected at high altitudes. The air mass shifted east on Dec 9, impacting Ohio Valley and New England regions.
Researchers at UT Austin found that incorporating snow data from space into climate models can improve seasonal temperature predictions. The study improved regional temperature predictions by 5 to 25 percent, with the biggest improvements happening in regions where ground-based measurements are sparse.
Experts reassess temperature trends, finding that global warming slowed less from 1998 to 2012, peaking in 2016 at a level around 1.5ºC above its level early in the Industrial Revolution. Global temperatures remain high due to exceptionally low sea-ice extent in both hemispheres.
A new computer model developed by Columbia University researchers predicts influenza outbreaks with 82% accuracy at a week's notice, particularly for small upticks. The model also forecasts outbreak duration and magnitude, but its accuracy varies depending on the severity of the outbreak.
CIMMS and NOAA announce a five-year, $95.3 million collaboration to support Weather Ready Nation and Climate Adaptation and Mitigation initiatives. The university will provide expertise in long-term planning, stormscale meteorological phenomena research, and forecast improvements.
The GOES-R satellite will provide unprecedented information about the Earth's weather, including true-color pictures and high-definition imagery. This will enable forecasters to make more accurate predictions of severe storms, squall lines, and tropical cyclones.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captured remnant clouds of Tropical Storm Tina, which weakened to a low-pressure area. The storm's remnants are expected to track west and encounter hostile atmospheric conditions, leading to further weakening.
The €8 million APPLICATE project aims to enhance weather and climate prediction capabilities in the Arctic and beyond. By studying the Arctic's impact on mid-latitude weather and climate, researchers can improve forecast accuracy and mitigate severe weather events.
University of Washington researchers have developed a method to transform lightning strikes into weather-relevant information, improving storm forecasts. The new method uses data from the WorldWide Lightning Location Network and has been tested on several cases, including a 2012 derecho thunderstorm system and a 2013 tornado.
A recent study used a convective-permitting ensemble forecast system to evaluate the extreme rainfall event on July 21, 2012, in Beijing. The results showed that some members of the ensemble forecasting system captured the extreme prediction reasonably well, including the timing and location of extreme precipitation.
Tropical Storm Meari is forecast to intensify in the western Pacific Ocean, with a high chance of reaching 85 knots (97mph). The storm's organized low-level circulation and favorable environment will contribute to its steady growth.
D.J. Seo and his team aim to enhance National Weather Service rainfall maps for heavy-to-extreme events, benefiting emergency managers, water managers, and the public.
A new study found that climate change may be amplifying the effects of wavy jet stream patterns, contributing to severe cold winters. The research improves long-term forecasting of winter weather in populous regions, benefiting communities and economies.
The Observation, Prediction and Analysis of Severe Convection of China (OPACC) project aims to improve the prediction skills of convective storms. Researchers have published 224 papers on convective weather in peer-reviewed journals since 2013.
Scientists found that analyzing snowmelt and soil moisture could have predicted the 2012 US drought up to four months in advance. The study used a combination of observations and a regional model ensemble to improve seasonal drought forecasts.
Tropical Storm Sarika made a direct hit on Hainan Island, China, as observed by NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite. The storm's maximum sustained winds dropped to 63 mph, and it is forecast to cross the Gulf of Tonkin and make final landfall in northern Vietnam.
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite captures visible image of Typhoon Sarika in the South China Sea. The storm is forecasted to make its second landfall near Hainan Island, China, before continuing west and impacting northern Vietnam.
Current weather prediction models can forecast rainfall up to two days in advance, but accuracy decreases with longer lead times. The study examines five state-of-the-art models and finds that improved understanding of hurricanes will enhance forecasting capabilities.
NASA-NOAA satellites captured detailed images of Hurricane Matthew's cloud tops, revealing temperatures as low as minus 80 F (-62.2 C), indicating strong storm uplift and potential heavy rain generation.
Tropical Storm Aere intensified over warm sea surface temperatures before moving northwest. As of Oct. 7, the storm's maximum sustained winds reached near 52 mph, forcing a Standby signal #1 in Hong Kong.
Tropical Depression Aere, formerly known as 22W, is a western-tracking storm that entered the South China Sea. The depression has maximum sustained winds near 34.5 mph and is forecast to become a tropical storm, tracking west-southwest over several days.
Hurricane Matthew is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane as it approaches the east coast of Florida. The storm has already made landfall in western Haiti and is moving through the Bahamas.
A team of scientists from NCAS and the Met Office observed an unusual reversal of the expected pattern in equatorial winds. The quasi-biennial oscillation is a regular feature of the climate system, but its recent disruption may impact seasonal forecasts and future climate predictions.
Typhoon Namtheun is expected to make landfall in Japan's Kyushu island on Sept 3, with maximum sustained winds near 115 mph. The storm has a small eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms and is moving north at 7 mph.
Tropical Storm Hermine strengthened and organized in the Gulf of Mexico, with intense storms detected by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Rainfall rates reached over 9.9 inches per hour in powerful storms southwest of the storm's center.
Hurricane Gaston is maintaining its eye despite a degraded satellite appearance, according to NASA. The storm is expected to weaken further as it approaches the Azores Islands, with maximum sustained winds decreasing to near 85 mph.
Satellites show Hurricane Madeline has weakened from a Category 4 storm to a Category 1 storm as it approaches Hawaii. The storm is expected to bring tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and storm surge to the islands, with the potential for dangerous flash floods and mudslides.
Tropical Depression 8 is located just 85 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, with maximum sustained winds of 35 mph. The depression is forecast to produce total rain accumulations of 1-3 inches with isolated amounts up to 5 inches.
Typhoon Lionrock is a powerful storm with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots, forecast to make landfall near Tokyo on August 30th. Its intensity track remains uncertain, with some predicting it will weaken and others that it will remain strong.
Researchers from the University of Sheffield and The Met Office have identified factors influencing the Atlantic jet stream, potentially leading to more accurate seasonal forecasting. Up to 35% variability in the jet stream's shift may be predictable, offering a significant advance in climate prediction.
Tropical Depression 14W formed as a weak storm with isolated strong storms and a low-level center, but persistent wind shear prevented intensification. The storm is expected to move north and dissipate within 4-5 days.
Tropical Storm Lionrock is consolidating and strengthening under NASA's Terra satellite imagery. The storm has tracked south-southwestward at 5.7 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 63 mph.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research's WRF-Hydro model provides continuous predictions of water levels and potential flooding in rivers and streams across the contiguous United States. This enables better management of reservoirs, navigation along major rivers, and planning for droughts.
Tropical Storm Chanthu is being affected by moderate southwesterly vertical wind shear as it moves parallel to the island of Japan. The storm is expected to maintain strength over the next day before transitioning to a cold-core low pressure area.
A severe low-pressure system brought intense tropical moisture to the Gulf of Mexico, resulting in record-breaking rainfall totals over southern Louisiana. At least 4 people have died in the floods, which also affected southeastern Mississippi and western Louisiana.
The IMERG data revealed the most extreme rainfall fell over the northern Gulf of Mexico, with estimates suggesting 20-35 inches of precipitation. Heavy rainfall and flooding have affected parts of Florida, Louisiana, and the Mississippi Gulf Coast.