Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
The new Transregional Collaborative Research Center 'Waves to Weather' aims to improve forecast models by analyzing ensemble forecasts and studying predictability. Scientists will investigate the physical processes and interactions behind severe weather events, with the goal of developing new models and methods to extend forecast range.
Extra-Tropical Storm Kate rapidly intensified off the US East Coast, producing hurricane-force winds before transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. As it moves northeast, Kate's winds are expected to weaken over the next few days, eventually being absorbed by another low-pressure system.
Researchers at RIKEN Advanced Institute for Computational Science in Japan ran an enormous global weather simulation with 10,240 simulations of a model of the global atmosphere. They found that faraway observations can impact the eventual state of the weather forecast, which could lead to more accurate forecasts.
A computer model developed by University of Hawaii researchers can accurately forecast the movement of vog around the state, posing a serious threat to health and ecosystems. The model uses sulfur dioxide emissions and wind predictions to provide near-real-time forecasts.
A study published in Weather found that fireworks on Guy Fawkes' night can reduce visibility by an average of 25% due to the release of hygroscopic particulate matter. This effect is exacerbated when relative humidity is high, posing significant safety risks for motorist and pedestrian safety.
A new study combines data from various sources to create more accurate flu forecasts. The ensemble models outperform traditional methods, including Google Flu Trends, and provide near-perfect correlation with CDC reports. Researchers hope to expand the model's capabilities to track other diseases.
A research team developed predictive models of flu-like activity combining data from Google, Twitter, EHRs, and crowd-sourced flu data. Ensemble modeling outperforms individual data sources and rivals CDC's retrospective reporting accuracy.
Using historical intensity data from Japan, researchers found that uniform and randomized versions of earthquake hazard maps outperform published maps in predicting shaking. The study aims to provide a more accurate understanding of how these maps work and their limitations.
NASA's RapidScat instrument captured windy conditions in the Mid-Atlantic region, fueled by remnant moisture from Hurricane Patricia and Gulf of Mexico moisture. The National Weather Service predicted widespread rainfall across the eastern third of the US, with heaviest amounts expected along the I-95 corridor.
The Global Precipitation Measurement mission tracked rainfall within Storm Olaf, revealing high storm tops and sparse rain on the western side. The post-tropical cyclone weakened over cooler waters, eventually dissipating by October 28, 2015.
RapidScat data revealed strong winds in the remnants of Typhoon Champi near Alaska, with wind speeds reaching up to 80.5 mph/129.6 kph. The storm's effects brought rain, gusty winds, and warmer than normal temperatures to the region.
A team of scientists from the National Oceanography Centre are on a six-week expedition to the Bahamas to update and acquire data from ocean instruments. This data helps make long-term forecasts of weather and climate by feeding it into models of the ocean and atmosphere.
Tropical Storm Champi was over Guam and the Marianas Islands when NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of the storm. The Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument showed strongest thunderstorms in its western quadrant and over Guam.
Tropical Storm Champi affects the Northwestern Pacific Ocean with strongest thunderstorms east-southeast of its low-level center. The storm is about 218 nautical miles northeast of Saipan, moving west at 16 knots, with maximum sustained winds near 50 knots.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite spotted the 25th tropical depression in the northwestern Pacific Ocean on October 13. The depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm and pass near Guam by October 16.
Researchers at the University of Reading and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts found that accounting for unusual winds miles up in the stratosphere can make long-range winter weather forecasts twice as accurate. This allows forecasters to predict extreme winter weather events up to four weeks before they occur, providi...
Tropical Storm Oho weakened over cool waters and transitioned into an extra-tropical cyclone with strong wind shear, affecting its path. The storm moved over very cool waters near 22 Celsius, which is below the minimum temperature required to maintain intensity.
Hurricane Joaquin's infrared data revealed the storm was transitioning to a post-tropical cyclone due to weaker storms and less uplift in the air. The system lacked sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone.
Typhoon Dujuan made landfall in southeastern China on September 29, with maximum sustained winds of 75 knots (86 mph). The storm is forecast to weaken quickly as it moves northward ahead of an approaching area of low pressure.
Tropical Storm Joaquin formed in the western Atlantic on September 28, fueled by rain rates of up to 60 mm/hr. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next two days as it moves northward ahead of an upper-level trough.
Tropical Depression 11 strengthened into Tropical Storm Joaquin despite experiencing vertical wind shear, according to NASA's Aqua satellite data. The storm's elongated shape is attributed to the strong winds, but research suggests that high-level storms can generate heavy rain and strengthen.
Tropical Storm Marty is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds along the Mexican west coast, posing a threat of flooding and mudslides. The storm's maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph, with higher gusts and estimated central pressure at 990 millibars.
Typhoon Dujuan approached Taiwan with sustained winds near 100 mph and cloud top temperatures of -81F, generating heavy rainfall. NASA satellites provided detailed data on the storm's clouds and winds, helping forecasters track its movement and expected landfall in southeastern China.
Typhoon Dujuan's large eye was visible from space after strengthening into a typhoon. The storm's eye is about 25 nautical miles wide and is expected to track just north of Ishigakijima Island, Japan on September 27.
The Desert Research Institute's new WINDS platform provides actionable insight for businesses, utilities, and municipalities impacted by extreme weather. With improved weather forecast data and sensor networks, the platform translates data into decision-making support frameworks.
Tropical Storm Krovanh has a 'comma shape' with thunderstorms stretching over the northern Marianas Islands. Maximum sustained winds near 55 knots are expected to reach 115 knots on Sept 18 before turning northeast, becoming extra-tropical.
NASA's Aqua satellite captures powerful thunderstorms and cloud top temperatures around -63F/-53C in Tropical Depression 20W, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm is expected to strengthen and potentially affect the Northern Marianas Islands and Japan by September 19.
Researchers at University of Toronto develop model predicting tornado activity relative to changes in atmospheric conditions. The model takes into account instability and vertical windshear, shedding light on why actual tornado activity is vastly underestimated.
Tropical Storm Kevin strengthened due to rapidly increasing surface winds observed by NASA's RapidScat, now at maximum sustained speeds of near 40 mph. Forecasters expect minimal change in strength over the next day or so.
Hurricane Jimena is classified as a category 4 storm with maximum sustained winds near 130 mph. The Global Precipitation Measurement satellite detected a double eye-wall structure with evidence of erosion, indicating decay and weakening of the storm's inner eyewall.
Researchers at CU-Boulder have developed a new technique for estimating sea ice concentration, improving US Navy forecasts by almost 40%. The blended input approach combines satellite data and human interpretation to capture smaller patches of sea ice, enhancing forecast accuracy.
Heavy rainfall from Hurricane Ignacio was measured by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite on August 27, with rates reaching over 60 mm per hour south of the eye. The storm is expected to slowly strengthen through late Saturday and peak at 110 mph on August 29.
Tropical Storm Erika was centered in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, affecting Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. The storm produced total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
NASA's Aqua satellite and Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) core satellite tracked Typhoon Goni as it affected the Philippines. The satellites provided detailed insights into the typhoon's inner eye wall, showing intense rainfall rates of over 88 inches in extreme areas.
Researchers have made strides in understanding inner-core processes and environmental factors that affect a hurricane's path and intensity. NASA satellites, computer modeling, instruments, aircraft, and field missions provide valuable information to help scientists better understand these storms.
A new method developed by McGill University professor Shaun Lovejoy could significantly improve atmospheric forecasting accuracy, particularly over long periods. By leveraging the atmosphere's long-term memory, Lovejoy's approach shows promise in explaining the 'pause' in global warming since 1998.
Researchers found that stronger winds forecasted by climate change could exacerbate the time females take to find food compared to males, affecting their wellbeing and potentially population sizes. This study on UK coastal seabirds highlights the impact of wind conditions on bird behavior.
NASA's GOES-West satellite captured the final stages of Tropical Depression 11E as it weakened and degenerated into a remnant low pressure area. The post-tropical cyclone's maximum sustained winds were near 30 mph.
Tropical Depression 16W was born in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean when NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image on August 14. The depression had maximum sustained winds near 30 knots and was moving west at 5.7 mph, heading towards the Northern Marianas.
Tropical Depression 17W was born in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on August 14, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing its formation. The depression is currently drifting north at 6 mph and is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm over the next few days.
A new study projects an increase in deaths and emergency visits in Rhode Island due to rising summer temperatures. Even mild temperatures above 75 degrees are associated with a noticeable increase in medical distress among state residents.
A new study finds that forecasters are perceived as more confident and trustworthy when predicting high probabilities, leading to more accurate judgments about the prediction. This has practical implications for information outlets, with consumers preferring higher predictions from news programs and websites.
Hurricane Hilda's strongest winds were detected by NASA's RapidScat instrument on the storm's northern side, reaching speeds of 73 mph. The center of the hurricane is expected to bring heavy rain, life-threatening flash floods, and large ocean swells to Hawaiian Islands over the next few days.
NASA's Terra satellite captured a cloud-free image of Hurricane Hilda's eye on August 8, showing strong thunderstorms circling the center. The storm is expected to cause rough surf along east and southeast facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next couple of days.
Researchers at PNNL developed a new forecasting tool that can accurately predict electricity needs, reducing errors and costs. The Power Model Integrator uses an ensemble of models to adaptively combine strengths and address various scenarios, improving accuracy by up to 50%.
Tropical Storm Guillermo is forecasted to bring strong winds and heavy rainfall to the Hawaiian Islands. NASA's Terra satellite and RapidScat instrument provided critical data on the storm's wind patterns, revealing strongest winds on the northern and eastern sides.
Super Typhoon Soudelor has reached Category 5 status on the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale, with sustained winds of near 155mph and a 12-nautical-mile-wide eye. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts the storm to maintain its intensity for another 24 hours.
Researchers at Columbia University's Mailman School developed a computer model that can predict flu outbreaks in subtropical climates like Hong Kong with high accuracy. The system forecasted peak timing and magnitude for 44 epidemics caused by specific influenza strains, including seasonal and pandemic outbreaks.
Typhoon Halola's strongest typhoon-force winds were located on the northern half of the storm, stretching from northwest to northeast. The storm intensified and peaked at 95 knots on July 24, with Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts predicting weakening after that.
A new study published in Nature Geoscience reveals that latent heat release in ascending air masses plays a crucial role in the formation and perpetuation of stable high-pressure systems, also known as 'blocking', which can lead to extreme weather conditions. The research team analyzed massive amounts of climate data from around the wo...
Tropical Storm Nangka caused the evacuation of over 200,000 people in Japan and is moving towards the Sea of Japan. The storm's wind speed decreased to 40 mph as it moved northeastward, with forecasters predicting its dissipation in a day or two.
Typhoon Nangka's ragged eye was captured by NASA's Terra satellite on July 15, revealing a 15-nautical-mile-wide storm surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The typhoon is expected to make landfall in southern Japan, bringing strong winds and heavy rain.
Typhoon Nangka's strongest typhoon-force winds were located on the northern half of the storm, with speeds up to 129 kph. The storm is moving north and forecast to peak at 115 mph before weakening and making landfall in western Japan.
A post-tropical depression has formed in the Central Pacific Ocean, located northeast of Hawaii. Swells from the system are expected to cause high surf along east-facing shores of the main Hawaiian Islands over the next several days.
Researchers predict a severe harmful algal bloom in western Lake Erie, with expected severity index of 8.7, posing risks to swimmers, boaters, and drinking water supply. The bloom will develop from west to east and peak in September, with local weather conditions influencing its impact.
Typhoon Chan-Hom's maximum sustained winds were near 100 knots (115.1 mph/185.2 kph) on July 9, with powerful bands of thunderstorms spiraling into its center. The storm is forecast to continue heading for southeastern China and make landfall in the areas of Zhejiang and Fujian by July 10-11.
Typhoon Chan-Hom strengthened over three days, peaking as a Category 4 typhoon with maximum sustained winds nearing 130 knots. The storm is forecast to pass between Ishigakjima and Kadena islands on July 9 before making landfall in eastern China.
Two University of Oklahoma doctoral students have developed a technique to forecast the orientation behavior of birds as they migrate through the atmosphere at night using the nation's weather radar network. The approach has discovered broad-scale flight orientation of nocturnal migrant birds, offering a promising development for biolo...
The National Weather Service is launching new graphics to communicate forecast information more clearly, based on research by a team at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The new icons feature split images and color-coded boxes to convey the existence, timing, and potential severity of upcoming weather threats.
The Chesapeake Bay's hypoxic and anoxic zones are caused by excessive nutrient pollution, primarily from human activities. Scientists predict a smaller 'dead zone' this summer, with midsummer volume expected to be approximately 1.37 cubic miles.