Researchers developed a method to predict which hurricanes are likely to intensify rapidly, providing local officials with crucial time to make lifesaving preparations. The new technique uses statistical analysis of past storms and sea surface temperatures to calculate the probability of rapid intensification.
A new study based on global airborne surveys found that forests in the tropics take up less carbon than predicted, and models struggle to simulate carbon dioxide uptake in forests north and south of the tropics. Regular airborne missions could narrow uncertainty further.
A new study by the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research has found that the biological productivity of the Southern Ocean is substantially greater than previously estimated. This discovery has significant implications for our understanding of the global carbon cycle and the marine food web.
A new study led by NSF NCAR scientists reveals that rising carbon dioxide levels will impact the upper atmosphere's response to geomagnetic storms, affecting satellite operations. Future storms may nearly triple the density increase, with regions being 20-50% less dense at peak.
Scientists at NSF NCAR developed a method using satellite imagery and USGS data to assess forest recovery, revealing that areas with conservation practices recover faster. The study also found that fire severity increases in unprotected areas and that evergreen forests benefit the most from protective measures.
Emissions from WUI fires are proportionately three times more likely to lead to premature deaths than emissions from remote wildfires. The study drew on a database of WUI fires and advanced computer modeling techniques to simulate pollutants from fires.
A new study found that intensive farming and shallow groundwater in the US Corn Belt increase precipitation recycling by almost 30%, providing a significant boost to rainfall during the growing season. The research, published in PNAS, used advanced computer modeling techniques to quantify the impact of these factors on regional climate.
A new study found that climate warming will increase evaporation of ocean waters and alter atmospheric rivers in Southern California, while warmer temperatures in the ocean and atmosphere will affect those in the Pacific Northwest. This could lead to increased flooding risks and more powerful storms.
Model simulations reveal a unique pattern of polar vortices that evolves with the solar cycle, shedding light on the Sun's magnetism and potential space weather disruptions. The findings imply that future missions to the Sun may observe these vortices during certain phases of the solar cycle.
An international team produced global maps of the coronal magnetic field using a new instrument called UCoMP. The observations are providing valuable insights into the processes that drive intense solar storms impacting technologies and lives on Earth.
A new study by NSF NCAR reveals that detecting Kelvin waves can predict active hurricane periods weeks in advance, allowing forecasters to prepare for potential storms. The research used innovative computer modeling to analyze the connection between Kelvin waves and hurricanes.
Researchers have proposed guidelines for evaluating proposals to inject sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, focusing on technical feasibility and cooling potential. The guidelines aim to identify the most feasible and legitimate scenarios, considering both risks and benefits.
Researchers found that turbulent movements of air in clouds play a key role in the growth of droplets and initiation of rain. Simulations with turbulence showed rain formed around 20 minutes earlier and with seven times more rainwater than simulations without turbulence.
Researchers found that higher atmospheric moisture produced weaker and slower-moving African easterly waves, making it harder for hurricanes to form. The study used innovative modeling capabilities to simulate the effects of increased regional moisture on hurricane formation.
Researchers found that early forecast information sets the stage for how people react to subsequent warning messages, and authoritative sources can better engage at-risk community members. The study identified the most effective types of images in conveying hurricane risks, with the 'cone of uncertainty' being the most retweeted graphic.
Research reveals that the East Asian Monsoon delivers high levels of pollutants to the upper atmosphere, where they can influence the climate system. The findings raise questions about the pace of ozone layer recovery and highlight the need for further research into the implications of these pollutants.
Scientists have constructed a global map of burned areas at the edge of cities, revealing a significant increase in wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires worldwide. The fraction of global fires occurring in WUI areas increased by 23% from 2005 to 2020.
Researchers used advanced computer models to simulate the Lahaina Fire, which killed 100 people and destroyed over 2,200 structures. The simulation showed how strong winds whipped up a brushfire and drove flames through neighborhoods, helping scientists develop more detailed predictions of wildfires in populated areas.
A new study found that atmospheric moisture has not increased as expected over arid and semi-arid regions despite climate warming. This could exacerbate future wildfires and ecosystem stress in these areas.
New research by the National Center for Atmospheric Research shows a fivefold increase in damaging thunderstorm straight line winds in the central U.S. over the past 40 years, resulting from warmer temperatures and increasing wind speeds. The study used high-resolution computer modeling to estimate changes in winds and found that clima...
New research identifies two modes of rapid intensification, one linked to favorable environmental conditions and warm surface waters, the other triggered by major bursts of thunderstorms far from the storm's center. These findings may lead to better understanding and prediction of catastrophic hurricanes.
Researchers at NCAR use satellite monitoring to quantify air quality impacts of increased copper and cobalt mining in Africa's Copperbelt. The study provides valuable information on the impact of mining operations on local air quality, enabling remote monitoring of increases and decreases in mining activities.
Simultaneous large wildfires will become more frequent in the Western United States due to climate change, putting a strain on firefighting efforts. The study found that peak seasons for simultaneous blazes could be several weeks longer by the end of the century, affecting resource allocation and prevention strategies.
Researchers at NCAR create detailed drought forecasts using statistical methods and machine learning, predicting summer drought conditions in 81-94% of cases. The technique can help manage water resources, prevent wildfires, and inform agricultural decisions.
A new study suggests that catastrophic Australian bushfires in 2019-2020 contributed to a rare, three-year La Niña event. The research found that wildfire emissions brightened cloud decks across the Southern Hemisphere, cooling the Tropical Pacific ocean and ultimately shifting climate conditions.
A recent study found that the way volcanic eruptions are represented in climate models can degrade their accuracy in predicting decadal variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific. These variations have significant impacts on global precipitation and severe weather patterns.
A new study highlights Asian megacities like Chennai, Kolkata, Yangon, Bangkok, Ho Chi Minh City, and Manila as facing significant risks from sea level rise by 2100. The research incorporates natural sea level fluctuations to show how climate change amplifies this effect, leading to more frequent extreme flooding events.
The study reveals that the Dust Bowl's extreme heating influenced temperatures across North America and beyond, suppressing cloud formation in some regions. The research suggests that the hot, exposed land in the central US triggered a wave-5 teleconnection pattern, which spread record-breaking heat to Europe and East Asia.
A new study highlights five critical challenges in wildfire research, including promoting coordinated research and drawing on diverse sources of knowledge. The authors emphasize the need for a more proactive fire research agenda to create safe communities and ecosystems.
Scientists have identified possible 'thermal refugia' where coral reefs are more likely to survive warming oceans. An interactive global atlas has been created with locations of these areas, providing a starting point for conservation efforts.
A new climate change study finds that water resources will become more variable and unpredictable due to declining snowpack, resulting in less reliable runoff and streamflow. This decline will have cascading impacts on ecosystems that rely on snow-based water resources, including drying out soils and increasing fire risk.
A new AI-powered technique updates fuel inventories to better predict fire behavior and spread. The method, developed at NCAR, uses satellite imagery to account for pine beetle damage and was tested on the 2020 East Troublesome Fire in Colorado.
Researchers developed a method to predict Western wildfire severity based on winter and spring climate conditions. The study found that April snowpack has a persistent influence on land and atmosphere during the summer, making it more conducive for fires.
Scientists developed a method to estimate summer rainfall in the Southwest months in advance, performing well in Arizona. By analyzing lower atmosphere moisture, they created monthly forecasts to aid reservoir storage and water allocation decisions.
Wildfires in the Pacific Northwest are altering seasonal air pollution patterns and causing a spike in unhealthy pollutants in August. The research found that carbon monoxide levels have increased sharply, indicating the extent of smoke's impacts on clean air gains.
A new study finds that climate change will increase the risk of debris flows, flash floods, and extreme rainfall events following wildfires in the western US. By the end of the century, more than 90% of extreme fire events will be followed by at least three extreme rainfalls within five years.
A new study questions a widely-held theory that sudden stratospheric warming caused the extreme cold weather in Texas and other parts of the US. The research suggests that the polar vortex's disruption, which occurred six weeks after the initial warming event, was not significant enough to impact the weather.
A new study led by NCAR suggests that many coronal loops on the Sun are actually wrinkles in a bright plasma veil, rather than distinct strands of plasma. This finding has significant implications for understanding the Sun's atmosphere and density, temperature, and other physical characteristics.
NCAR's new WindCube mini-satellite will measure the intense heating of the Sun at high altitudes, improving models of the upper atmosphere. The satellite's data will help scientists better predict impacts on communication systems and satellites due to disruptions in Earth's upper atmosphere.
A new study led by NCAR finds that the Southern Ocean absorbs significantly more carbon than it releases, clarifying its role as a carbon sink. Airborne measurements of carbon dioxide reveal critical patterns in the global carbon cycle, providing insights into climate change projections and emission reduction measures.
The tropopause is rising at a steady pace since 1980 due to human-induced warming of the lower atmosphere. This trend continues even as stratospheric temperatures stabilize after ozone depletion efforts.
A new study finds that massive columns of smoke from a nuclear war would destroy much of the ozone layer over a 15-year period, with peak ozone loss averaging about 75% worldwide. This would lead to devastating effects on human health and food supplies, as well as terrestrial ecosystems.
A new study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research found that the Montreal Protocol will spare Americans from 443 million skin cancer cases and 63 million cataract cases through the end of this century. The treaty phased out ozone-destroying substances, resulting in reduced UV radiation and corresponding health benefits.
Climate change is altering flooding patterns, with moderate storms producing less runoff due to increased soil moisture, but extreme storms causing more devastating flooding. The study's findings have significant implications for infrastructure design and flood risk mitigation strategies.
A new study found that one-quarter of Americans suffered from heat-related symptoms in 2020, with women, low-income households, and non-white populations most vulnerable. The research also revealed that the pandemic exacerbated existing vulnerabilities, making it harder for people to access cooling centers and medical care.
A study found that the Australian bushfires had a more significant impact on global climate than pandemic lockdowns, cooling the planet by about .06 degrees Celsius. The fires injected sulfates and other particles into the atmosphere, disrupting the climate system and influencing storm tracks.
A new study finds a correlation between the end of solar cycles and a switch from El Nino to La Nina conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The researchers applied a 22-year solar clock to find this elusive correlation, which could improve predictability of major El Nino and La Nina events.
A new study uses a high-resolution ocean model to track the migration of baby sea turtles in their 'lost years'. The model shows that hatchlings are swept towards regions with favorable food availability, increasing their chances of survival. This research provides insights into the critical stages of sea turtle conservation efforts.
Researchers predict that Alaska will experience a significant increase in thunderstorms by the end of the century, with storms becoming more frequent and intense, especially in southern regions. This shift is driven by warming temperatures and ice-free waters around Alaska, which will fuel atmospheric moisture.
Research led by NCAR found that COVID-19 lockdowns caused a slight warming effect on the planet, with temperatures rising by 0.2-0.5 degrees Fahrenheit in some regions. The study highlights the complex influence of aerosol emissions on climate, which can either cool or warm the planet depending on the type and amount.