Sophia Antipolis, France – 24 September 2026. Semaglutide is known to reduce the risk of serious heart disease. However, a new study published in the European Heart Journal [1] today (Thursday) suggests that this effect cannot not be entirely explained by patients losing weight on the drug.
Researchers examined known risk factors for heart disease, such as body weight and waist circumference, in patients taking part in a clinical trial of semaglutide for overweight and obesity. Although the risk of serious cardiovascular disease was lower for those taking the drug, only half of this reduction could be explained by changes in these risk factors.
The researchers say semaglutide may also be working to reduce heart disease in some other way, meaning it can be considered as way of preventing serious cardiovascular disease, over and above its current use as a weight loss treatment.
The study is based on patients taking part in a gold-standard clinical trial called SELECT (Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People with Overweight or Obesity). Half of the 17,604 patients on the trial were treated with semaglutide, a type of drug called a GLP-1 receptor agonist, and half were given a placebo.
The study was led by Professor Helen Colhoun from the University of Edinburgh, UK. She said: “Several major trials have established that GLP-1 receptor agonists reduce serious cardiovascular disease, primarily in people with type 2 diabetes. SELECT was the first trial to show that these drugs can also lower cardiovascular disease in people who did not have diabetes. In this study, we analysed data from the trial to ascertain whether the reductions in known cardiovascular risk factors that we saw in the trial could fully account for the reduction in heart disease.”
The researchers looked at how factors like body weight, waist circumference and blood pressure changed over two years in people on the trial. They also looked at changes in people’s blood tests, including cholesterol, and signs of diabetes, inflammation and kidney function. They compared this information with rates of cardiovascular disease, such as heart attack, stroke or death from cardiovascular disease, in the patients.
Patients who were receiving semaglutide lost weight, their waist measurements reduced and their blood tests improved. However, when researchers looked at all these factors separately and together, they could not fully account for the 20% lower rates of heart disease in patients taking the treatment.
Professor Colhoun said: “Our analyses could not fully ascribe the effects of semaglutide on cardiovascular disease to known risk factors with any certainty. Whether we combine all risk factors together or look at some subsets of the risk factors, no more than half of the reduction in heart disease could be explained by the changes in these risk factors. These results suggest that semaglutide should be considered as a cardiovascular disease reduction drug and not just as a weight loss drug.
“We don’t know how else semaglutide could be preventing heart disease, but many other mechanisms have been proposed. These include anti-inflammatory effects not fully captured by the risk factors measured in the trial, and other direct effects on heart muscle or on the lining of blood vessels. We need more research to fully explore other potential mechanisms of how semaglutide reduces cardiovascular disease.”
The researchers caution that, even with a large study of this kind, their findings rely on estimates of risk, and that the trial included patients being treated during the COVID-19 pandemic, which had an impact on data collection. They also point out that some patients in the trial may have lost weight for other reasons besides taking semaglutide, for example due to frailty, which can increase rather than decrease the risk of serious cardiovascular disease.
In an accompanying editorial [2] Professor Subodh Verma from University of Toronto, Canada and colleagues said: “By all accounts, the remarkable story of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RAs) in cardiovascular medicine has been one of serendipity. Two years ago, in the European Heart Journal , we wrote that the journey of semaglutide was one such story—a drug born to lower glucose that has become the most versatile weapon against cardiometabolic-, kidney-, and obesity-related diseases. […] If one molecule makes so many things better at once, then the obvious question at the bedside becomes ‘How does it work?’.
“The conclusion of this paper is appropriately humble. Known risk factor changes could not, with any confidence, explain all of the GLP-1RA effects on major adverse cardiovascular events.
“So, in summary, while the magic of semaglutide and GLP-1RAs on cardiometabolic outcomes is real, our search for the mechanistic underpinnings continues. […] At the end of the day, mechanistic knowledge is only useful if it sharpens how we deploy these remarkable drugs to save lives. The lack of clear mechanistic understanding should not be a barrier to therapeutic adoption to reduce vascular events.”
European Heart Journal
Randomized controlled/clinical trial
People
emaglutide and cardiovascular risk reduction: a mediation analysis of the SELECT trial
24-Sep-2026
Helen M. Colhoun declares serving on advisory panels for Novo Nordisk, Roche and Bayer; receiving research funding from Sanofi, Roche, and IQVIA, and grants from Chief Scientist Office, Diabetes UK, European Commission, Juvenile Diabetes Research Foundation, and Medical Research Council; and holding stock in Roche Pharmaceuticals and Eli Lilly. A. Michael Lincoff declares having received honoraria from Akebia, Alnylam, Amgen, Ardelyx, Becton Dickson, Brainstorm Cell, Eli Lilly, Endologix, FibroGen, GlaxoSmithKline, Intarcia, Medtronic, Neovasc, Novo Nordisk, Provention Bio, and ReCor, and for consulting activities and research funding to his institution from AbbVie, AstraZeneca, CSL Behring, Eli Lilly, Esperion, and Novartis. Donna Ryan declares having received consulting honoraria from Altimmune, Amgen, Biohaven, Boehringer Ingelheim, Calibrate, Carmot Therapeutics, CinRx, Eli Lilly, Epitomee, Gila Therapeutics, Ifa Celtic, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, Rhythm, Scientific Intake, Wondr Health, and Zealand, and stock options from Calibrate, Epitomee, Scientific Intake and Xeno Bioscience. Ildiko Lingvay declares having received research grants from Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck, Mylan Pharmaceuticals Inc., Novo Nordisk, Pfizer, and Sanofi US Services Inc.; she has served as a consultant for AstraZeneca, Bayer Healthcare Pharmaceuticals Inc., Biomea, Boehringer Ingelheim, Carmot, Eli Lilly and Company, Intarcia, Intercept Pharmaceuticals, Inc., Janssen Global Services, LLC, Johnson & Johnson Medical Devices & Diagnostics Group - Latin America, L.L.C., MannKind Corporation, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Pfizer Inc., Sanofi US Services Inc., Shionogi Inc., Structure Therapeutics, Target Pharma, Valeritas, Inc., and Zealand Pharma; and has received travel expenses from Boehringer Ingelheim, Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson Medical Devices & Diagnostics Group - Latin America, L.L.C., Novo Nordisk, Sanofi US Services Inc., and Zealand Pharma A/S. Steven E. Kahn, for the period over which SELECT was conducted, declares receiving advisory board/consulting fees from AltPep, Bayer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Casma Therapeutics, Eli Lilly, Intarcia, Merck, Novo Nordisk, Oramed, Pfizer, and Third Rock Ventures. G. Kees Hovingh declares being an employee of and stakeholder in Novo Nordisk. Søren Hardt-Lindberg declares being an employee of and stakeholder in Novo Nordisk. Tugce Kalayci Oral declares being an employee of and stakeholder in Novo Nordisk. Peter E. Weeke declares being an employee of and stakeholder in Novo Nordisk. Martin Linder declares being an employee of and stakeholder in Novo Nordisk. Ales Linhart has received speakers’ fees and consultancy honoraria from Alnylam, Avrobio, Chiesi, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi-Genzyme, and Takeda. Bartolome Burguera has received honoraria related to participation on this trial, and has no financial conflicts related to this publication. André P. van Beek declares being contracted via the University of Groningen (no personal payment) to undertake consultancy for Novo Nordisk, Eli Lilly, and Boehringer Ingelheim. Jose Francisco Kerr Saraiva declares having received consulting honoraria from Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck Sharp & Dohme, Novartis, Novo Nordisk, Bayer, Lilly, Hypera, Servier, Medtronic, and Astra Zeneca. Yaron Arbel declares having received honoraria from Medtronic, Novo Nordisk, Sanofi, Amgen, and Novartis. In addition, he has received honoraria related to participation in this trial. Scott S. Emmerson declares having received consulting honoraria from Amylyx, AstraZeneca, Avillion, Ayala, Bayer, BeiGene, Boehringer Ingelheim, 89 Bio, BioAge, BioAtla, Bristol Meyers Squibb, BridgeBio, Daiichi Sankyo, Denovo, Fore Therapeutics, GlaxoSmithKline, Inovio, Insmed, Ipsen, Karuna, Lilly, Lundbeck, Mirati, Moderna, Novartis, Novavax, Novo Nordisk, NSABP, Pfizer, Principia, Reata, Rebiotx, Roche, Sanofi, SOLVD, Sutro Biopharma, and TG Therapeutics. Jorge Plutzky declares having received consulting honoraria from Altimmune, Amgen, Esperion Therapeutics, Inc., Merck, MJH Life Sciences, Novartis, and Novo Nordisk; he has received a grant, paid to his institution, from Boehringer Ingelheim, and holds the position of Director, Preventive Cardiology, at Brigham and Women's Hospital. John Deanfield declares having received consulting honoraria from Amgen, Boehringer Ingelheim, Merck, Pfizer, Aegerion, Novartis, Sanofi, Takeda, Novo Nordisk, and Bayer, and research grants from British Heart Foundation, MRC (UK), NIHR, PHE, MSD, Pfizer, Aegerion, Colgate, and Roche.