Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Researchers develop technique to efficiently calculate mutual information between nodes in probabilistic graphical models, allowing for targeted data collection and reducing computational time. By leveraging Gaussian distributions, the algorithm can assess data usefulness before it becomes available.
Researchers successfully ran 10,240 parallel simulations of global weather using Japan's K computer, achieving a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy. The study found that faraway observations can have an immediate impact on weather forecasts, highlighting the need for advanced methods to utilize this data.
Tropical Storm 09W strengthened into a tropical storm on July 11, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing visible images of the storm's strong thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has issued warnings for Guam and surrounding waters as the storm is expected to bring increased winds over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Fausto has degenerated into a remnant area of low pressure, with forecasters attributing its weakening to vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air. The remnants are expected to dissipate as they move through an area of increasing wind shear.
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory followed Hurricane Arthur through its full life cycle, providing the first time a precipitation-measuring satellite has been able to capture its structures. GPM data showed Arthur's asymmetrical shape with spiral arms on the eastern side but not on the western side.
Tropical Storm Douglas is on a weakening trend, with decreasing thunderstorm activity and warming cloud tops. The storm's low-level circulation and shallow eye-like feature persist despite the waning uplift of air.
A team of OU students created Storm Evader, an iPad app teaching elementary and middle school students about weather patterns by navigating a plane during severe weather events. The app encourages problem-solving and research-based decision-making, appealing to both kids and adults.
A new NASA satellite animation reveals Hurricane Amanda's rapid weakening from May 28 to May 30. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation center became harder to identify, indicating its demise.
A new Arizona State University study examines the impact of urbanization on heat-related mortality in Maricopa County. The research found that projections of heat-related mortality range from a decrease of 46 deaths per year to an increase of 339 deaths per year, with nighttime temperatures being a significant concern.
Amanda strengthened into a tropical storm on May 23 with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is expected to remain in weak steering flow and maintain its current trajectory.
The Skunk Fire, sparked by a lightning strike on April 19, continues to burn across Arizona. The fire has reached 44% containment and is forecasted to be fully contained by May 23. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicts hot temperatures and strong southwest winds.
The Skunk Fire in Arizona has grown to over 10,000 acres, driven by extremely dry fuels and low relative humidity. The fire is currently 20% contained and continues to spread to the north, with conditions making it difficult for firefighters to access the area.
A study by Purdue University professor Jeff Trapp found that tornado outbreaks lasting three or more days are more likely to occur, with a 74% probability of an outbreak during such periods. The Enhanced Fujita scale indicates stronger tornadoes were also more likely to hit during these extended periods.
A NASA satellite observed higher and colder cloud top temperatures in a severe weather system, indicating strong uplift and potential for stronger storms. The temperature data revealed that the storm system moved east and generated more tornadoes on April 29.
NASA's GOES-East satellite captured visible and infrared data on a storm system that spawned tornadoes affecting seven central and southern U.S. states. The animation shows the development and movement of the storm system, revealing powerful storms and high-altitude cloud tops.
A NASA simulation shows that stratospheric ozone intrusions have a significant impact on ground-level ozone concentrations in the US West, with effects two to three times greater than previously estimated. High-resolution models can now comprehensively examine these events for the first time.
Tropical Depression 05W is mostly cloud-covered with strongest convection on its western side. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by April 5 as it moves northwesterly through warm ocean waters.
A study analyzing 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts found that predictions are accurate when conditions follow the observed downward trend, but less so when they deviate from it. Improving forecasting by incorporating sea ice thickness and concentration data may enhance seasonal predictions.
NASA's Earth-observing satellites provide detailed images of flood-affected areas, enabling better mapping of flood extent and risk assessment. The agency's new missions, such as GPM and SMAP, will further enhance flood monitoring and forecasting by providing unprecedented data on precipitation rates and soil moisture.
A new GPS system on commercial aircraft captures detailed meteorological readings to improve weather models and hurricane forecasts. This technology has the potential to save lives and provide more accurate predictions.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Tropical Cyclone Lusi, revealing it had become a cold-core system with strongest winds spreading out. The storm is expected to bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to Northern New Zealand, particularly around North Cape.
Tropical Cyclone Lusi intensified to hurricane force near Vanuatu, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, and potential flooding. The storm is expected to weaken on March 13 before transitioning into an extra-tropical storm.
Tropical Cyclone 16P formed near Fiji, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to the region. The cyclone was centered about 170 nautical miles northeast of Suva, Fiji, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots.
Researchers at Penn State used a real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system to accurately predict Hurricane Sandy's path, intensity, and rainfall. The system compared favorably to operational global models, showcasing its potential for improving storm prediction.
Yiqi Luo, a University of Oklahoma professor, has been named an AAAS Fellow for his work on data assimilation and ecological forecasting. His research aims to predict ecosystem changes in response to environmental shifts, which could inform global responses to climate change.
A new radar network offering higher resolution data and earlier warning of severe weather has been installed in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The system provides finer resolution and improved data on rainfall amounts, wind shear, and tornado signatures within storms.
The University of Oklahoma's new radar system, part of the Dallas-Fort Worth Urban Demonstration Network, aims to improve severe weather warning operations. The network will use data from local, state, and federal agencies, as well as private sector sources, to provide real-time analysis and forecasts.
UI researchers assessed global numerical weather prediction models' performance in predicting severe flooding in Boulder, Colo. in September 2013. The study found that while models generally performed well, there is room for improvement in capturing persistent rainfall and accurately forecasting flood events.
Tropical Cyclone 11P is a newly developed storm moving toward a landfall in Queensland, Australia, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots. The JTWC expects the cyclone to strengthen before making landfall around January 31.
System 99P is showing signs of organization, with high cloud tops and potential for heavy rainfall. NASA predicts it will become a tropical depression over the next day as it tracks towards Willis Island in Australia.
NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites continue to monitor the movement of System 94S, a stubborn tropical low pressure area affecting Western Australia. The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, including flash flooding, to parts of the region.
A new study of vast weather data reveals hundreds of smaller storms that had previously escaped detection, increasing the number of Arctic cyclones by 40% to around 1,900 per year. This finding is important for understanding current weather patterns and potential climate change in the future.
The new website provides weekly predictions for US seasonal flu rates in 94 cities, based on a scientifically validated system. Flu cases are forecast to peak in January, with some areas already experiencing the worst of the outbreak.
Researchers created image-based mobile phone alerts connected to the Weather Research and Forecasting system to track Cyclone Phailin's progression. This alert system has the potential to save lives and property in India, reaching an estimated 97% of the population.
The Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI) is a new telescope that will observe the sun in extreme ultraviolet wavelengths, identifying active regions, solar flares, and eruptions. This will improve space weather forecasting, enabling earlier warnings for potential impacts on Earth's power grids, communication systems, and orbiting satellites.
Tropical Cyclone 06B, also known as Madi, has organized from low pressure System 92B, with maximum sustained winds near 45 knots/51.7 mph/83.3 kph and a diameter of approximately 100 nautical miles. The cyclone is expected to continue strengthening due to warm waters and is predicted to reach cyclone/hurricane strength by December 9.
The 33rd tropical depression formed in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on December 3, 2013. NASA's satellites captured images of the storm's cloud cover and rainfall rates, showing moderate to heavy rainfall north of the center of circulation.
Scientists successfully predicted the timing of the 2012-2013 influenza season up to nine weeks in advance, providing actionable information for officials and the public. The flu forecasting system, using combined data from Google Flu Trends and CDC reports, outperformed alternate schemes and showed regional differences in accuracy.
The Space Environment In-Situ Suite (SEISS) instrument on GOES-R will monitor radiation hazards to astronauts and satellites. SEISS data will improve energetic particle forecasts and enhance warning systems for space weather events.
Tropical Cyclone Alessia has formed in the Southern Indian Ocean and is expected to threaten Western Australia. The cyclone's maximum sustained winds are near 35 knots, and it is currently moving east-southeast towards Darwin.
Researchers developed a new statistical model to forecast summer rainfall in the Southeast, identifying key climate factors that influence rainfall intensity. The three-cluster finite normal mixture model improves accuracy for seasonal predictions.
Researchers create a new computer model that combines cutting-edge simulations of weather and fire with satellite observations to predict the extent and behavior of wildfires. The technique, called CAWFE, allows for updated forecasts every 12 hours, enabling accurate predictions throughout a fire's lifetime.
Researchers at NCAR and University of Maryland create a new model that combines weather simulations with satellite observations to predict wildfire growth. The model can produce accurate forecasts every 12 hours, improving prediction tools for large, intense wildfires.
Typhoon Haiyan is intensifying quickly as it moves through the Philippine Sea, with rainfall rates reaching up to 50-60 mm/hour near the center. NASA's TRMM satellite provided data on the storm's northeastern quadrant, revealing some thunderstorms reached heights of over 10 km.
The ABI will offer faster imaging with much higher detail, enabling more accurate forecasts of severe weather and other hazards. The instrument's improved capabilities will help save lives and protect communities from extreme weather events.
Researchers at NCAR have fingerprinted a distinctive atmospheric wave pattern that can foreshadow the emergence of summertime heat waves in the United States. By analyzing a 12,000-year simulation of the atmosphere, they found that this pattern is associated with an increased likelihood of US heat waves 15-20 days out.
Tropical Storm Lorenzo is facing wind shear and will move into cooler waters, sapping its strength. The NHC notes that despite wind shear, Lorenzo maintains deep convection with strongest thunderstorms in its eastern quadrant.
Typhoon Francisco is turning northwest, posing a threat to Guam with sustained tropical storm force winds expected, causing minor damage to poorly constructed homes and isolated power outages. The storm has maximum sustained winds near 85 knots and is located southwest of Guam.
A University of Missouri study found that warmer Pacific Ocean surface temperatures are linked to a 20.3% increase in EF-2 to EF-5 tornados, which tend to occur west and north of tornado alley.
Two UK-funded projects will monitor crucial ocean currents in the North Atlantic, improving long-term climate predictions and weather forecasts. The first project, OSNAP, will run for five years, with funding of around £20m, while the second project, RAPID, will continue to monitor the strength of the global conveyor belt until 2018.
A fleet of underwater robots, known as gliders, is being deployed by NOAA and partners to collect ocean data off the East Coast. The gliders will help scientists improve storm intensity forecasts and understanding of hurricanes.
The CYGNSS hurricane satellite mission has passed NASA's Systems Requirements Review and Key Decision Point-B, moving into the next phase of development. The constellation of eight microsatellites will use GPS signals to measure ocean surface properties and determine how hurricanes form and strengthen.
A recent MIT study found that high-energy electron activity in space may contribute to failures in geostationary satellites. The research team analyzed data from eight satellites and found that most failures occurred during declining phases of the solar cycle, particularly when Kp index was three or less.
Typhoon Man-yi made landfall in southern Japan and quickly crossed the big island, dropping heavy rainfall and causing deadly mudslides. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecast track predicts Man-yi will head northeast into the Sea of Okhotsk by Sept. 17.
Data from NASA's Global Hawk aircraft assisted forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in analyzing Tropical Storm Gabrielle. The system showed a tilted structure with southerly to southwesterly vertical shear, and dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.
Researchers have developed a new tool that can predict fish habitat conditions six months in advance. The JISAO Seasonal Coastal Ocean Prediction of the Ecosystem (J-SCOPE) uses global climate models and regional coastal ocean simulations to forecast ocean temperatures, oxygen levels, and phytoplankton blooms.
A series of devastating wildfires has swept through Idaho, with multiple fires burning out of control due to strong winds and hot temperatures. The largest fire, the Beaver Creek Fire, has grown to over 100,000 acres and threatens nearby towns and ski resorts.
Tropical Storm Pewa has formed in the central Pacific, according to NASA's satellite imagery. System 90C, located about 775 miles south-southwest of Kauai, Hawaii, has a medium chance (30%) of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours.
The successful deployment of the GOES-R satellite's magnetometer boom will enhance space weather forecasting, predicting geomagnetic storms with greater accuracy. This technology improvement supports better protection of property, public safety, and economic development.
A new study from NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center found that climate data can predict crop failures several months before harvest. The team developed a crop model incorporating temperature and precipitation forecasts, which accurately predicted crop yield or failure for about 20% of global cropland.