The new HPE-Cray EX supercomputer will be a 19.87-petaflops system, 3.5 times faster than the existing Cheyenne supercomputer, and will enable researchers to conduct advanced studies on climate change, severe weather, and other Earth system processes.
Scientists predict that Sunspot Cycle 25 will be one of the strongest on record due to its predicted peak sunspot number. The new cycle is forecasted to start with a bang, and if correct, it would support the research team's theory about the Sun's internal magnetic machine.
The Arctic has transitioned into a new climate state due to rapid warming, with sea ice extent dropping by 31% since the 1970s. The study found that even unusually cold years will no longer have the same amount of summer sea ice as in the mid-20th century.
A new study suggests that challenges simulating clouds are causing some climate models to be more sensitive to carbon dioxide, potentially leading to a warmer future. The updated models have shown a greater range of responses than previous generations, with some models showing higher sensitivity and others lower.
A new research project aims to investigate the intersecting impacts of extreme heat and COVID-19 on vulnerable populations. The study will conduct three national surveys to understand perceptions and vulnerabilities in different states and counties.
A new study suggests the MOSAiC research team's ship may melt out months before its year-end goal due to rapid changes in Arctic sea ice. The team used climate models to simulate conditions along potential routes, finding that thinner sea ice and increased variability could lead to early melt-out.
Scientists trained a deep learning model to recognize features of individual storms that affect hail formation and size, improving prediction accuracy by up to 10%. The study highlights the importance of considering a storm's entire structure in hail forecasting.
Researchers have identified 'terminator' events that mark the end of sunspot cycles, potentially triggering plasma tsunamis and the start of new solar cycles. The study provides insight into the mysterious timing of sunspot cycles, which are crucial for predicting solar storms that can disrupt Earth's upper atmosphere.
A new forecasting system provides 72-hour forecasts of fine particulates in New Delhi, helping officials and residents plan to reduce exposure to unhealthy air. The system uses measurements, computer modeling, and statistical techniques, improving accuracy but requiring refinement for precise pollutant levels.
Research suggests that smaller snowstorms will decrease in number, but the most powerful nor'easters will remain frequent and crippling. The study's findings have significant implications for transportation, economy, and infrastructure along the Eastern Seaboard.
A team of scientists developed a single, cohesive computer model to simulate the entire life cycle of a solar flare, from energy buildup to explosive release. The comprehensive model captures the formation of tangled magnetic field lines and roiling sunspots, which can impact Earth's power grids, communications networks, and astronauts.
A new study suggests that cover crops grown in fields during winter can increase temperatures in the northern US and southern Canada by up to 3 degrees Celsius. This occurs due to reduced snow reflectivity, allowing crop stems and leaves to absorb solar heat and warm the surrounding atmosphere.
A new study reveals that human-caused climate change drives uneven sea level rise, with regions experiencing higher rates expected to continue trending. Climate models suggest that up to half of regional variation in sea level rise can be attributed to climate change.
Researchers analyzed data from over 185 ground stations and found that half of the world's measured precipitation falls within a 12-day period, set to become even more skewed under climate change. This uneven distribution could lead to increased flooding and damage associated with extreme weather events.
A new analysis of 22 recent hurricanes suggests they would become stronger and wetter in a warmer climate, with increased rainfall rates. The study found that average hourly maximum wind speeds would rise by 6% and rainfall rates would increase by 24%, leading to more devastating flooding.
A new analysis found that record-breaking ocean heat fueled Hurricane Harvey, with the Gulf's waters being warmer than any time on record. The hotter-than-normal conditions supercharged the storm, fueling it with vast stores of moisture, resulting in devastating flooding.
A new study reveals that US improvements in air quality are slowing down, making it challenging to meet ozone pollution goals. The slowdown is attributed to slower-than-expected reductions in emissions from industrial and commercial sources.
Scientists found that meeting temperature targets without overshooting may not require zero emissions, while drastic cuts in emissions can stabilize warming at 1.5 or 2 degrees C. The timing of emission reductions matters significantly.
Reducing greenhouse gas emissions would significantly reduce sea level rise globally by the end of the century, especially for coastal cities on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. Cities like New York, Boston, London, and others would see substantial benefits from emission reductions.
A new study found that future volcanic eruptions could lead to surface cooling of up to 40% due to the oceans' decreased ability to moderate the climate impacts. The increased cooling would disrupt the water cycle, decreasing global precipitation.
Scientists estimate that a massive asteroid impact could have triggered 2 years of darkness on Earth, shutting down photosynthesis and drastically cooling the planet. The research found that soot in the atmosphere would have blocked sunlight, causing a steep decline in average temperatures.
A new study found that warmer temperatures have deepened the decline in streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande watershed since the mid-1980s. The research suggests that incorporating temperature into water supply forecasts could improve their accuracy, especially in the face of climate change.
NCAR will develop a three-year project to provide detailed forecasts of wind and solar irradiance at Kuwait's 2-gigawatt Shagaya renewable energy plant. This technology will help Kuwait reach its goal of generating 15% of its energy from renewable sources by 2030.
A recent study found that a specific wave pattern in the upper atmosphere, called wavenumber-5, is associated with California's droughts and floods. The wave pattern emerges during the northern winter and can lead to persistent extreme events like heat waves, droughts, and floods. Scientists hope that this new understanding of wavenumb...
A team of scientists has discovered large-scale planetary waves on the Sun, which may influence space weather and offer a new source of predictability. The discovery uses data from multiple satellites to identify and track coronal bright points, revealing bands of magnetized activity that propagate slowly across the Sun.
A new study by NCAR scientists finds that as the world warms, mountain snowpack will not only melt earlier but also more slowly. This shift could lead to reduced streamflow, affecting urban water supplies and riparian ecosystems.
The new Cheyenne supercomputer provides a major tool for advancing understanding of the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences. Scientists will use it to study phenomena such as wildfires and seismic activity, leading to better protecting society from natural disasters.
A new study finds that extreme precipitation events could increase across the US due to climate change. The research suggests that summertime storms producing extreme downpours may increase by as much as 400 percent, leading to more frequent and intense flash floods.
New research indicates that the US will see a ratio of 15:1 record highs to lows by 2065 due to increased greenhouse gas emissions. The study suggests that temperatures are expected to rise by around 3 degrees C over the continental US, leading to more frequent record-breaking heatwaves.
Scientists found that analyzing snowmelt and soil moisture could have predicted the 2012 US drought up to four months in advance. The study used a combination of observations and a regional model ensemble to improve seasonal drought forecasts.
The National Center for Atmospheric Research's WRF-Hydro model provides continuous predictions of water levels and potential flooding in rivers and streams across the contiguous United States. This enables better management of reservoirs, navigation along major rivers, and planning for droughts.
A new study reveals that greenhouse gases are already accelerating sea level rise, but the impact was initially masked by the massive 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. The study finds that removing the eruption's cooling effect from satellite records shows a clear acceleration in sea level rise over time.
A new study by NCAR suggests that the recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent can be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, specifically the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). This natural variability cancels out when simulations are averaged, leaving only human-caused climate change as the p...
The first wave of low-cost weather stations have been installed in Zambia, providing critically needed information for farmers and residents. The stations, built with 3D-printed parts, transmit temperature, rainfall, wind, and other weather parameters.
A new study led by NCAR finds that widespread ocean oxygen loss due to climate change will be detectable between 2030 and 2040, posing a threat to marine life. The research uses climate simulations to distinguish between natural variability and deoxygenation caused by climate change.
A new study led by Karen McKinnon at NCAR found that a distinct pattern of sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean can predict an increased chance of summertime heat waves in the eastern US up to 50 days in advance. The research used data from 1,613 weather stations and daily sea surface temperatures to define extreme heat events...
Research predicts increased suitability for Aedes aegypti mosquitoes in southern and eastern US cities, leading to potential Zika outbreaks. Warm weather conditions facilitate mosquito populations, especially in April, June, July, August, and September.
A new study predicts that heat waves could become annual occurrences across 60% of the world's land surface by 2075 if greenhouse gas emissions continue unchecked. However, aggressive emission reductions could significantly reduce the severity of these events, especially for vulnerable populations.
A study found that weather patterns typically bringing moisture to the southwestern US are becoming less frequent, leading to a drier climate. The region is already vulnerable to drought, and this shift has significant implications for water resources.
Cheyenne will be a critical tool for researchers studying climate change, severe weather, and other important geoscience topics. The new system will help scientists lay the groundwork for improved predictions of various phenomena, including thunderstorm outbreaks and solar cycles.
The ORCAS field campaign aims to understand the role of the Southern Ocean in absorbing excess carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere. By tracking oxygen and carbon dioxide levels, scientists will gain insights into the ocean's ability to act as a carbon sink.
NCAR will develop a revolutionary forecasting system to predict wildland fire behavior in Colorado, capturing critical feedbacks between fires and local weather. The system will provide unprecedented detail about interactions between weather and fire, helping firefighters and the public.
Scientists at NCAR predict a possible slow-down in winter sea ice loss over the next several years, driven by changes in the North Atlantic ocean circulation. Weakening of the AMOC may mask human-caused climate change impacts and stabilize sea ice extent.
Climate change impacts on global food security are projected to be larger in tropical and subtropical regions due to changes in crop and livestock productivity. The report warns that warmer temperatures and altered precipitation patterns can disrupt transportation systems, degrade food safety, and threaten food production.
The National Weather Service is launching new graphics to communicate forecast information more clearly, based on research by a team at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The new icons feature split images and color-coded boxes to convey the existence, timing, and potential severity of upcoming weather threats.
Researchers will use lab-equipped aircraft, ground-based instruments, and weather balloons to understand nighttime storm formation and evolution. The goal is to improve forecasts of damaging storms and provide insights into atmospheric conditions that lead to storm clustering and organization.
A new study projects that US residents' exposure to extreme heat could increase four- to six-fold by mid-century, driven by both a warming climate and a growing population. The research found that the average annual exposure to extreme heat in the US during this period is expected to be between 10 and 14 billion person-days.
A new study by NCAR and CDC researchers finds strong correlations between warmer temperatures and higher rates of West Nile virus disease in the US. Precipitation also influences disease outbreaks, but with varying regional impacts. The study aims to develop a system to forecast outbreaks weeks or months in advance.
New research reveals quasi-annual variations in solar activity that can amplify or weaken solar storms, affecting Earth's atmosphere. Understanding these variations could lead to improved predictions of space weather events and mitigation strategies.
New research suggests that Pacific trade winds played a key role in twentieth-century climate variation, coinciding with globally warming temperatures. The study found that weaker winds allowed warming to accelerate, while stronger winds prevented it. This natural process has been linked to the current slowdown in global warming.