Industrialized farming relies heavily on outside inputs, like synthetic fertilizers and pesticides, machinery, seeds, and animal feed. A new study published in Nature Food predicts how much yield would be lost from ‘input shocks’ that disrupt these supplies. ‘Very little is known about how shocks in agricultural inputs would impact crop yields and food availability on a large scale. We used machine learning and spatially gridded datasets to model, for the first time, the impacts globally in high resolution,’ says the study’s lead author, Aino Ahvo.
‘Identifying high-risk areas for the greatest yield losses is crucial for global food security in these times of global turmoil. Areas facing the most risk should look for ways to reduce their dependency on imported inputs to mitigate the effects of potential trade shocks on food production. For example, they could replace synthetic fertilizers with more sustainable and local organic fertilizers,’ says Mika Jalava.
Nature Food
Agricultural input shocks affect crop yields more in the high-yielding areas of the world
9-Nov-2023