Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Researchers confirm a long-hypothesized limit for weather prediction, first proposed in the 1960s, which is approximately two weeks on average. They used state-of-the-art models to test this limit and found that reliable forecasts are now possible nine to 10 days out in mid-latitudes.
Tropical Cyclone 23S has developed north of the Kimberley coast and generated warnings in Western Australia. The cyclone is expected to move west-southwest while intensifying over the next four days, with a slight risk that it could approach the west Pilbara coast.
Tropical Cyclone Joaninha maintained its eye with visible thunderstorms surrounding it, with maximum sustained winds near 110 knots. The cyclone is forecast to weaken and transition into a subtropical cyclone over the next several days.
A new study from Stockholm University finds that climate changes are affecting weather forecasting accuracy, particularly with predicting summer rain volumes. Meanwhile, temperature and air pressure forecasts are expected to become more accurate.
Scientists propose a new benchmark skill to improve decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage. The study suggests that incorporating decadal climate prediction significantly improves baseline skill over major river basins at various lead times.
A major international collaboration aims to improve weather forecasting across Africa, with a focus on reducing the impact of severe weather events. The project seeks to build confidence between forecasters and users by developing new computer models and satellite methods.
Tropical Cyclone Veronica, a Category 4 system, is moving slowly towards the Pilbara coast of Western Australia. The cyclone is expected to make landfall on March 24, near Whim Creek, with severe coastal impact likely.
Tropical Cyclone Trevor has re-emerged in the Gulf of Carpentaria after crossing Cape York Peninsula. The cyclone is expected to intensify further and make landfall near Borroloola as a category 4 severe tropical cyclone.
Tropical Cyclone Veronica developed off Western Australia's northern coast, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing its visible image on March 20, 2019. The system intensified over the next two days, adopting a more southerly track towards the Pilbara coast.
Researchers used supercomputer simulations to analyze interactions between tiny ripples on droplet surfaces, finding that these waves enable the initial contact and merger of droplets. The study's findings have implications for improving 3D printing technologies and understanding thunderstorm formation.
Researchers used CubeSats to study alternative remote sensing technologies, finding they can provide added value in local severe storm forecasting. More CubeSats with increased data coverage yielded larger positive impacts, suggesting a cost-saving approach to mitigating data gaps.
Tropical Depression 03W has formed near the island of Yap in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean. The storm is expected to maintain its general course and speed through the weekend, passing close to Koror on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds remain at 30 mph, with damaging winds expected on the north side of the storm.
NASA's Aqua satellite captures visible image of Tropical Cyclone Pola, revealing a developing eye. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center expects the storm to weaken and transition into an extra-tropical storm.
A NASA study found that the 2015-2016 El Niño event triggered widespread disease outbreaks globally, including plague and hantavirus in Colorado, cholera in Tanzania, and dengue fever in Brazil and Southeast Asia. The study analyzed climate data and public health records to quantify the relationship between El Niño and disease outbreaks.
Typhoon Wutip has lost its eye and elongated due to wind shear, with maximum sustained winds decreasing to 90 mph. The storm is forecast to continue weakening over the next few days, becoming a depression in a day or two.
Typhoon Wutip shows strong thunderstorms with cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees Fahrenheit, indicative of a powerful storm. The National Weather Service has issued warnings for affected areas, predicting the typhoon to intensify and pass southwest of the Mariana Islands.
Tropical Depression 02W has strengthened into a tropical storm, with NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite capturing visible images of its organized center. The storm is forecast to intensify and potentially become a typhoon, affecting Guam and the surrounding areas.
Tropical Depression 02W has formed in the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, prompting warnings for Pohnpei, Chuuk and Yap States. NASA's Aqua satellite captured infrared data revealing areas with cloud top temperatures as cold as -80 degrees Fahrenheit.
A Cornell University team developed a smart control system that reduces energy usage by up to 10% by predicting accurate weather forecasts and building characteristics.
A new scale has been developed to characterize the strength and impacts of atmospheric rivers, which can deliver heavy precipitation to the Western United States. The scale assigns five categories to atmospheric rivers based on the amount of water vapor they carry and their duration in a given location.
Tropical Cyclone 12S has developed in the Southern Indian Ocean, with NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite capturing its formation on Feb. 5, 2019. The storm is expected to strengthen into a hurricane-force storm by Feb. 7, affecting the Republic of Mauritius.
Advances in weather forecasting have significantly improved accuracy, enabling reliable predictions up to 10 days in advance. This has enabled timely emergency preparations and evacuations for hazardous events like hurricanes and tornadoes, saving countless lives.
Simulating clouds over the Tibetan Plateau helps researchers understand the role of convective systems in disastrous Chinese weather events. The study reveals biased models with excessive water vapor lifting, leading to more high-level ice clouds and less middle-level cumulus cloud.
A new review paper by international climate experts highlights the prospects for skilful near-term climate predictions, out to just a few years ahead. These enhanced models feature the effects of man-made greenhouse gases and natural drivers, providing valuable information for policymakers and aid agencies.
DJ Seo, a civil engineering professor at UTA, is working on a project to merge forecasts and metrics from multiple sources into a single, integrated forecast. This will provide emergency management officials with more accurate and understandable information to make informed decisions during major weather events.
Researchers at Ohio University have found that tornadoes form from the ground up, contrary to long-held theories. This discovery has significant implications for tornado forecasting and warning systems.
A recent study by Chinese researchers reveals that horizontal heat flux in the mixed layer is crucial for extreme heat events. The analysis of a 2015 heatwave found that this factor, combined with sensible heat flux, drove high temperatures.
A collaborative research team examined predictive models used to forecast wind farm effects, revealing the importance of model resolution in simulating weather patterns. Higher vertical and horizontal resolutions improved simulations, but more study is needed to optimize wind energy deployment.
A new algorithm developed in the European TBO-Met project optimizes flight trajectories to reduce delays and enhance safety. The system can predict and mitigate weather-related uncertainties, resulting in increased efficiency and cost savings.
NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Owen showing a consolidating low level circulation center with deep convection building over the center. Sea surface temperatures are conducive for future tropical cyclone development, and forecast models indicate potential development over the next 24-36 hours.
Colorado State University scientists use the Madden-Julian Oscillation to forecast severe weather across the Plains and southeastern US. They achieved skillful predictions of severe weather activity about 60% to 70% of the time, including hail and tornadoes.
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite captured Tropical Depression 33W moving through central Philippines and entering the Sulu Sea. The storm is expected to strengthen as it crosses the South China Sea and heads toward Vietnam.
Tropical Storm Man-Yi is strengthening in the Northwestern Pacific, with warnings in effect for the Federated States of Micronesia and the Mariana Islands. The storm is expected to intensify into a typhoon by Thursday, potentially reaching winds of up to 110 mph.
Tropical Depression Man-yi has formed over the Northwestern Pacific Ocean, triggering watches and warnings for several Pacific island nations. The storm is expected to intensify through Friday, possibly becoming a tropical storm, with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph.
Tropical Cyclone Gaja's powerful thunderstorms circled its center, forming a thick band that wrapped into the low-level center from the eastern quadrant. The storm is moving west-southwest and has maximum sustained winds near 45 knots.
The VIMS hypoxia model reports a similar total volume of low-oxygen waters to 2017, but with earlier and longer-lasting low-oxygen conditions. Wind mixing played a crucial role in reducing mid-summer hypoxia.
Researchers developed a comprehensive forecast system to improve accuracy in wind, temperature, humidity, and gust forecasts. The scheme combines results from several global and regional forecasting schemes, reducing errors by up to 4 days.
Typhoon Yutu is intensifying east of Guam, with maximum sustained winds reaching 90 mph. The storm is expected to maintain its general course and speed over the next 24 hours, bringing typhoon-force winds up to 60 miles from the center.
Tropical Storm Yutu rapidly intensified from a tropical depression, becoming a storm with strong thunderstorms and winds of up to 50 mph. The storm is expected to pass just north of Saipan late Wednesday night or Thursday morning, posing a threat to Guam.
Researchers used NLLE approach to estimate predictability limit of TCs over WNP basin, finding a baseline uncertainty of 102 hours comparable to TC intensity. The spatial distribution characteristics reveal varying predictability limits across regions, with highest in eastern WNP and lowest in South China Sea.
Hurricane Michael, a Category 4 storm, was analyzed by NASA's Suomi NPP satellite, revealing strong thunderstorms and tropospheric gravity waves. The eye of the hurricane was well-defined, with maximum sustained winds near 145mph.
The Global Precipitation Measurement mission analyzed Tropical Storm Sergio's rainfall in the Eastern Pacific Ocean. Rainfall rates of over 2.2 inches per hour were measured north of the storm's eye feature.
The University of Oklahoma is developing the fastest and most advanced radar in the nation with a $3.4 million grant. The HORUS radar can scan the atmosphere in 30 seconds or less and distinguish between snowflakes, raindrops, hail stones or other targets within a storm, critical for forecasting and prediction.
Researchers at Penn State have developed a new weather model that incorporates data from next-generation satellites to improve tornado forecasting. The model was able to forecast supercell thunderstorms with high accuracy and suggests that lead times for tornado warnings can be extended beyond 30 minutes.
Tropical Storm Kirk brought intense rain to the Leeward Islands on September 28, with the heaviest downpours recorded near its center. The Global Precipitation Measurement mission detected hourly rainfall rates of up to 4 inches per hour, posing a risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
Typhoon Trami displays symmetrical shape and large eye as it approaches Japan's southern islands. Maximum sustained winds reach near 90 knots, forecast to impact Okinawa Island and surrounding areas.
Tropical Depression 29W has been issued a warning by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, located near Iwo To off Japan's eastern coast. The storm is expected to strengthen but become extratropical in 24 hours, posing no immediate threat to land masses.
Typhoon Trami was imaged by NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite on September 25, showing a wide eye and convection patterns. Cloud top temperatures near 190 Kelvin indicate potential heavy rainfall.
Tropical Storm Trami is expected to intensify through Saturday, bringing powerful storms with cloud tops as cold as minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit. A flash flood watch has been issued for Guam and the northern Marianas due to heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the storm.
Adding Arctic weather observations can help predict tropical cyclones' tracks and intensity more accurately, reducing extreme weather event risks. The study used radiosonde data from the Arctic to forecast three tropical cyclones, showing improved predictability with additional observations.
Florence brought massive rainfall to the Carolinas, exceeding 30 inches in some areas, causing record or major flooding along many rivers. The storm's heavy rainfall caused widespread damage and at least 20 fatalities.
Tropical Storm Helene is battling wind shear, causing a Tropical Storm Warning for the Azores Islands. Wind shear is weakening the storm's rotation and pushing strongest storms northeast of the center.
Hurricane Florence made landfall near Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina, bringing estimated maximum winds of 90 mph and a minimum central pressure estimate of 958 millibars. The storm's infrared imagery showed the power and extent of its massive storm system.
The TORUS project aims to collect high-resolution data from within severe storms to improve forecasting for tornadoes and severe storms. The research goal is to improve the conceptual model of supercell thunderstorms by exposing hidden structures that lead to tornado formation.
A new forecasting model uses Next-Generation Radar data to capture migratory patterns of birds with high spatial accuracy, explaining up to 81% of variation in migration timing and intensity across the U.S. The model can forecast movements up to a week ahead and estimate total bird numbers making the journey.
Hurricane Florence's powerful winds and storm surge are being closely monitored by NASA. The satellite images reveal a weakened eye due to southern shear, with cloud tops as cold as -80F (Celsius). This suggests potential for heavy rainfall.
Subtropical Storm Joyce is disorganized and wandering in the north central Atlantic Ocean, according to NASA satellite imagery. The system's patchy development of thunderstorms indicates a lack of organization, which may lead to heavy rain generation.
A new study uses weather forecasts and machine learning to predict bird migration across the United States, explaining 80% of variation in intensity. This tool helps reduce human-made threats during the migration journey, crucial for conserving migratory birds.
The USDA Forest Service introduces the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW) to predict wildland fire danger, leveraging temperature, moisture, and wind variables. Researchers tested HDW against existing indexes and found promising results, with potential applications worldwide.
Hurricane Olivia is expected to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to the Hawaiian Islands as it moves towards the state. The storm's cloud tops have temperatures near minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit, capable of generating heavy rainfall.