Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
A physics-based space weather prediction model is now in operation, offering a one-to-four day warning of high-speed solar plasma streams and Earth-directed coronal mass ejections. This development addresses the growing need to protect global communications infrastructure from severe space weather disruptions.
A tropical cyclone system, System 98S, is bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the northwestern coast of Western Australia. The NASA TRMM satellite has captured images of moderate to heavy rainfall in the system, with areas near Kununurra experiencing light to moderate rainfall.
Kieran T. Bhatia, a meteorology and physical oceanography doctoral student, has been awarded the 12th annual Alumni Fellow at the University of Miami's Rosenstiel School. The fellowship provides tuition and stipend support for his graduate career. Bhatia is working on research related to hurricane dynamics and development.
Researchers at the University of Wisconsin-Madison found that satellite data can significantly improve forecast accuracy for thunderstorms, which can bring intense rain, hail, lightning, and tornadoes. By incorporating upper atmosphere conditions into storm prediction models, scientists can better anticipate severe weather events.
A study by Duke University scientists found that the Bermuda High's center intensified by 0.9 geopotential meters a decade from 1948 to 2007, leading to increased summer rainfall variability in the Southeast. This intensification is attributed to anthropogenic warming and is expected to continue in coming decades.
The new fog warning system provides reliable services and saves socio-economic costs, with a forecasted cost-benefit ratio of 9.4, indicating it pays itself back ten times over within ten years. The system has demonstrated minimal service breaks and real-time functionality.
Tropical Storm Richard is expected to intensify in the western Caribbean before making landfall, bringing maximum storm totals of 5-7 inches of rain and potentially flash flooding and mudslides. Residents in eastern Honduras, Guatemala, Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula are bracing for its impacts as it approaches
Researchers used Doppler weather radar data to improve forecast models for monsoon systems, reducing landfall error from 200km to 75km. This enhancement can better prepare people for heavy rains and catastrophic floods in coastal areas of India.
Tropical Storm Nicole's remnants combined with an upper-level low pressure system, dumping record rainfall on the US East Coast. Heavy rains fell across states from New England to North Carolina, breaking records at multiple airports and cities.
Tropical Storm Nicole has weakened into a remnant low pressure area off the Florida coast. A massive trough of low pressure over the eastern seaboard is streaming tropical moisture from Nicole's remnants, bringing heavy rainfall totals to the region.
Tropical Storm Malakas is expected to strengthen as it approaches Iwo To due to cold cloud top temperatures. The storm's high sea levels and northward movement pose a threat to the island.
The TRMM satellite provided a 3-D image of Hurricane Igor's cloud heights and rainfall rates, revealing towering clouds and heavy rainfall. The image showed the eye was still distinct but the southwestern portion had eroded, with heavy rainfall falling at 2 inches per hour.
A new report examines current capabilities for making climate predictions and identifies opportunities for improvement. Improvements in observational capabilities, statistical models, and data assimilation systems are needed to better understand key processes that could help improve forecasts.
Researchers conducted 18 hurricane hunter flights, including the first flight by an unmanned NASA Global Hawk over a hurricane to study intensification. The Intensity Forecast Experiment (IFEX) incorporates data from various sources to improve forecast accuracy.
The GOES-13 satellite captured an image of Hurricane Earl northeast of North Carolina, showing a huge storm with cloud cover stretching over the northeastern U.S. The category 2 hurricane is expected to turn towards the northeast and approach southeastern New England.
Hurricane Earl is producing heavy rainfall of over 50 mm/hr in Puerto Rico as a category four hurricane with wind speeds of about 115 knots. The storm is expected to maintain intensity for the next few days, impacting the Bahamas and eastern North Carolina.
NASA's Terra satellite captured Tropical Storm Lionrock, Tropical Storm Namtheun, and Typhoon Kompasu in one image. The two storms are expected to merge, while Typhoon Kompasu is headed for a landfall in China with maximum sustained winds near 109 mph.
NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder captured an infrared image of Tropical Depression 5's (TD5) remnants on August 18, showing showers and clouds extending from Louisiana northeast into Tennessee. The strongest thunderstorms were located over south central Louisiana and north central Alabama, producing heavy rainfall.
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to Louisiana and Mississippi, with some areas experiencing localized flooding. NASA satellite imagery shows the slow-moving system stretching from Louisiana northeast into Mississippi, with some higher thunderstorms embedded in the cloud cover.
The USDA is developing a web-based fertilizer forecast tool to predict field runoff occurrence and enhance water quality. The tool uses National Weather Service data to analyze precipitation, soil moisture, and other factors.
NASA's TRMM satellite confirms better organization in Tropical Depression 5, leading to its classification as the fifth tropical depression in the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Forecasters predict strengthening into Tropical Storm Danielle in the next day or so.
A NASA-funded research scientist has developed a supercomputer model that can replicate the formation of tropical cyclones five days in advance. This breakthrough could lead to greater accuracy and earlier warnings for life-threatening storms.
Researchers at NC State University developed a new methodology that combines multiple general climate forecast models to improve the accuracy of winter precipitation and temperature forecasts. The tool is valuable for government officials, providing key information for predicting energy consumption and water availability.
Tropical Storm Conson has been downgraded to a typhoon after interacting with the northern Philippines' land surface, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph. The storm is now expected to continue weakening due to increased wind shear and interact with southern China.
Tropical Storm Conson has formed in the northwestern Pacific Ocean with maximum sustained winds near 60 knots (69 mph) and is forecast to make landfall on July 13. The storm's track is expected to take it north-northwest over the next couple of days, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the northern Philippines.
Tropical storm Alex is strengthening due to low wind shear and warm ocean surface temperatures, posing a threat of heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and storm surge to northeastern Mexico and southeastern Texas. The National Hurricane Center predicts the storm will make landfall on Wednesday, bringing potentially life-threatening conditions.
The University of Michigan predicts a larger-than-average Gulf dead zone this year, with a range of 6,500 to 7,800 square miles. The impact of the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on the size of the dead zone is unclear, but it could either increase or decrease due to various factors.
The GOES-13 satellite captured images of two major hurricanes, Celia and Darby, with Celia being a Category Five hurricane and Darby a Category Three. The storms appear to be chasing each other, with Hurricane Celia having the larger eye.
NASA satellite imagery confirms Tropical Storm Phet's intensification, featuring large areas of high cloud tops and strong convection. The storm is forecast to strengthen further and make landfall along the India-Pakistan border by the end of the week.
The National Oceanography Centre (NOC) has partnered with the Met Office to upgrade the Porcupine Abyssal Plain sustained observatory (PAP-SO), a key European ocean observatory. This collaboration aims to advance scientific knowledge of the ocean and improve climate prediction by integrating meteorological and ocean data.
A NASA 3D image reveals a thunderstorm in Cyclone Laila that reached almost 11 miles high. The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite provided data to forecasters, helping them predict rainfall and storm behavior.
Cyclone Laila has strengthened into a Category One cyclone and is affecting southern India's coastal areas. It is expected to intensify further and make landfall near Andhra Pradesh's coast on May 20.
The VORTEX2 project, the most ambitious tornado study in history, aims to surround tornadoes with an unprecedented fleet of mobile radars and cutting-edge tools. The study seeks to improve tornado warnings and short-term severe weather forecasts by examining how tornadoes form and the patterns of damage they cause.
CU-Boulder's disdrometer team will use three vehicles to measure precipitation particles in severe storms, while a UAS project aims to collect meteorological data safely navigating below clouds. The efforts aim to improve tornado forecasting and reduce fatalities.
Researchers are combining indigenous environmental knowledge with modern science to learn new things about the Arctic climate. Studies have found that weather patterns in the Arctic are becoming more unpredictable, which is not matching up with scientific measurements.
The Solomon Islands are under threat from Cyclone Ului, a powerful Category 4 cyclone affecting the islands. The storm is expected to continue tracking westward before turning southward and weakening due to increasing vertical wind shear.
Cyclone Tomas, a Category 4 cyclone, has caused damage to residents in the northern Fiji islands with heavy rainfall and strong winds. The storm's eye is cloud-filled, with very high, cold thunderstorms surrounding it.
Tropical Storm Tomas is expected to intensify over the weekend, bringing gusty winds, ocean swells, and heavy rainfall to residents of Nadi, Fiji. The storm has strengthened by 23 mph since March 11, with forecasters predicting it will weaken due to increasing wind shear from Monday or Tuesday.
The Fiji Meteorological Service has issued a tropical cyclone alert for the South Pacific islands of Wallis and Futuna, citing Tropical Storm Tomas. The storm is expected to strengthen further and become a cyclone in the next day or two.
A rare tropical cyclone system formed off Brazil's coast, exhibiting tropical storm-force winds before weakening and moving away from the area. The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite captured images of the system, which is now expected to be absorbed by a mid-latitude cold front in the next couple of days
Tropical Storm Hubert has strengthened into a low pressure system making landfall in eastern Madagascar with maximum sustained winds near 39 mph. The storm is expected to bring moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the capital city and surrounding areas.
GOES-P is the third and final spacecraft in the GOES N Series, continuously providing weather monitoring and forecast operations. The satellite will also help monitor solar conditions with its Solar X-Ray Imager instrument, improving forecasts for solar disturbances and protecting billions of dollars worth of assets.
The National Weather Service has adopted a new method for predicting snowfall density, allowing for more accurate forecasts and differentiation between powdery and wet snow. The method uses only two variables: temperature and wind speeds at mountain crest level.
Cyclone Gelane has reached category 4 strength in the Southern Indian Ocean, with sustained winds near 143 mph and a compact eye. The storm is expected to move into adverse atmospheric conditions this weekend, leading to weakening and potential rough surf along nearby islands.
Researchers at the University of Missouri are studying how increasing carbon dioxide levels and global temperatures may impact atmospheric blocking, a rare but significant weather event. They aim to improve forecasting accuracy by identifying cues that can warn people of long-lasting, severe weather.
NASA and JAXA satellite data combined with ground weather station information aid in forecasting tropical cyclone tracks. Olga's center is expected to remain over land, but Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecasts its reemergence into the Gulf of Carpentaria.
The GOES-P spacecraft is proceeding through final checks before its launch on March 1. The Imager, Sounder and Solar X-Ray Imager have completed cleaning and inspections, while optical port covers are being installed as the last mechanism to be deployed in orbit.
Tropical Storm Olga has maximum sustained winds near 39 mph and is moving northwest near 4 mph. It is expected to turn north and enter the Gulf of Carpentaria, where it will strengthen before making another landfall near the Queensland border.
Tropical Storm Laurence is forecasted to make its second landfall in Australia, impacting the northern Kimberley coast and potentially causing heavy rainfall and beach erosion. Residents in the affected areas are advised to take action in preparation for the cyclone's arrival.
Tropical Storm Bongani is forecast to head south through the Mozambique Channel and parallel the coast of Madagascar over the next 5 days. The storm has weakened due to interaction with land, but may re-intensify briefly before weakening.
A new water management framework developed by NC State University researchers can help plan for droughts or excess rain, making efficient use of water resources. By using climate forecasts, water managers can reduce vulnerability to drought and increase benefits for poor farming communities.
The University of Oklahoma is leading a $6 million NSF-funded project to develop cyberCommons, an information commons for real-time ecological data and forecasts. This will enable ecologists to predict changes in weather's impact on plant carbon use and nitrogen storage.
Tropical Storm Neki formed near Johnston Island with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph; forecasters predict strengthening into a hurricane as it moves northwest, passing close to the island on October 21.
Super Typhoon Lupit is currently packing maximum sustained winds near 132 mph and moving westward toward northern Luzon. The storm has joined the ranks of super typhoons in the Western Pacific Ocean, with forecasters expecting a landfall in the region during the afternoon hours on October 22.
Tropical Storm Rick is expected to strengthen into a hurricane over the weekend, with warm sea surface temperatures and light wind shear contributing to its growth. Residents of southern and central Baja California are advised to prepare for potential evacuations from coastal areas if the forecast holds.
Typhoon Lupit strengthened quickly from a tropical depression to a typhoon in just 24 hours. The storm's cloud temperatures were colder than minus 63F (-52.78C), indicating strong thunderstorms. Forecasts predict the northern Philippines will feel the first effects of Lupit on October 20, with residents urged to make preparations.
Tropical Storm Grace formed suddenly near the Azores Islands and is expected to merge with a non-tropical low-pressure system. The storm has sustained winds of up to 65mph and is forecasted to bring rainfall to Ireland.
The University of Oklahoma Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms has been awarded three separate grants worth nearly $3 million to enhance severe weather prediction, improve wildfire management and predict tropical cyclones. The grants will focus on next-generation supercomputing, improved model resolution and advanced data assi...
NASA's AIRS instrument captured icy clouds of Super Typhoon Melor, revealing powerful thunderstorms and wind speeds reaching 132mph. Residents are warned of damaging winds extending hundreds of miles from the storm's center.
The University of Arizona is building a network of soil moisture probes to improve short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, with funding from the National Science Foundation. The project aims to provide more accurate forecasts by measuring low-energy neutrons produced when cosmic rays hit the soil.