Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
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A new study predicts that the Southeastern United States is at high risk of extreme drought, which could expose its water-supply infrastructure to stress beyond its design limit. The researchers used short-term climate modeling forecasts to highlight the urgency of drought risk and inform policymakers' actions.
Researchers developed a framework to better predict extreme rainfall events in Mediterranean countries by analyzing weather data from 1979 to today. The study found strong relations between nine distinct atmospheric patterns and the location of extreme weather events.
Researchers analyzed temperatures from Dec. 1, 2020, to mid-January 2021, finding that warming in the Arctic and cooling in the tropical Pacific contributed to record-breaking low temperatures across 58 cities in China. The synergistic effect intensified cold air intrusions into mid-high latitudes, influencing extreme cold conditions.
Researchers have found that ECMWF's SEAS5 system accurately predicts the timing of the monsoon in India's major agricultural regions, a month in advance. This information can be crucial for farmers to prepare for unexpected heavy rainfall or extended dry periods, which regularly destroy crops in India.
Researchers have completed a multi-level hydrological tracking of the Yangtze River to investigate cloud formation during the intense mei-yu rainy season. The effort will enable more accurate forecasts of this key meteorological phenomenon in East Asia.
Researchers found that cloudy weather leads to lower investments in risky equity crowdfunding campaigns, with novice investors reacting more strongly. To mitigate this effect, entrepreneurs can target experienced investors or increase marketing efforts on cloudy days.
A group of scientists recommends four major improvements to enhance environmental observations in the Indian Ocean, a region warming faster than others. The enhancements aim to improve weather and climate forecasting for countries bordering its rim, vulnerable to climate change.
Researchers studied severe thunderstorms and lightning activity in Beijing, finding that squall lines and multi-cell thunderstorms are the main types of lightning disaster weather systems. They also discovered a strong relationship between lightning frequency and model parameters, which can be used to improve forecast accuracy.
An international research team proposes a 'glocal' approach to better predict and prevent flooding disasters by combining global forecasting with local observations. The proposed system, GHS-F, aims to provide highly detailed and consistent rain-flood information, which could help avoid some flooding damage.
A new AI model has shown promise in generating faster and more accurate weather forecasts by analyzing past weather patterns. The model uses about 7,000 times less computing power than traditional forecasting models while still simulating a year's weather around the globe.
Cristiana Stan, a George Mason University researcher, has received $195,313 from NOAA to develop a coupled ensemble weather prediction system. The system aims to improve medium-range and subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasts by refining stochastic parameterizations and improving model coupling.
Researchers developed statistical methods to track and forecast wildlife populations across borders, revealing detailed dynamics of entire populations across large spatial scales. The study's findings provide new insights into wildlife management and conservation efforts for species like brown bears, grey wolves, and wolverines.
A team of researchers found that cloud-induced infrared radiative feedback creates a localized greenhouse effect, trapping heat and accelerating the formation of tropical cyclones. This process is believed to be instrumental in the origin of many tropical storm events.
New research from Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory highlights the importance of model evaluation in neuroscience. By building and comparing several models of neural signaling, researchers found that good predictive power does not necessarily indicate a model's representation of real neural networks.
The University of Miami is collaborating with Brazilian researchers to share large-scale datasets in real time, improving weather and climate models. This collaboration will test the high-speed FABRIC infrastructure's ability to support fast data exchange.
Researchers at the University of Leeds and the Met Office have developed a predictive tool to identify regions at increased risk of tornadoes on UK cold fronts. The tool uses wind fields ahead and behind the cold front to compute a percentage probability that tornadoes will occur.
Researchers argue that current approaches to attributing extreme weather events to global warming focus too much on raising the threshold for false alarms, neglecting the importance of accurate warnings. By prioritizing probability of detection, climate scientists can strike a better balance between caution and timely warning.
Norbert regained tropical storm strength on Oct. 13, with estimated rainfall rates of up to 30mm/hour near its center. NASA's IMERG satellite product estimated rainfalls ranging from 5-15mm/hour throughout the storm.
Hurricane Delta is expected to produce significant flash, urban, and small stream flooding in Louisiana, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches. NASA's satellite rainfall product estimated rainfall rates around the center of circulation as high as 50 mm per hour.
A new tool developed by Utah State University scientists can predict drought and water flow in the Colorado River several years in advance. The model uses long-term ocean memory and associated atmospheric effects, as well as filtering effects of land systems to temper short-term precipitation events.
A new study found that including Arctic radiosonde data reduces uncertainty in forecasting hurricanes' tracks, particularly when upper-level troughs affect their movements. This improvement can lead to better preparation and mitigation of human casualties and socioeconomic losses caused by these storms.
NASA's Aqua satellite gathered water vapor data on Hurricane Delta, revealing highest concentrations of water vapor and coldest cloud top temperatures around the center of circulation. The storm is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding in the northern Yucatan Peninsula.
Typhoon Chan-hom is generating heavy rainfall with rates of up to 30 mm/h in its ragged eyewall. The storm is expected to bring significant rain to Japan, with warnings issued for the southernmost big island.
Tropical Depression 19E formed into Tropical Storm Norbert, while Marie weakened and declined. Norbert is moving northwestward with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph, while Marie will become a remnant low-pressure area within 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Chan-hom is consolidating, indicating a strengthening trend, according to NASA's infrared data. The AIRS instrument captured cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong storms with heavy rain potential.
Tropical cyclones exhibit non-uniform strength, with stronger sides extending higher into the troposphere. NASA's AIRS instrument captured cloud top temperatures of -63°F, indicating a strong storm capable of heavy rain. The storm's structure has improved since Sunday, with deep convection and a more circular shape.
Infrared light analysis from NASA's Aqua satellite shows wind shear pushing Marie's strongest storms east of the center, with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm is expected to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low by Tuesday night.
Researchers from Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology evaluate subseasonal prediction skill for heatwaves in Yangtze River basin using long-term hindcast data from three operational models. They found that superior model fidelity is crucial to predicting heatwave occurrence, intensity and duration at longer lead times.
Tropical Storm Gamma brought heavy rainfall to Yucatan Peninsula, making landfall near Tulum on Oct. 3. The storm was closely monitored due to its close proximity to hurricane strength at landfall.
Tropical Storm Chan-hom's visible image revealed an exposed low-level circulation center, while bands of thunderstorms wrapped into the partially exposed center. The storm is expected to strengthen over the next three days, potentially developing a more circular shape.
Hurricane Marie is rapidly growing stronger and more powerful, with cloud top temperatures reaching as low as -80°F. The National Hurricane Center expects Marie to become a major hurricane late on Oct. 1, with rapid strengthening forecasted.
Tropical Storm Marie is generating heavy rainfall, with estimated rates of 30-40 mm/h near its center. The storm's structure has been improving, and NASA satellite data suggests rapid intensification is likely.
Tropical Storm Kujira's strongest storms were located near its center and in a band of thunderstorms on the western side, with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit. NASA analyzed infrared imagery to determine the storm's strength and predict its potential for heavy rain.
Post-Tropical Cyclone Beta is covered in clouds stretching from Mississippi to the Carolinas, according to NASA imagery. The storm was moving slowly northeast and had decreased in pressure and wind fields by September 25.
NASA's Aqua satellite detected infrared data showing westerly vertical wind shear pushing strongest storms east of Tropical Storm Lowell's center, indicating wind shear. The storm's convection and distance from the center were on the margins of organized deep convection.
NASA estimated Post-tropical Cyclone Beta's rainfall rates as it moved over Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee, with heavy rainfall across the region expected. The storm is generating rain at a rate of 10-15 mm per hour over Alabama, while lighter rainfall rates occurred over Mississippi and Tennessee.
A Rutgers study suggests that 5G wireless networks may impact the accuracy of weather forecasts. The study found that even low levels of 5G radiation can affect precipitation and temperature predictions by up to 0.9 millimeters and 2.34 degrees Fahrenheit, respectively.
Dolphin, a tropical cyclone, transformed into an extratropical storm after passing east central Japan. The storm's wind speeds decreased to near 30 knots (35 mph) as it became quasi-stationary and fully embedded in the baroclinic zone.
Tropical Storm Lowell was impacted by moderate northwesterly wind shear, weakening its circulation and causing it to spin more slowly. The storm maintained strength with deep convection bands located east of the exposed center.
Paulette formed as Tropical Depression Seventeen and became a hurricane, then weakened into a post-tropical cyclone. NASA's Terra satellite found only one small area of convection with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 50 degrees Fahrenheit.
Tropical Storm Dolphin battled intense wind shear as it approached east central Japan. Despite strong vertical wind shear, the storm remained consolidated with strong thunderstorms and a low-level circulation center. NASA's Terra satellite captured visible images of the storm, providing valuable data for hurricane research.
Tropical Storm Lowell is moving west-northwest with increasing winds and no coastal watches in effect. NASA's Aqua satellite identified the strongest thunderstorms south of the storm's center, indicating potential for heavy rainfall. The storm's forecast suggests little change in strength over the next few days.
Tropical Storm Beta is expected to stall inland over Texas today, bringing heavy rains and flash flooding. NASA's Aqua satellite analyzed the storm using infrared data, revealing coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit.
Tropical Storm Lowell's strongest storms were located around its center and southern quadrant, with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit. Wind shear played a significant role in the storm's formation and strength, with NASA providing data to support forecasters' predictions.
Researchers at Dauphin Island Sea Lab found that pre-storm oceanic environments contribute to hurricane intensification. Marine heatwaves, like those caused by Hurricane Michael, can prime the coastal waters for extreme storm events.
Wilfred weakened into a trough in the Central Atlantic Ocean, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph and forecasters expect winds to continue decreasing. The system's interaction with an upper-level trough led to linear thunderstorm development.
Hurricane Teddy's rainfall rates were estimated at around 30 mm per hour near the center of circulation, with heavier rain showers expected across Atlantic Canada between Tuesday and Thursday. The storm is forecasted to transition into a powerful post-tropical cyclone, posing risks of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts.
Tropical Storm Dolphin formed from Tropical Depression 14W, strengthening with deep convection and organized thunderstorms. The storm is expected to move north and then northeast, potentially strengthening to 55 knots.
Tropical Depression 22 is strengthening in the Gulf of Mexico, with NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite providing infrared images. The depression is forecast to move slowly and could strengthen into a hurricane by Sunday.
A new forecasting method, developed with public input, shows increased accuracy in predicting coronal mass ejections and their impact on Earth. The Solar Stormwatch project demonstrated the value of wide-field CME imaging cameras on future space weather monitoring missions.
Subtropical Storm Alpha has formed near Portugal, with NASA's Aqua satellite capturing visible imagery of the storm. The storm is expected to move across the coast of west-central Portugal, producing 1-2 inches of rainfall and rapid weakening over land. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, with higher gusts.
Tropical Storm Noul made landfall in central Vietnam on Sept. 17 and was weakening as it moved toward Thailand. The Suomi NPP satellite captured an image of the storm over Laos, showing a shapeless appearance with a difficult-to-find low-level center.
Tropical cyclone Noul is characterized by hundreds of thunderstorms, with infrared data revealing the strongest storms are located at high altitudes. NASA's MODIS instrument detected cold cloud top temperatures as low as minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit near Noul's center.
NASA's Aqua satellite detected the strongest storms on Hurricane Teddy's western side, with coldest cloud top temperatures as low as -81 degrees Celsius. This suggests that the storm is experiencing westerly wind shear, a phenomenon that can lead to heavy rain.
A new Great Lakes model has been developed to improve the operational forecast system, providing more accurate predictions of water levels, temperatures, and currents. The model incorporates data assimilation techniques, which combine observational data and numerical model results to produce a more accurate estimate.
Teddy is consolidating in the Central North Atlantic Ocean with improved circulation and increasing maximum sustained winds. The storm's structure is slowly improving, with stronger thunderstorms around its core.
NASA's Aqua satellite found structural changes and the strongest side of Hurricane Paulette as it moved away from Bermuda. The storm is expected to undergo extratropical transition, weakening rapidly on Wednesday.
Tropical Depression Rene is expected to degenerate due to strong wind shear and dry air entrainment. The NASA Aqua satellite monitored cloud top temperatures, confirming the impact of wind shear on the storm's organization and strength.
NASA uses infrared data from the Aqua satellite to analyze low-pressure areas developing in the eastern Atlantic Ocean. The data reveals cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit, indicating strong storms capable of heavy rain.
Researchers found that true forecast track error increases exponentially with lead time, implying dynamics of TC motions are linear and model-induced errors in TC position forecasts are minimal. The team's 4-parameter error model indicates potential extension of predictability limit beyond 6/8 days in 10/30 years' time.