The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Many of these articles are available for early online access — they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form . Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.
Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation over the Last Millennium Reconstructed from Proxies
Journal of Climate
Greenhouse gas–driven increase in Earth’s energy budget is “unprecedented” in last 1,000 years. Using tree rings, corals, and ice cores, the authors create the first reconstruction of energy entering and leaving the Earth system over the last thousand years. They find that the rate of energy gain associated with industrial global warming is unprecedented in the last millennium. Preindustrial cooling trends were largely caused by volcanic eruptions.
The Increasing Incidence of Boreal and Western US Forest Wildfires and Its Causes: An Overview
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
U.S. forest fire burn area has increased threefold due to climate change. The average area of boreal and western U.S. forest burned per year has increased by approximately a factor of three since 2000, with rapid increases in large fires, according to a comprehensive literature review. Smoke has also increased over much of North America. Burn area and fire-related carbon emissions are most sensitive to aridity, which has increased as predicted with climate change—strong evidence that global warming, rather than fire management issues, is behind this increased burning.
Impacts of Different Anthropogenic Forcings on Tropical Cyclone Frequency in Large Ensemble Climate Model Simulations
Journal of Climate
Greenhouse gases appear responsible for tropical cyclone shifts. Model simulations suggest that increased greenhouse gases are likely influencing a southward shift and reduction in frequency of tropical cyclones (TCs) over the North Atlantic and eastern North Pacific. While there is significant variance among different models, the authors suggest that atmospheric aerosols would have caused an increase in frequency and a northward shift starting in the 1980s had aerosols remained the dominant influence over TC frequency.
Enhanced Teleconnections of Maritime Continent Deforestation on North Pacific Climate During La Niña Conditions
Journal of Climate
Deforestation in the Maritime Continent causes North American warming during La Niña . Deforestation in Pacific island nations like New Guinea affects large-scale atmospheric circulation, a modeling study suggests. While its effects are more confined during El Niño, Maritime Continent deforestation may trigger significant effects in the North Pacific, including warming in North America, during La Niña—a state likely to become more frequent with global warming.
Local-Scale Wind Forecasting for Tropical Cyclone Early Warnings
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
A step toward neighborhood-level hurricane forecasting. Tropical cyclone (TC) wind forecasts are typically too large-scale to inform decisions at the neighborhood level. A new machine learning system, LiveCyc, transforms TC forecasts into probabilistic, kilometer-scale wind predictions accounting for local factors like topography, showing promise for helping local decision-makers optimize protective measures in advance.
An Object-Based Analysis of Lightning Characteristics in Pre-Tropical Cyclogenesis Environments
Monthly Weather Review
Can lightning help predict hurricane genesis? This study uses data from the Geostationary Lighting Mapper to classify types of lightning within five recent North Atlantic storms, four of which developed into named tropical cyclones (Claudette, Ida, Earl, and Beryl). It found commonalities among the storms that became TCs. If these hold true over a wider number of disturbances, lightning might become a tool for forecasting tropical cyclone genesis.
Precipitation Changes and Possible Mechanisms in the Global Arid Regions During the Last 40 Years
Journal of Climate
Arid regions are getting drier with global warming . Extreme precipitation is globally increasing with climate change. However, in seven of eight arid regions studied, precipitation and extreme precipitation both show decreasing trends between 1980 and 2024. The exception is North Africa, where precipitation is increasing faster than the global mean. While factors correlated with precipitation (such as humidity) show an increase, with rising temperatures they tend to decrease, and arid regions are warming faster than average.
Weathering the Artificial Intelligence Revolution: Public Attitudes to Potential Adoption of Machine Learning-Based Forecasts
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems
UK public shows limited confidence in AI/machine learning weather forecasts. A survey of 6,000 people in the UK finds that 78% believe current numerical weather prediction forecasts are accurate, with high agreement among demographic groups. Only 47% believe that machine-learning weather forecasts would be accurate, suggesting the need for more engagement to identify and address concerns.
Hail Risk and Cropland Exposure Changes in the United States
Weather, Climate, and Society
Future hail risk in the Midwest and Great Plains . Hail is the third-costliest peril affecting crop production in the United States. This study finds that despite projected decreases in regional hail, the Great Plains face the greatest exposure-driven risk in the future due to the expansion of cropland into areas with extensive summer hail. Meanwhile, the Midwest and South may undergo hazard-driven loss increases due to more severe hail, despite negligible change in cropland extent.
Climate and Ecosystem Impacts of a Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Brazil
Earth Interactions
Global warming may reshape the Amazon and other Brazilian biomes. Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to rising ocean temperatures appears likely to reduce rainfall in the Amazon wet season and increase it in the dry season. Additionally, it may cause cooling in the Amazon, warming in central Brazil, and tropical forest expansion into Caatinga shrubland regions, according to a modeling study.
“When Should I Leave?”: The Effect of Impact Based Hurricane Wind and Storm Surge Emergency Alerts on Evacuation Intentions
Weather, Climate, and Society
Impact-based storm surge warnings may improve evacuation decision-making. A study of Florida and Louisiana residents found that “impact-based” hurricane storm surge warnings, which include information about adverse consequences such as road flooding, were effective in predicting intentions to evacuate, and were especially beneficial for those who had no prior experience with evacuation or storm surge.
Excellent Forecasts but Poor Outcomes: Why Can’t We Do Better?
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Why do weather disasters continue? Despite vast improvements in our ability to predict dangerous weather, catastrophic damage continues. The author identifies reasons including inadequate communication, ineffective evacuations, infrastructure issues, nonspecific or unclear forecast guidance, or inadequate/delayed emergency response. He suggests reorganizing National Weather Service offices to prioritize warnings, improved federal investment in local prediction, and establishing a National Disaster Review Board.
Seasonal and Geographical Differences in the Marine Thermal Influence on US Coastal Air Temperatures
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Oceans don’t always balance regional temperatures. In general, the ocean has a moderating influence on coastal air temperatures, warming in winter and cooling in summer. However, the authors find that on the U.S. East Coast south of Cape Hatteras (where the Gulf Stream is close to the coast), the ocean’s nighttime warming outweighs its daytime cooling effect, leading to an overall warming influence in spring/summer.
Design Challenges in the Hurricane Track Forecast Cone: Insights from Focus Groups with Under-Represented Populations
Weather, Climate, and Society
Disadvantaged communities struggle with the hurricane forecast cone. Focus groups of native Spanish speakers and members of economically disadvantaged communities in Miami examined the National Hurricane Center's popular Track Forecast Cone. Participants perceived the graphic to have too much clutter and an unclear layout. They struggled to interpret the cone shape, symbols and colors, watches and warnings, and forecast periods. They also expressed difficulty in using the graphic to make decisions. Some difficulties arose from issues interpreting the legend based on language and measurement conventions.
Institutional Conservation and Carbon Emission Mitigation: County-Level Evidence from the Establishment of China’s National Parks
Weather, Climate, and Society
National parks reduce emissions in China. The establishment of national parks in China is found to reduce county-level carbon emission intensity by fostering tertiary sector growth in low-carbon, high-value-added green services, such as ecotourism and cultural experiences, and by enhancing forest ecological benefits such as carbon sequestration.
How Have the Intrinsic Characteristics and Application of the Enhanced Fujita Scale Contributed to a Decreased Frequency of Intense Tornadoes in the United States?
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Intense tornado “drought” a product of the EF scale . In recent years (2014–23), fewer tornadoes have been rated at significant levels (EF3+) than in the past. This study adds evidence that this decrease is driven by differences in design and use between the old Fujita (F) and current Enhanced Fujita (EF) intensity scales, not by weather changes. The authors call for a reevaluation of the tornado record in the United States to create a more consistent record.
Water-Constrained Revegetation Potential in China’s Drylands Using a Multi-Data Ensemble Approach
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Determining water budgets for reforestation. Reforestation is an important natural form of carbon sequestration. The authors analyze tradeoffs between water conservation and reforestation in China, finding that in water-scarce areas, even using less water-intensive vegetation does not offset the water consumed. However, in areas of water surplus it is feasible to plant vegetation that consumes more water.
Climate Change and Outdoor Sport in Chile: A Review of Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation
Weather, Climate, and Society
Climate change impacts Chilean sports across seasons and categories. A literature review finds that among Chilean sports, “warm-season activities are increasingly constrained by heat stress and wildfire smoke; winter sports face shorter and less reliable seasons under declining snowpack; high-Andean sports are affected by glacier retreat, permafrost thaw, and route instability; and water-based sports are influenced by altered hydrology, atmospheric river events, storm surges, and coastal erosion.”
A Multi-model Perspective of Droughts in Future Climate and Implications for Irrigation in Malawi
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Climate change will increase irrigation challenges in Malawi . In Malawian river basins, there is very little buffer between the onset of meteorological drought and the diminishing of stream flow, this finds a multi-model study. This means water demand for irrigation often coincides with reduced water availability, a situation likely to worsen with climate change.
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org .
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/ .
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , Weather, Climate, and Society , the Journal of Climate , and Monthly Weather Review .