The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Many of these articles are available for early online access — they are peer-reviewed, but not yet in their final published form . Below are some recent examples of online and early-online research.
JOURNAL ARTICLES
What follows are summaries that have not been peer-reviewed or vetted by the article authors; read the full article for peer-reviewed conclusions. Please note that no single study is ever definitive, and each must be taken in the context of the broader scientific literature.
Springtime Soil Moisture Teleconnections Drive Summertime Warming in the Western United States
Journal of Climate
Dry spring soils in the Southwest mean hot summers in the western U.S. A reduction in March surface soil moisture over the U.S. Southwest causes positive May–June temperature anomalies throughout the western United States and precipitation anomalies in the Northwest, this modeling study finds. The heating of unusually dry soils drives large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies that exacerbate the near-surface warming.
Santa Ana Winds in the San Gabriel Valley and the January 2025 Eaton Fire
Weather and Forecasting
Identifying a dangerous type of Santa Ana wind. The highly destructive 2025 Eaton Fire was driven into urban areas partly by a strong Santa Ana windstorm. This paper finds that only 5% of Santa Ana days produce such strong downslope winds, and these windstorms are associated with a unique wind pattern that has been associated with major wildfires in the past. “These results define a distinct, high-impact Santa Ana subtype” that can help predict rare and hazardous wind events in the San Gabriel Valley, say the authors.
Climate Knowledge in Large Language Models
Artificial Intelligence for the Earth Systems
AI chatbots may not accurately reproduce local climate information. AI chatbots are increasingly asked to supply information about local climate. This study asked several large language models (including GPT and Gemma) to provide climate information for specific locations using only the information they were trained on initially. Chatbots captured broad temperature patterns with typical errors of 3-6°C, but struggled in mountainous areas. Providing place names alongside coordinates reduced errors by about 27%. Chatbots captured the overall magnitude of recent global warming, but could not easily reproduce the patterns of warming. The authors recommend checking chatbot-generated climate data against authoritative sources.
CROCUS Micronet: A Distributed Urban Observation System in Chicago
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Chicago implements innovative urban weather monitoring. Chicago’s CROCUS network, one of four U.S. Department of Energy Urban Integrated Field Laboratories, recently implemented a new model for high-resolution sensing of the urban atmosphere with its “Micronet.” Twelve Micronet sites—featuring different levels of sophisticated meteorological sensors—are already in operation, providing rare long-term data from lakefront rooftops, low-rise neighborhoods, and many in-between.
Winter Wave Extremes in the Nordic Seas - Dependence on NAO and Cyclone Characteristics
Journal of Climate
Predicting extreme waves in the North Atlantic. Dangerous extreme winter waves in the North Atlantic are linked to the phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) atmospheric pattern, although the effects vary geographically. This study shows that much of this variation comes from NAO-driven differences in cyclone characteristics and their effects on waves based on local geography, information useful for wave forecasting.
Using GMI Brightness Temperatures to Monitor the Global Distribution of Hydrometeor Species
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Hail and graupel occur with 30% of annual precipitation in the central U.S. A new method of identifying precipitation types using a combination of satellite and ground-based imaging was used to generate global precipitation maps. It found that in the central United States, Argentina, and portions of the Congo, hail or graupel is associated with more than 30% of total annual precipitation.
Estimating the Maximum Mean Precipitation in Hothouse Climates
Journal of Climate
The rainiest possible Earth. In “hothouse” climates with extreme warmth and almost no ice, Earth’s atmosphere holds vastly more water vapor, which slowly reduces the amount of sunlight reaching the planet’s surface. This puts a limit on the amount of evaporation possible to drive later rainfall. A simplified physical modeling study suggests that Earth’s maximum average rainfall occurs at average temperatures of 300–360 Kelvin (current average annual temperature is ~288 Kelvin), with daily average rainfall of 2.9–5.88 mm.
The 2025 Aviation Weather Mission: Cadet Engagement and Evaluation Results
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
The Aviation Weather Mission maps 1,300 airplane contrails . In NASA’s Aviation Weather Mission, volunteers from the Civil Air Patrol logged information about weather, airplane flights, and contrails visible from the ground during designated periods. The database assembled includes 1,300 registered flights and will help researchers better understand aviation weather and contrail formation factors. The mission produced a highly trained cadre of aviation weather observers.
Population Exposure to Heat Waves and its Response to Urban Green Coverage in China’s Major City Clusters
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Urban greening reduces population heat wave exposure risk in China. Population exposure to heat waves increased significantly in 10 Chinese city clusters from 1994 to 2022, especially in the eastern cities. However, city clusters with higher coverage of green space experienced heat wave dangers 67% less often and for 54% less time than clusters with less greening. However, the cooling effect was lessened in hot and humid regions of southern China.
Opportunities for Increasing Resilience to Changing Severe Weather in Southern Africa: “Early Action and Enhanced Adaptive Capacity for All”
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Challenges for African weather warnings under climate change. Early warning systems (EWS) for weather hazards are key to saving lives under climate change, yet in Africa these are typically not designed to respond to future climate hazards. In addition, they face challenges like communication gaps, lack of public trust, and the inability of vulnerable populations to respond to warnings. This paper suggests a shift toward enabling effective action and adaptation rather than simply providing warnings.
Projected Changes in Vitis vinifera Killing Freeze Events in Colorado
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Climate change may open new opportunities for wine growing in Colorado. While most of Colorado is historically too cold for viticulture, climate models suggest that a projected decrease in damaging freeze events will open new “exploration opportunities” by the mid-to-late twenty-first century. However, the extent of these opportunities is unclear and will also depend on factors like heat stress, which is projected to increase with climate change.
A Shift toward More Severe and Persistent Compound Hot–Dry Extremes across the Mongolian Plateau
Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Extreme hot-dry events have increased on the Mongolian Plateau. Compound hot–dry events became more severe, persistent, and spatially extensive on the Mongolian Plateau between 1994 and 2024, especially in the west and south. Although low-intensity events became less frequent and shorter, heavy and extreme events increased substantially, showing a need for improved monitoring, warnings, and adaptation.
Observations of the Atmosphere across the Congo Air Boundary
Journal of Climate
First observations of the Congo Air Boundary. The DRY-CAB study has produced the first detailed observations of the Congo Air Boundary (CAB), a sharp dividing line between dry and moist air across subtropical southern Africa that is present from August until the summer rains. Observations will help improve seasonal forecasting. They show that the boundary separates two starkly different air masses and changes markedly over the course of the day, acting to limit storm development near the southern edge of the African tropics.
Robust Increase in Extreme Future Precipitation in the Lake Victoria Basin Based on Km-Scale Regional Climate Projections
Journal of Climate
Extreme precipitation to increase in Africa’s Lake Victoria basin. High-resolution climate simulations, important for future planning, are largely unavailable for African regions. This study uses a computationally efficient method to examine future rainfall in the Lake Victoria basin, finding that, while changes in average precipitation are uncertain, models agree that extreme precipitation events will increase in the future.
Global Downstream River Flows and Continental Runoff: An Update to 2024
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Streamflow rates for the world’s largest rivers . This study catalogs updated monthly streamflow totals through 2024 for the world’s 936 largest rivers. Most of the 200 largest rivers show no significant streamflow trends since 1948. Of the 71 that showed a trend, 34 saw an increase and 37 saw a decrease.
Instrumental Transitions and their Impact on Precipitation Records in the Eastern U.S.
Journal of Hydrometeorology
Instrument changes may affect long-term precipitation records. Analysis of eastern U.S. rain observations from NOAA’s Local Climatological Dataset (LCD) finds that these observations—collected using a variety of measuring devices over 1975–2024—show greater variability than daily observations from NOAA’s Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) over the same period using a standard rain gauge. Studies of long-term precipitation trends should take this variability into account.
Communicating Snow Squall Risk in English and Spanish with Virtual Reality
Weather, Climate, and Society
A simulated highway tests bilingual snow squall warnings. English and Spanish speakers in a simulated driving test were given Wireless Emergency Alerts and roadside messages about snow squalls (hazardous because they can greatly reduce visibility). For those with less snow squall experience, the decision to exit the simulated highway relied more on alert messages, and the simulated squall was a valuable teaching tool. Those with more experience waited until the simulation produced heavy snow and reduced visibility before taking action—a point at which, the study notes, “it is often too late to exit the highway and avoid serious danger.”
You can view all research published in AMS Journals at journals.ametsoc.org .
The American Meteorological Society advances the atmospheric and related sciences, technologies, applications, and services for the benefit of society. Founded in 1919, AMS has a membership of around 12,000 professionals, students, and weather enthusiasts. AMS publishes 12 atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic science journals; hosts more than 12 conferences annually; and offers numerous programs and services. Visit us at www.ametsoc.org/ .
The American Meteorological Society continuously publishes research on climate, weather, and water in its 12 journals . Some AMS journals are open access. Media login credentials are available for subscription journals. Journals include the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society , Weather, Climate, and Society , the Journal of Climate , and Monthly Weather Review .