Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
A new Great Lakes model has been developed to improve the operational forecast system, providing more accurate predictions of water levels, temperatures, and currents. The model incorporates data assimilation techniques, which combine observational data and numerical model results to produce a more accurate estimate.
Teddy is consolidating in the Central North Atlantic Ocean with improved circulation and increasing maximum sustained winds. The storm's structure is slowly improving, with stronger thunderstorms around its core.
NASA's Aqua satellite found structural changes and the strongest side of Hurricane Paulette as it moved away from Bermuda. The storm is expected to undergo extratropical transition, weakening rapidly on Wednesday.
Tropical Depression Rene is expected to degenerate due to strong wind shear and dry air entrainment. The NASA Aqua satellite monitored cloud top temperatures, confirming the impact of wind shear on the storm's organization and strength.
NASA uses infrared data from the Aqua satellite to analyze low-pressure areas developing in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The data reveals cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong storms capable of heavy rain.
Researchers found that true forecast track error increases exponentially with lead time, implying dynamics of TC motions are linear and model-induced errors in TC position forecasts are minimal. The team's 4-parameter error model indicates potential extension of predictability limit beyond 6/8 days in 10/30 years' time.
Tropical Storm Rene appears more organized as wind shear eases, becoming slightly circular on satellite imagery. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by Saturday, Sept. 12, with no expected landfall impact.
Tropical Storm Rene, formed on September 7 in the North Atlantic, brought strong winds and heavy rain to Cabo Verde Islands. The storm's center was located near latitude 16.5 degrees north and longitude 26.5 degrees west, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph.
Tropical Storm Paulette set a new record for the earliest 16th named storm of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The storm's organization improved significantly since September 7, with forecasters noting improved convection and wind shear restrictions.
Tropical Depression Omar is being affected by persistent wind shear, which is weakening the storm's rotation and inhibiting thunderstorm development. The NASA Aqua satellite has provided temperature information about the system's clouds, confirming the presence of wind shear.
Haishen has strengthened into a Category 4 hurricane/typhoon with sustained winds near 140 knots (161 mph/259 kph), forecast to peak later on Sept. 4 and make landfall in South Korea after 3 days.
Typhoon Haishen has a 10 nautical-mile wide eye surrounded by hundreds of miles of thunderstorms, intensifying to 130 knots with forecast landfall in South Korea. NASA's Terra satellite captures visible images revealing deep convection and spiral banding.
Maysak made landfall on Sept 2 at 12 miles west of Busan, South Korea, with maximum sustained surface winds of 64 knots. The storm underwent extra-tropical transition, gaining frontal characteristics, and is forecast to deepen as a low-pressure area over North Korea and China.
Tropical Storm Omar was weakened to a depression as it continued to be battered by strong upper-level winds, according to NASA's Terra satellite imagery. The storm's wind shear pushed clouds east of the center, leading to its downgrade from a tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Omar formed on Sept. 1 off the coast of North Carolina, becoming the earliest 15th storm on record. NASA's satellite data revealed wind shear affecting the storm, causing it to strengthen and potentially generate heavy rainfall. The storm is now expected to weaken and become a remnant low-pressure area by Thursday, Sept. 3.
Researchers used Loon LLC's data from high-flying balloons to calculate gravity wave motions, finding larger waves in the tropics during summer and smaller waves near the poles during winter. The study's findings help constrain circulation responses to climate change and improve regional weather forecasts.
Tropical Storm Nana has strengthened in the Caribbean Sea, with NASA's Terra satellite analyzing cloud top temperatures to monitor its progress. The storm is expected to become a hurricane by tonight, posing warnings and watches for areas in Central America and Belize.
Hurricane Laura made landfall as a powerful Category 4 hurricane along the Louisiana coast, with sustained winds near 150 mph and a clear circular eye. NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured a nighttime image of the storm just after landfall.
Post-tropical cyclone Marco has weakened toward dissipation after passing over the Gulf of Mexico, with NASA's Terra satellite capturing its final stages. The storm made landfall near the mouth of the Mississippi River and was pushed northeast by southwesterly wind shear.
Researchers successfully predicted a 2018 dengue outbreak in Réunion using subseasonal climate forecasts and mosquito population models. The study demonstrates the potential for using climate data to predict vector-borne disease suitability.
Tropical Storm Laura continues to move through the Caribbean Sea, producing heavy rainfall and potentially life-threatening flash flooding. NASA's infrared data reveals powerful storms with cold cloud top temperatures, affecting Jamaica and Cuba.
Tropical Depression 14 is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm and potentially become a hurricane, according to NASA's Terra satellite data. The depression's coldest cloud top temperatures were as cold as minus 60 degrees Fahrenheit, generating heavy rainfall and affecting Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane Genevieve's size and strength were revealed through NASA's wide-angle photos, showing a clear eye surrounded by powerful thunderstorms. The storm's wind field expanded, affecting the Baja California peninsula with strong winds, heavy rainfall, and large ocean swells.
Tropical Storm Higos made landfall in Guangdong Province, China, with strong thunderstorms and bands of thunderstorms over the South China Sea. The storm was weakening and moving northwest, expected to dissipate within a day.
Researchers describe daily variability of key deep currents in the South Atlantic Ocean, with variations linked to climate and weather globally. The study found that upper and deeper layers behave independently, impacting sea level rise and hurricane intensification.
Tropical Storm Josephine weakened on August 16, with satellite imagery showing it had become elongated and stretched out into a trough of low pressure. The storm's cloud top temperatures were near minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating it was degenerating rapidly.
Genevieve strengthened into a hurricane, with the most powerful thunderstorms in its eyewall having coldest cloud top temperatures as low as minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm is expected to become major and bring life-threatening surf and rip current conditions to Mexico's southern coast.
Tropical Storm Josephine is being affected by southwesterly wind shear, which is pushing clouds and precipitation to the northeast of its center. This wind shear is expected to continue, potentially affecting the storm's trajectory and weakening it over the next couple of days.
Tropical Depression 10E is struggling to intensify due to strong northeasterly wind shear, according to NASA's Suomi NPP satellite imagery. The depression has maintained a small ragged band of convection in its southwest quadrant despite the adverse conditions.
Hurricane Elida's eye has become fully covered by high clouds, a sign of the storm weakening due to cooler waters. The storm is expected to weaken quickly and degenerate into a remnant low-pressure area on Thursday.
Typhoon Mekkhala made landfall in Fujian, southeastern China, generating at least 170 mm of rainfall. The storm's maximum sustained winds were near 70 knots (81 mph) at landfall.
Tropical Depression 06W is being weakened by vertical wind shear and dry air, with maximum sustained winds near 25 knots (29 mph/46 kph). The storm formed two days ago near latitude 26.1 degrees north and longitude 147.6 east.
Tropical Storm Jangmi transitioned into an extra-tropical storm on Aug. 11, located near latitude 26.9 degrees north and longitude 130.4 degrees east, about 139 miles northeast of Chinhae, South Korea. The storm had maximum sustained winds of 35 knots (40 mph) and was speeding to the north-northeast.
Tropical Depression 09E strengthened into Tropical Storm Elida, with maximum sustained winds near 65 mph and a central pressure of 995 millibars. Infrared imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite confirmed the storm's transition, revealing powerful thunderstorms with cold cloud top temperatures indicating heavy rainfall potential.
Tropical Storm Jangmi formed in the Philippines and strengthened into a tropical storm on August 9. The NASA Aqua satellite measured the storm's strength, finding the most powerful thunderstorms had cloud top temperatures as cold as -70 degrees Fahrenheit.
NASA's Aqua satellite detected strong storms southeast of Typhoon Hagupit's center due to wind shear, with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm made landfall in China's Zhejiang province with maximum sustained winds near 85 mph.
Researchers developed Ae DES to monitor and forecast environmental suitability for transmission of Zika, dengue fever, chikungunya and other diseases. The system combines multiple R0 models with climate information, generating probabilistic forecasts that are robust due to a large sample size.
A new model developed by researchers can predict tropical cyclones with improved accuracy, up to 10-30 days in advance. The model analyzes nearly a quarter of the Earth's surface and atmosphere, accounting for key factors such as warm sea surface temperatures and wind shears.
Tropical Storm Isaias is causing flooding in South and North Carolina due to heavy rain. The storm is expected to produce life-threatening flash flooding along the I-95 corridor and a risk of tornadoes from southeast Virginia to New Jersey.
Typhoon Hagupit developed an eye as it intensified, with a thick band of thunderstorms resembling a giant tail. The storm was classified as a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph.
Researchers from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed Typhoon Haikui (2012) using a multigrid NLS-4DVar method to improve radar data assimilation. This method significantly enhanced the accuracy of 12-h track and accumulated precipitation forecasts.
Tropical Storm Isaias is expected to bring heavy rain and flash flooding to the US East Coast, with NASA tracking its movement and intensity using visible and water vapor imagery. The storm's center was located near latitude 30.2 degrees north and longitude 80.1 degrees west, with estimated minimum central pressure of 994 millibars.
NASA analyzed data from its Aqua satellite, revealing high concentrations of water vapor and cold cloud top temperatures that indicate the storm's capability to produce heavy rainfall. The National Hurricane Center forecasts significant rainfall in the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and the Bahamas.
A new physics-based model, κ-scheme, predicts imminent large solar flares more reliably than previous methods. The model forecasts solar flares up to 20 hours in advance and identifies their location and energy release.
Tropical Storm Douglas has weakened significantly due to strong wind shear, which has pushed the storm's clouds away from its center. The lack of deep convection in the storm is a clear indication of weakening.
A Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) 9 has developed in the Eastern Caribbean Sea, bringing heavy rainfall and gusty winds to several islands. The National Hurricane Center has issued multiple warnings and watches, with a high formation chance of 90%.
Tropical Storm Douglas has weakened due to strong wind shear, with the strongest storms displaced from the center. The storm's cloud top temperatures have dropped as cold as minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit, leading to a rapid weakening trend over the past 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Hanna is consolidating and intensifying as it heads toward the Texas coast. The storm's minimum central pressure has increased to near 1000 millibars, with sustained winds of up to 45 mph.
Tropical Depression 8 formed in the Gulf of Mexico on July 22, exhibiting strong storms and coldest cloud top temperatures indicating heavy rainfall potential. NASA's Aqua satellite data shows the depression moving west-northwestward with a better-defined center near the northeastern end of a broadly curved convective band.
Tropical Storm Gonzalo showed slight disorganization in visible and microwave imagery from NASA's Aqua satellite. The storm is forecast to approach the southern Windward Islands on Friday night and move across them Saturday, with a possibility of becoming a hurricane.
Hurricane Douglas rapidly intensified into a category 3 hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, surrounded by powerful bands of thunderstorms. The storm's eye showed development of an eye and powerful thunderstorms circling it.
NASA's infrared data revealed strong thunderstorms with cold cloud top temperatures around Tropical Storm Douglas, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. Despite the threat, Douglas is moving westward at 15 mph and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane on July 23.
Tropical Storm Douglas is strengthening due to low wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures, with the potential to become a hurricane in the next few days. The storm's cloud tops reached as cold as minus 70 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong storms capable of generating heavy rainfall.
Tropical Depression 7E is weakening due to wind shear and cool ocean waters. The storm has lost all deep convection, with only a small patch of clouds remaining.
Tropical Depression 7E formed in the Eastern Pacific Ocean near Mexico's Baja California Peninsula and is expected to track over cool waters, weakening it. NASA's Terra satellite detected strong storms with cold cloud top temperatures, indicating potential for heavy rainfall.
The study enhances air quality numerical models by incorporating observation information and model background fields to improve prediction accuracy, particularly for pollutants with long lifespans. It shows significant benefits for PM2.5, PM10, and CO forecasts lasting more than 48 hours.
Astrocast uses satellite imagery and machine learning to predict drought conditions, providing valuable time for farmers and pastoralists to prepare. The system has been successful in forecasting changes up to ten weeks ahead with good confidence.
The COVID-19 pandemic led to a significant reduction in commercial flights, causing less accurate weather forecasts worldwide. Weather forecasts are crucial for daily life, impacting agriculture and the energy sector.
The research team created better climate model simulations that predict variation in monsoon rainfall the following season, with improved forecasts for the Indian subcontinent. The new model uses complementary satellite data to quantify the connection between snow pack characteristics and monsoon strength over the Asian monsoon region.
Tropical Depression 6E has several small areas of strong storms with cold cloud top temperatures, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The depression is expected to dissipate due to colder sea surface temperatures and lack of intensity requirements.