A recent study suggests that northern forests absorb less carbon than previously thought, with intact tropical forests taking up a larger proportion of the atmosphere's carbon dioxide, partially offsetting industrial emissions and deforestation.
A new technique called VORTRAC will provide a detailed 3D view of hurricane winds every six minutes, allowing forecasters to determine the storm's strength as it approaches land. This will enable rapid alerts for coastal communities if the hurricane suddenly intensifies or weakens.
A new study finds that Arctic sea ice is retreating more quickly than computer models project, with the actual rate being 30 years ahead of schedule. The research indicates that greenhouse gases may be playing a significantly greater role in ice loss than previously thought.
The PACDEX project will study plumes of airborne dust and pollutants from Asia to North America, exploring their effects on clouds, precipitation, and climate. The team aims to determine how particles influence clouds and climate, shedding light on one major environmental issue of this decade.
Researchers predict Arctic sea ice will retreat rapidly, becoming nearly ice-free by 2040, with global warming exacerbating the issue. The study suggests that greenhouse gas emissions can impact the likelihood of abrupt ice loss.
The COSMIC satellite system provides unprecedented information on the atmosphere's temperature and water vapor structure, enabling more accurate long-range weather forecasts and climate change analysis. The system's unique global coverage and ability to gather data above hard-to-reach locations enhance global-scale monitoring.
A team of scientists found that climate change is causing a 3% reduction in the density of the Earth's outermost atmosphere, or thermosphere, by 2017. The decrease will reduce drag on satellites, allowing them to stay airborne longer and potentially saving millions of dollars in fuel costs.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research has developed an enhanced in-flight icing product to guide aircraft around hazardous icing conditions. This new system rates areas by icing severity and probability of encounters, helping reduce flight delays and fuel costs.
Scientists project that most of the world will face enhanced risks of heat waves, intense precipitation, and weather extremes by 2080-2099. The study used advanced climate models to analyze how weather extremes could change in the next century.
A new study suggests injecting sulfates into the stratosphere could slow down global warming and provide more time to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. The approach has been shown to stabilize climate for up to 20 years, but geoengineering is not a panacea and mitigation alone can also address ocean acidification issues.
A review of existing results and new calculations by US, Swiss, and German researchers suggest that solar brightness has a negligible effect on Earth's climate. The study implies that human influences must outweigh the effects of solar changes in causing global warming over the past century.
A new study finds that human-caused increases in greenhouse gas concentrations are primarily responsible for rising ocean temperatures in key hurricane breeding grounds of the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. The research used 22 different computer models to show a strong link between warming sea surface temperatures and human activities.
Researchers launch large balloons with instrument packages over Africa and the Atlantic to gather data on hurricane conditions. The data will help predict which systems develop into hurricanes, providing critical insights for improving weather forecasting.
The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) has been adopted for operational use, predicting extreme weather with substantially improved accuracy. The high-resolution WRF serves both public forecasts and cutting-edge research, leading to better forecasts.
A new radar technique is being tested to track water vapor in the lower atmosphere, helping forecasters predict storm locations and timing. The REFRACTT project uses multiple Doppler weather radars to measure changes in radar signals caused by refraction, revealing the presence or absence of atmospheric moisture.
A new report warns that carbon dioxide emissions are dramatically altering ocean chemistry, threatening marine organisms such as corals and pteropods. The report highlights the potential impacts on marine food webs, biodiversity, and ecosystems, emphasizing the need for further research to understand these changes.
NCAR scientists conclude that global warming surpassed natural cycles in fueling the 2005 hurricane season. The study found that ocean temperatures, particularly in the tropical North Atlantic, were record-high and attributed to global warming, accounting for 0.8 degrees F of the rise.
A study found a 3.5% slowdown in the Walker circulation, which drives trade winds and ocean currents. This could lead to a decrease in wind-forced ocean flow by up to 20% by 2100, impacting marine life and fishing regions.
The COSMIC satellite network measures atmospheric data daily in real time over thousands of points on Earth using GPS signals. Temperature and water vapor profiles will help meteorologists forecast storms and study long-term climate change trends.
Researchers Bette Otto-Bliesner and Jonathan Overpeck base their findings on data from ancient coral reefs, ice cores, and other natural climate records. The Community Climate System Model (CCSM) suggests that Arctic warming could lead to sea level rise of up to 11 feet, while paleoclimate records indicate a rise of 13-20 feet.
The NCAR team predicts that Cycle 24 will produce larger-than-usual sunspots, affecting satellite orbits and power systems. Scientists developed a model tracking subsurface movements of sunspot remnants for more than 98% accurate forecasts.
The MIRAGE project, led by NCAR, aims to quantify air pollution emitted by Mexico City from multiple perspectives. Researchers will use aircraft, ground-based instruments, and satellite observations to gather data on the pollutants' life cycle, including their transformation by chemical reactions and interaction with other sources.
Researchers will use HIAPER to explore mountain waves and rotors, improving aviation safety and predicting turbulent conditions. The project aims to understand the three-dimensional nature of rotors and their impact on climate and air quality.
The Wyoming Cloud Seeding Pilot Program aims to evaluate the effectiveness of silver iodide in increasing snowpack and providing fresh water. A 10% increase in snowpack would provide significant benefits, including increased water supply and hydroelectric power generation.
A study predicts that up to 90% of the Northern Hemisphere's permafrost will thaw by 2100, threatening ecosystems and climate change. Permafrost holds significant carbon emissions, which could accelerate climate change.
Land use changes in the Amazon region could exacerbate global warming due to deforestation, while agriculture in midlatitudes can counteract warming by up to 50%. The study utilized a global climate model to examine two scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and found contrasting results
A new study by NCAR researchers finds that US-China trade imbalances significantly boost global carbon emissions, increasing US indirect responsibility. The study estimates an additional 720 million metric tons of CO2 emissions from 1997 to 2003 due to this imbalance.
A new study reveals that warmer oceans and atmosphere will cause more intense precipitation worldwide, especially in tropical regions. Heavier rain will fall in areas such as North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, while the Mediterranean and US Southwest may experience decreased average precipitation due to longer dry periods.
A new weather model, ARW, uses high-resolution data to predict hurricane intensity and location of fine-scale rain bands. This enables better warning systems for floods, power outages, and road blockage.
A study found that hurricanes have become more intense and frequent worldwide, especially in the North Atlantic, with Category 4 and 5 storms increasing by 56% since 1975-89. Sea surface temperatures have risen across the globe, contributing to the observed changes.
Researchers used the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) to study the Permian extinction event, which saw 90-95% of marine species and 70% of terrestrial species die. The model found that warming ocean waters at higher latitudes due to rising CO2 levels led to a stratified ocean with little oxygen, making it deadly for marine life.
The new Web-based modules, developed by COMET, will acquaint forecasters with the physics behind rip currents and help them use wind and wave forecasts to produce outlooks of rip-current risk. The modules include animated depictions of rip-current evolution in three dimensions.
A recent NCAR study found that Alaskan and Canadian wildfires emitted 30 teragrams of carbon monoxide, causing a 25% increase in ozone levels in parts of the northern continental US and a 10% increase in Europe.
Climate expert Kevin Trenberth warns that hurricanes will intensify due to global warming, fueled by rising ocean temperatures and increased atmospheric water vapor. This may lead to heavier rains and an increased risk of flooding at landfall, particularly in the US coastline.
The WVSS II sensors gather data more often, at higher vertical resolution, and at lower cost than satellites and balloons. This improves forecasts of thunderstorms, microbursts, turbulence, fog, ceiling visibility, rotating wakes from other aircraft, snow and ice storms, and year-round precipitation.
The Rapid-Scan DOW radar promises a complete picture of tornado evolution by detailing critical steps in tornado behavior, thanks to its 5- to 10-second resolution and close range. The radar's analysis will help produce better warnings and provide insights into the distribution of features across many types of tornadoes.
A NCAR researcher used white-light images of the Sun's corona to study magnetic flux ropes, which store massive amounts of energy. The study found that these structures can form prior to a coronal mass ejection (CME), suggesting a new approach for understanding and forecasting CMEs.
A new study links drought in southern Africa to the warming of the Indian Ocean, contradicting earlier research that connected it to the Sahelian region. The analysis suggests a late 20th-century cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean was key to Sahelian drought, with recent warming leading to increased rainfall in the area.
A new study quantifies the committed climate change in the 21st century, predicting a half-degree Celsius global temperature rise and over 11 centimeters of sea level rise by 2100. The warming is driven by thermal inertia from oceans and existing greenhouse gases.
The US exports nitrogen pollution beyond its borders, with most deposits found near their sources. The study estimates that the US loses track of nearly 6 million metric tons of nitrogen emissions each year, which are possibly transported to Western Europe.
A new NCAR study reveals that rising temperatures are the primary cause of expanding droughts globally. The research found that almost half of the change in dry conditions since the 1970s is due to warming rather than decreased rainfall or snowfall.
A new system will be tested at Denver International Airport to detect freezing drizzle and prevent engine damage. The system can identify the hazard more accurately than visual observation, which often goes undetected due to small droplet size.
Climate scientists attribute observed global warming to a combination of natural and human activities, but removing long-term solar cycles from models reveals minimal impact on early 20th century warming, suggesting other influences may play a greater role.
A field study by NCAR and NOAA has provided new insights into bow echoes, revealing that smaller storms can be more destructive than larger ones. The BAMEX experiment used aircraft, ground-based storm chasers, and advanced radar technology to collect detailed data on thunderstorms in the Midwest.
A recent NCAR study found a significant decrease in frost days worldwide over the last 50 years, with greatest reductions in the western US and Canada. The factors at work are attributed to changes in atmospheric circulation, including increased mild air from the Pacific and cold Canadian air from the east.
Scientists have discovered a distant planet using the transit technique and spectroscopy, revealing key findings about TrES-1's atmosphere and orbit. The discovery marks the first extrasolar planet found by a dedicated survey of thousands of relatively bright stars.
Heat waves in Europe and North America are projected to intensify, leading to more severe impacts on human society. The study finds that the frequency and duration of heat waves will increase, posing significant threats to public health.
The HIRDLS instrument will capture the chemistry and dynamics of four atmospheric layers, providing insights into greenhouse gas concentrations, ozone pollution, and aerosol characteristics. The data will shed light on climate change impacts and atmospheric modifications.
The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research has purchased a large-scale Linux-based computing system, adding significant computing capacity to NCAR's arsenal. The system will enable the evaluation of major community climate and weather codes in a full-scale Linux environment.
The Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) predicts higher global temperatures if societies continue to emit large quantities of carbon dioxide. With improved accuracy, CCSM3 will be used to study climate patterns and chemical processes, shedding light on the impacts of climate change.