Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Tropical Cyclone Ula affected Fiji over Jan. 2-3, but moved south by Jan. 4, losing its eye and decreasing to Category 1 hurricane. Warnings for surrounding islands remain in force due to a nearby trough of low pressure.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captured a consolidating storm in the Southern Pacific Ocean as System 92P on Dec 29, 2015. The low-pressure area organized and was designated Tropical Cyclone Ula on Dec 30, 2015, near American Samoa.
The NASA GPM mission analyzed extreme weather in the US from December 2015, detecting heavy rainfall, tornado outbreaks, and record-breaking flooding. The analysis revealed a line of tornadic thunderstorms moving through the Midwest, generating two tornadoes and 14 deaths.
A UK-led study found that seal tags can improve ocean forecasts by providing valuable temperature and salinity recordings in regions rarely sampled. This could lead to better weather predictions and improved marine conditions for industries such as shipping and offshore oil and gas operations.
NASA's RapidScat instrument identified the storm's strongest winds north of the center, which were near 36 meters per second/80.5 mph/129.6 kph on Dec. 13, 2015. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) captured a visible image of Typhoon Melor as it made landfall in eastern Visayas and Bicol regions.
Tropical Cyclone 05S formed over the Southern Indian Ocean, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing its formation and development. The cyclone intensified into a tropical depression and then a tropical storm, but faces challenges including dry air and cooler sea surface temperatures that may weaken it.
NCAR will develop a revolutionary forecasting system to predict wildland fire behavior in Colorado, capturing critical feedbacks between fires and local weather. The system will provide unprecedented detail about interactions between weather and fire, helping firefighters and the public.
Researchers at UTA are developing an integrated decision support tool to optimize water supply systems, allowing water providers to make informed decisions about when to transfer water between reservoirs. The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System will provide a range of possible values for cost-effective decisions.
Tropical Storm Rick weakened into a post-tropical cyclone, with NASA's RapidScat instrument detecting strongest winds on its eastern side. The remnant low is expected to dissipate in a few days, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph.
Data from NASA's GPM core satellite showed Tropical Storm In-fa becoming better organized over the previous 24 hours, with rainfall rates reaching up to 55 mm/h. The storm is expected to intensify through the weekend, bringing maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Tropical Depression 21E formed southwest of Mexico's western coast on November 18. The storm is expected to strengthen and become a tropical storm by Thursday, with a turn towards the northwest.
Typhoon In-fa intensified into a typhoon near Micronesia, prompting warnings and advisories for the region. The storm is expected to continue intensifying as it moves west-northwest through Micronesia and the Marianas, bringing stronger winds and heavier showers.
Tropical Storm 27W formed in the Marianas Islands, bringing warnings for Micronesia. The storm's center was located near latitude 4.7 degrees north and longitude 159.8 degrees east, with maximum sustained winds increasing to 40 mph.
Researchers developed software to detect cyber threats in near-real-time, increasing security capabilities. A new mass spectrometry technology collected more ions, enhancing accuracy in chemical analysis.
The new Transregional Collaborative Research Center 'Waves to Weather' aims to improve forecast models by analyzing ensemble forecasts and studying predictability. Scientists will investigate the physical processes and interactions behind severe weather events, with the goal of developing new models and methods to extend forecast range.
Extra-Tropical Storm Kate rapidly intensified off the US East Coast, producing hurricane-force winds before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. As it moves northeast, Kate's winds are expected to weaken over the next few days, eventually being absorbed by another low-pressure system.
Researchers at RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science in Japan ran an enormous global weather simulation with 10,240 simulations of a model of the global atmosphere. They found that faraway observations can impact the eventual state of the weather forecast, which could lead to more accurate forecasts.
A computer model developed by University of Hawaii researchers can accurately forecast the movement of vog around the state, posing a serious threat to health and ecosystems. The model uses sulfur dioxide emissions and wind predictions to provide near-real-time forecasts.
A study published in Weather found that fireworks on Guy Fawkes' night can reduce visibility by an average of 25% due to the release of hygroscopic particulate matter. This effect is exacerbated when relative humidity is high, posing significant safety risks for motorist and pedestrian safety.
Using historical intensity data from Japan, researchers found that uniform and randomized versions of earthquake hazard maps outperform published maps in predicting shaking. The study aims to provide a more accurate understanding of how these maps work and their limitations.
A new study combines data from various sources to create more accurate flu forecasts. The ensemble models outperform traditional methods, including Google Flu Trends, and provide near-perfect correlation with CDC reports. Researchers hope to expand the model's capabilities to track other diseases.
A research team developed predictive models of flu-like activity combining data from Google, Twitter, EHRs, and crowd-sourced flu data. Ensemble modeling outperforms individual data sources and rivals CDC's retrospective reporting accuracy.
NASA's RapidScat instrument captured windy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, fueled by remnant moisture from Hurricane Patricia and Gulf of Mexico moisture. The National Weather Service predicted widespread rainfall across the eastern third of the US, with heaviest amounts expected along the I-95 corridor.
The Global Precipitation Measurement mission tracked rainfall within Storm Olaf, revealing high storm tops and sparse rain on the western side. The post-tropical cyclone weakened over cooler waters, eventually dissipating by October 28, 2015.
RapidScat data revealed strong winds in the remnants of Typhoon Champi near Alaska, with wind speeds reaching up to 80.5 mph/129.6 kph. The storm's effects brought rain, gusty winds, and warmer than normal temperatures to the region.
Tropical Storm Champi was over Guam and the Marianas Islands when NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument showed strongest thunderstorms in its western quadrant and over Guam.
A team of scientists from the National Oceanography Centre are on a six-week expedition to the Bahamas to update and acquire data from ocean instruments. This data helps make long-term forecasts of weather and climate by feeding it into models of the ocean and atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Champi affects the Northwestern Pacific Ocean with strongest thunderstorms east-southeast of its low-level center. The storm is about 218 nautical miles northeast of Saipan, moving west at 16 knots, with maximum sustained winds near 50 knots.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite spotted the 25th tropical depression in the northwestern Pacific Ocean on October 13. The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm and pass near Guam by October 16.
Researchers at the University of Reading and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts found that accounting for unusual winds miles up in the stratosphere can make long-range winter weather forecasts twice as accurate. This allows forecasters to predict extreme winter weather events up to four weeks before they occur, providi...
Hurricane Joaquin's infrared data revealed the storm was transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone due to weaker storms and less uplift in the air. The system lacked sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone.
Tropical Storm Oho weakened over cool waters and transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone with strong wind shear, affecting its path. The storm moved over very cool waters near 22 Celsius, which is below the minimum temperature required to maintain intensity.
Tropical Depression 11 strengthened into Tropical Storm Joaquin despite experiencing vertical wind shear, according to NASA's Aqua satellite data. The storm's elongated shape is attributed to the strong winds, but research suggests that high-level storms can generate heavy rain and strengthen.
Typhoon Dujuan made landfall in southeastern China on September 29, with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (86 mph). The storm is forecast to weaken quickly as it moves northward ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
Tropical Storm Joaquin formed in the western Atlantic on September 28, fueled by rain rates of up to 60 mm/hr. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next two days as it moves northward ahead of an upper-level trough.
Tropical Storm Marty is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds along the Mexican west coast, posing a threat of flooding and mudslides. The storm's maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts and estimated central pressure at 990 millibars.
Typhoon Dujuan approached Taiwan with sustained winds near 100 mph and cloud top temperatures of -81F, generating heavy rainfall. NASA satellites provided detailed data on the storm's clouds and winds, helping forecasters track its movement and expected landfall in southeastern China.
Typhoon Dujuan's large eye was visible from space after strengthening into a typhoon. The storm's eye is about 25 nautical miles wide and is expected to track just north of Ishigakijima Island, Japan on September 27.
The Desert Research Institute's new WINDS platform provides actionable insight for businesses, utilities, and municipalities impacted by extreme weather. With improved weather forecast data and sensor networks, the platform translates data into decision-making support frameworks.
Tropical Storm Krovanh has a 'comma shape' with thunderstorms stretching over the northern Marianas Islands. Maximum sustained winds near 55 knots are expected to reach 115 knots on Sept 18 before turning northeast, becoming extra-tropical.
NASA's Aqua satellite captures powerful thunderstorms and cloud top temperatures around -63F/-53C in Tropical Depression 20W, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm is expected to strengthen and potentially affect the Northern Marianas Islands and Japan by September 19.
Researchers at University of Toronto develop model predicting tornado activity relative to changes in atmospheric conditions. The model takes into account instability and vertical windshear, shedding light on why actual tornado activity is vastly underestimated.
Tropical Storm Kevin strengthened due to rapidly increasing surface winds observed by NASA's RapidScat, now at maximum sustained speeds of near 40 mph. Forecasters expect minimal change in strength over the next day or so.
Hurricane Jimena is classified as a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph. The Global Precipitation Measurement satellite detected a double eye-wall structure with evidence of erosion, indicating decay and weakening of the storm's inner eyewall.
Researchers at CU-Boulder have developed a new technique for estimating sea ice concentration, improving US Navy forecasts by almost 40%. The blended input approach combines satellite data and human interpretation to capture smaller patches of sea ice, enhancing forecast accuracy.
Tropical Storm Erika was centered in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, affecting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The storm produced total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ignacio was measured by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite on August 27, with rates reaching over 60 mm per hour south of the eye. The storm is expected to slowly strengthen through late Saturday and peak at 110 mph on August 29.
Researchers have made strides in understanding inner-core processes and environmental factors that affect a hurricane's path and intensity. NASA satellites, computer modeling, instruments, aircraft, and field missions provide valuable information to help scientists better understand these storms.
NASA's Aqua satellite and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite tracked Typhoon Goni as it affected the Philippines. The satellites provided detailed insights into the typhoon's inner eye wall, showing intense rainfall rates of over 88 inches in extreme areas.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captured the final stages of Tropical Depression 11E as it weakened and degenerated into a remnant low pressure area. The post-tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph.
A new method developed by McGill University professor Shaun Lovejoy could significantly improve atmospheric forecasting accuracy, particularly over long periods. By leveraging the atmosphere's long-term memory, Lovejoy's approach shows promise in explaining the 'pause' in global warming since 1998.
Researchers found that stronger winds forecasted by climate change could exacerbate the time females take to find food compared to males, affecting their wellbeing and potentially population sizes. This study on UK coastal seabirds highlights the impact of wind conditions on bird behavior.
Tropical Depression 16W was born in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean when NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image on August 14. The depression had maximum sustained winds near 30 knots and was moving west at 5.7 mph, heading towards the Northern Marianas.
Tropical Depression 17W was born in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on August 14, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing its formation. The depression is currently drifting north at 6 mph and is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm over the next few days.
A new study projects an increase in deaths and emergency visits in Rhode Island due to rising summer temperatures. Even mild temperatures above 75 degrees are associated with a noticeable increase in medical distress among state residents.
A new study finds that forecasters are perceived as more confident and trustworthy when predicting high probabilities, leading to more accurate judgments about the prediction. This has practical implications for information outlets, with consumers preferring higher predictions from news programs and websites.
Hurricane Hilda's strongest winds were detected by NASA's RapidScat instrument on the storm's northern side, reaching speeds of 73 mph. The center of the hurricane is expected to bring heavy rain, life-threatening flash floods, and large ocean swells to Hawaiian Islands over the next few days.
NASA's Terra satellite captured a cloud-free image of Hurricane Hilda's eye on August 8, showing strong thunderstorms circling the center. The storm is expected to cause rough surf along east and southeast facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
Researchers at PNNL developed a new forecasting tool that can accurately predict electricity needs, reducing errors and costs. The Power Model Integrator uses an ensemble of models to adaptively combine strengths and address various scenarios, improving accuracy by up to 50%.
Tropical Storm Guillermo is forecasted to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Hawaiian Islands. NASA's Terra satellite and RapidScat instrument provided critical data on the storm's wind patterns, revealing strongest winds on the northern and eastern sides.