Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Scientists analyzed gravitational effects of the Moon on thermosphere to predict satellite collisions. Incorporating these results in atmospheric models can refine accuracy and keep satellites separate from space junk.
A team from Los Alamos National Laboratory successfully monitored and forecasted influenza, dengue fever, and tuberculosis outbreaks worldwide. The study demonstrates the potential of using public health data to build an operational disease monitoring system.
Tropical Cyclone 05B is forecast to make landfall in eastern India on November 9. The storm was tracked by NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite, which captured a visible image of the cyclone off India's coast.
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar weakened and was pushed northeast by strong southwesterly wind shear, resulting in the demise of the storm. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer aboard NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image on October 31 showing the remnants of the cyclone's clouds and showers being pushed away from its center.
Tropical Cyclone Nilofar is being affected by strong southwesterly wind shear, causing clouds to be pushed away from its center. The storm is currently moving through the Arabian Sea with maximum sustained winds near 90 knots.
Cyclone Nilofar developed a massive 14-mile-wide eye that stared at NASA's Terra satellite on Oct. 28. The storm is forecast to make landfall in northwestern India, bringing heavy rains and strong winds.
Tropical Storm Vongfong continues to weaken as it approaches Japan, with NASA satellite data showing significant impact from westerly wind shear. The storm's structure is being affected by the strong winds, causing most of the clouds and showers to be pushed to the east.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP and Aqua satellites monitored Typhoon Vongfong's weakening, showing strongest thunderstorms in the northern quadrant. The storm is now forecasted to spread out and become an extra-tropical storm, tracking over Japan's islands.
Tropical Cyclone Hudhud is expected to intensify and peak around 100 knots before landfall near Visakhapatnam late on Oct. 12, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. The cyclone has tracked northwestward at 6 knots and is centered about 250 nautical miles southeast of the coast.
The new instrument will improve severe storm warning accuracy, detect lightning ground strike hazards, and provide early warnings for heavy rainfall and flash flooding. It will also enhance storm monitoring during radar outages or in areas with poor coverage.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured visible and infrared images of Super Typhoon Vongfong, revealing a Category 4 storm with two concentric eyewalls. The typhoon is expected to weaken slowly over several days, affecting Japan's islands.
Tropical Storm Phanfone shows fragmented bands of thunderstorms, with light to moderate rainfall and isolated heavy rain areas. NASA's TRMM satellite provides details on the storm's movement, intensity, and projected path.
Phanfone is now a threat to various islands, with warnings and watches in effect for Saipan, Tinian, Pagan, and Alamagan. The storm is moving west-northwest at 11 knots, with forecasters expecting it to intensify into a typhoon after passing through the Marianas Islands.
Tropical Depression Kammuri intensified on Sept. 24, with strong thunderstorms covering a long area within its elongated circulation. The storm's cloud-top temperatures reached -63F/-53C, potentially generating heavy rain.
Tropical Storm Odile continues to affect the US Southwest, bringing heavy rainfall and flash flood watches. The storm is predicted to weaken and potentially become a tropical depression by early Wednesday.
A new statistical model complements hurricane forecasting by showing the size of storms, not just wind speed. This metric allows forecasters to better assess the risk of hurricanes that make landfall.
Tropical Storm Kalmaegi intensified as NASA's Aqua satellite captured its visible image approaching the Philippines. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next couple of days and potentially become a typhoon by September 13.
Tropical Depression 16E is forecasted to dissipate and be absorbed by Tropical Storm Odile due to unfavorable influence of the larger storm. The depression is currently drifting northwest at 2 mph and will eventually turn east-southeast as it gets caught up in Odile's circulation.
A new study by University of Vermont scientists predicts increased precipitation and temperature in the Lake Champlain region, leading to more extreme weather events and potential flooding. The forecast suggests a rise in average temperatures by mid-century, with some ski resorts experiencing a 50% decline in annual snowfall.
Tropical Storm Fengshen is transitioning into an extra-tropical storm, with its clouds and winds extending northeast of the center. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicts it will move east-northeasterly over open waters for several days.
Hurricane Norbert's visible bands of thunderstorms spiraled into the center in NASA satellite imagery on September 4, but lost some organization due to easterly vertical wind shear. The hurricane is forecast to track parallel along the coast of Baja California for the next couple of days.
Typhoon Halong has reopened its eye after going through eyewall replacement, a sign of weakening winds. The storm is still powerful, with maximum sustained winds of 85 knots and rough seas.
Researchers develop technique to efficiently calculate mutual information between nodes in probabilistic graphical models, allowing for targeted data collection and reducing computational time. By leveraging Gaussian distributions, the algorithm can assess data usefulness before it becomes available.
Researchers successfully ran 10,240 parallel simulations of global weather using Japan's K computer, achieving a significant improvement in forecasting accuracy. The study found that faraway observations can have an immediate impact on weather forecasts, highlighting the need for advanced methods to utilize this data.
Tropical Storm 09W strengthened into a tropical storm on July 11, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing visible images of the storm's strong thunderstorms. The National Weather Service has issued warnings for Guam and surrounding waters as the storm is expected to bring increased winds over the weekend.
Tropical Storm Fausto has degenerated into a remnant area of low pressure, with forecasters attributing its weakening to vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air. The remnants are expected to dissipate as they move through an area of increasing wind shear.
The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Core Observatory followed Hurricane Arthur through its full life cycle, providing the first time a precipitation-measuring satellite has been able to capture its structures. GPM data showed Arthur's asymmetrical shape with spiral arms on the eastern side but not on the western side.
Tropical Storm Douglas is on a weakening trend, with decreasing thunderstorm activity and warming cloud tops. The storm's low-level circulation and shallow eye-like feature persist despite the waning uplift of air.
A team of OU students created Storm Evader, an iPad app teaching elementary and middle school students about weather patterns by navigating a plane during severe weather events. The app encourages problem-solving and research-based decision-making, appealing to both kids and adults.
A new Arizona State University study examines the impact of urbanization on heat-related mortality in Maricopa County. The research found that projections of heat-related mortality range from a decrease of 46 deaths per year to an increase of 339 deaths per year, with nighttime temperatures being a significant concern.
A new NASA satellite animation reveals Hurricane Amanda's rapid weakening from May 28 to May 30. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation center became harder to identify, indicating its demise.
Amanda strengthened into a tropical storm on May 23 with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph. The storm is expected to remain in weak steering flow and maintain its current trajectory.
The Skunk Fire, sparked by a lightning strike on April 19, continues to burn across Arizona. The fire has reached 44% containment and is forecasted to be fully contained by May 23. Meanwhile, the National Weather Service predicts hot temperatures and strong southwest winds.
The Skunk Fire in Arizona has grown to over 10,000 acres, driven by extremely dry fuels and low relative humidity. The fire is currently 20% contained and continues to spread to the north, with conditions making it difficult for firefighters to access the area.
A study by Purdue University professor Jeff Trapp found that tornado outbreaks lasting three or more days are more likely to occur, with a 74% probability of an outbreak during such periods. The Enhanced Fujita scale indicates stronger tornadoes were also more likely to hit during these extended periods.
A NASA satellite observed higher and colder cloud top temperatures in a severe weather system, indicating strong uplift and potential for stronger storms. The temperature data revealed that the storm system moved east and generated more tornadoes on April 29.
NASA's GOES-East satellite captured visible and infrared data on a storm system that spawned tornadoes affecting seven central and southern U.S. states. The animation shows the development and movement of the storm system, revealing powerful storms and high-altitude cloud tops.
A NASA simulation shows that stratospheric ozone intrusions have a significant impact on ground-level ozone concentrations in the US West, with effects two to three times greater than previously estimated. High-resolution models can now comprehensively examine these events for the first time.
Tropical Depression 05W is mostly cloud-covered with strongest convection on its western side. The depression is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm by April 5 as it moves northwesterly through warm ocean waters.
A study analyzing 300 summer Arctic sea ice forecasts found that predictions are accurate when conditions follow the observed downward trend, but less so when they deviate from it. Improving forecasting by incorporating sea ice thickness and concentration data may enhance seasonal predictions.
NASA's Earth-observing satellites provide detailed images of flood-affected areas, enabling better mapping of flood extent and risk assessment. The agency's new missions, such as GPM and SMAP, will further enhance flood monitoring and forecasting by providing unprecedented data on precipitation rates and soil moisture.
A new GPS system on commercial aircraft captures detailed meteorological readings to improve weather models and hurricane forecasts. This technology has the potential to save lives and provide more accurate predictions.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data on Tropical Cyclone Lusi, revealing it had become a cold-core system with strongest winds spreading out. The storm is expected to bring gale-force winds and heavy rain to Northern New Zealand, particularly around North Cape.
Tropical Cyclone Lusi intensified to hurricane force near Vanuatu, bringing heavy rain, thunderstorms, and potential flooding. The storm is expected to weaken on March 13 before transitioning into an extra-tropical storm.
Tropical Cyclone 16P formed near Fiji, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to the region. The cyclone was centered about 170 nautical miles northeast of Suva, Fiji, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots.
Researchers at Penn State used a real-time convection-permitting hurricane analysis and forecasting system to accurately predict Hurricane Sandy's path, intensity, and rainfall. The system compared favorably to operational global models, showcasing its potential for improving storm prediction.
Yiqi Luo, a University of Oklahoma professor, has been named an AAAS Fellow for his work on data assimilation and ecological forecasting. His research aims to predict ecosystem changes in response to environmental shifts, which could inform global responses to climate change.
The University of Oklahoma's new radar system, part of the Dallas-Fort Worth Urban Demonstration Network, aims to improve severe weather warning operations. The network will use data from local, state, and federal agencies, as well as private sector sources, to provide real-time analysis and forecasts.
A new radar network offering higher resolution data and earlier warning of severe weather has been installed in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex. The system provides finer resolution and improved data on rainfall amounts, wind shear, and tornado signatures within storms.
UI researchers assessed global numerical weather prediction models' performance in predicting severe flooding in Boulder, Colo. in September 2013. The study found that while models generally performed well, there is room for improvement in capturing persistent rainfall and accurately forecasting flood events.
Tropical Cyclone 11P is a newly developed storm moving toward a landfall in Queensland, Australia, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots. The JTWC expects the cyclone to strengthen before making landfall around January 31.
System 99P is showing signs of organization, with high cloud tops and potential for heavy rainfall. NASA predicts it will become a tropical depression over the next day as it tracks towards Willis Island in Australia.
NASA's Terra and Aqua satellites continue to monitor the movement of System 94S, a stubborn tropical low pressure area affecting Western Australia. The system is expected to bring heavy rainfall, including flash flooding, to parts of the region.
A new study of vast weather data reveals hundreds of smaller storms that had previously escaped detection, increasing the number of Arctic cyclones by 40% to around 1,900 per year. This finding is important for understanding current weather patterns and potential climate change in the future.
The new website provides weekly predictions for US seasonal flu rates in 94 cities, based on a scientifically validated system. Flu cases are forecast to peak in January, with some areas already experiencing the worst of the outbreak.
Researchers created image-based mobile phone alerts connected to the Weather Research and Forecasting system to track Cyclone Phailin's progression. This alert system has the potential to save lives and property in India, reaching an estimated 97% of the population.
The Solar Ultra-Violet Imager (SUVI) is a new telescope that will observe the sun in extreme ultraviolet wavelengths, identifying active regions, solar flares, and eruptions. This will improve space weather forecasting, enabling earlier warnings for potential impacts on Earth's power grids, communication systems, and orbiting satellites.
Tropical Cyclone 06B, also known as Madi, has organized from low pressure System 92B, with maximum sustained winds near 45 knots/51.7 mph/83.3 kph and a diameter of approximately 100 nautical miles. The cyclone is expected to continue strengthening due to warm waters and is predicted to reach cyclone/hurricane strength by December 9.
The 33rd tropical depression formed in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean on December 3, 2013. NASA's satellites captured images of the storm's cloud cover and rainfall rates, showing moderate to heavy rainfall north of the center of circulation.
Scientists successfully predicted the timing of the 2012-2013 influenza season up to nine weeks in advance, providing actionable information for officials and the public. The flu forecasting system, using combined data from Google Flu Trends and CDC reports, outperformed alternate schemes and showed regional differences in accuracy.