Most but not all Texas coaches say they’ll plan for climate change
A survey of Texas coaches and athletic officials revealed that many are aware of the risks of outdoor workouts during extreme heat, but some don
Weather Forecasting
Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Human activities increase likelihood of more extreme heatwaves, researchers find
A recent study found that greenhouse gases are the primary reason for increased temperatures and will likely continue to be the main contributing factor. Simulations show that extreme heatwave events will increase by over 30 percentage points in coming years, primarily due to human-caused emissions.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 22, 2022
North Atlantic temperature helps forecast extreme events in Northeast Brazil up to 3 months in advance
A study by Brazilian, Chinese, Australian, and German researchers found that North Atlantic temperature can predict reduced rainfall and intense droughts in the Northeast region of Brazil. The findings suggest a more persistent influence of the North Atlantic than previously thought.
SourceFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·DateJul 21, 2022
How well can weather experts predict unprecedented heatwaves?
Researchers evaluated the prediction of a record-breaking heatwave in the Pacific Northwest, finding that forecasts were able to accurately predict the event. The study highlights the importance of trust, preparedness, and early action when extreme weather is forecasted.
Study predicts growth in UK wine production due to climate change
A study predicts UK wine production will increase due to climate change, with areas in England and Wales becoming suitable for sparkling wine grape varieties. The research highlights the potential for high-quality still wine production, particularly for Pinot Noir and other disease-resistant varieties.
Ozone depletion over North Pole produces weather anomalies
Researchers found a correlation between Arctic ozone depletion and extreme weather events in the Northern Hemisphere. Simulations suggest that reduced ozone levels contribute to warmer temperatures and droughts in central Europe, while wet conditions prevail in polar regions.
Volcano’s eruption will help scientists plot weather, climate
Researchers analyzed the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcano's eruption to understand its effects on atmospheric waves. The blast provided an unprecedented view of atmospheric waves, allowing scientists to better predict the weather and climate.
With changing climate, global lake evaporation loss larger than previously thought
Researchers created a dataset quantifying trends of evaporative water loss from 1.4 million global lakes and artificial reservoirs, revealing a 15.4% increase in long-term lake evaporation volume. This finding highlights the importance of accurate information for water management decision-makers in addressing climate change impacts.
Nor'easters rivaling hurricanes as flood threat to the Mid-Atlantic
A new study reveals that Nor'easters produce flood levels just as severe as hurricanes, but occur much more frequently in the Mid-Atlantic region. The intense storms can cause significant damage and disruption along the coastline, with some events surpassing those from tropical cyclones.
Economics study calculates more accurate wind forecasts net $150 million in energy savings every year
A recent study by Colorado State University economists and NOAA found that improved wind forecasts result in significant energy savings for consumers. The research shows a net gain of over $150 million in annual savings through better predictions of wind patterns.
SourceColorado State University·JournalJournal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy·TypeMeta-analysis·DateJun 1, 2022
Scientists develop method for seasonal prediction of Western wildfires
Researchers developed a method to predict Western wildfire severity based on winter and spring climate conditions. The study found that April snowpack has a persistent influence on land and atmosphere during the summer, making it more conducive for fires.
SourceNational Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research·JournalEnvironmental Research Letters·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMay 24, 2022
Next-generation weather models cross the divide to real-world impact
Researchers used TACC supercomputers to evaluate latest severe weather forecast tools, testing their performance in real-world settings. The goal was to improve snowfall forecasts and determine optimal model combinations to predict various winter weather aspects.
SourceUniversity of Texas at Austin, Texas Advanced Computing Center·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateMay 18, 2022
Scientists hone long-range forecasting of US tornadoes, hail
Scientists identified three atmospheric phenomena orientations near the equator that increase US severe weather event probabilities three to four weeks later. Using machine learning, they found correlations between MJO fluctuations and U.S. severe weather weeks after the event.
SourceNorthern Illinois University·Journalnpj Climate and Atmospheric Science·TypeObservational study·DateMay 18, 2022
Improved wind forecasts save consumers millions in energy costs
Researchers found that improved wind forecasts resulted in at least $384 million in energy savings for US consumers over the last decade. The study used NOAA's HRRR model to compare forecast accuracy and quantify cost savings.
SourceAmerican Institute of Physics·JournalJournal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy·DateMay 17, 2022
World’s ocean is losing its memory under global warming
The world's ocean is losing its year-to-year memory due to global warming, making it harder to predict ocean conditions. This decline in ocean memory will have significant impacts on fisheries management, population estimates, and land-based weather forecasts.
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalScience Advances·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMay 6, 2022
Study develops framework for forecasting contribution of snowpack to flood risk during winter storms
A new study provides a framework for predicting snowpack runoff and its impact on flood risk during rain-on-snow events. By leveraging hourly data from existing snow monitoring stations, researchers have created a decision support tool that can help water managers prepare for potential flooding.
New portal improves forecasts of devastating storms in West Africa
A new online portal developed by UKCEH enables forecasters to provide communities with more reliable warnings about large storms in the Sahel region. The portal uses state-of-the-art weather forecast models to predict storm behavior, taking into account factors such as land surface temperatures, soil moisture, and atmospheric humidity.
New method can predict summer rainfall in the Southwest months in advance
Scientists developed a method to estimate summer rainfall in the Southwest months in advance, performing well in Arizona. By analyzing lower atmosphere moisture, they created monthly forecasts to aid reservoir storage and water allocation decisions.
SourceNational Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateApr 28, 2022
Finding Terra Incognita
A team of scientists has developed a solution to accurately simulate how the atmosphere works by linking large- and small-scale simulations. This helps model winds, transport of pollutants, climate projections, and weather forecasts with greater accuracy.
SourceKing Abdullah University of Science & Technology (KAUST)·JournalMonthly Weather Review·DateApr 26, 2022
Kauai’s 2018 record-setting rain caused by a series of supercell thunderstorms
A severe rainstorm over Kauai in April 2018 resulted in $180 million in damage and 532 homes destroyed. The study found that supercell thunderstorms triggered the deluge, which set a new US 24-hour rainfall record of nearly 50 inches.
SourceUniversity of Hawaii at Manoa·JournalMonthly Weather Review·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateApr 21, 2022
Using vertical sounding data to forecast Zonda wind in the Andes region
Researchers used vertical sounding data to improve forecasting of Zonda windstorms, a severe weather phenomenon affecting Argentina's agricultural communities. By analyzing atmospheric profiles and applying principal component analysis, they achieved reliable forecasts with up to 24 hours of lead time.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateApr 11, 2022
How do waves form in the sea?
Tel Aviv University researchers develop innovative model that explains wave formation, tested in complex experiments. The model takes into account all unstable harmonics and limitations of previous models, providing high reliability for describing physical situation.
New NV Energy Foundation grant will support wildfire preparedness in Nevada
A $150,000 grant from the NV Energy Foundation will support DRI's development of a Weather and Research Forecast model to simulate weather, fire, and smoke for firefighting operations. The tool will provide critical air quality forecasts and risk assessment for specific locations.
Artificial hail for more accurate weather forecasts
Researchers at Mainz University created artificial hailstones using a 3D printer to study their behavior in a vertical wind tunnel. The experiments revealed that the form of hailstones determines their velocity before impact, which can affect the severity of precipitation events.
SourceJohannes Gutenberg Universitaet Mainz·JournalJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences·DateMar 25, 2022
Classifying weather to tease out how aerosols influence storms
A new machine learning study analyzed 10 years of weather data to identify three major categories of weather patterns and their effects on thunderstorms. The study aims to isolate the impact of aerosols, tiny particles suspended in the atmosphere, on storm severity.
SourceDOE/Brookhaven National Laboratory·JournalJournal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres·TypeObservational study·DateMar 21, 2022
Texas cold snap highlights need for improved power systems
The Texas cold snap highlighted the critical role of electricity in society and the need for improved power system planning to withstand extreme weather events. The event showed that traditional planning based on historical weather patterns is not sufficient, and new information from climate projection models is needed.
Snow measurement technology evaluated in new report
The Bureau of Reclamation released a new report evaluating current and emerging snow measurement technologies to enhance water supply forecasting. The report identifies under-utilized emerging technologies with potential to improve forecast accuracy in the near term.
New study questions explanation for last winter’s brutal U.S. cold snap
A new study questions a widely-held theory that sudden stratospheric warming caused the extreme cold weather in Texas and other parts of the US. The research suggests that the polar vortex's disruption, which occurred six weeks after the initial warming event, was not significant enough to impact the weather.
SourceNational Center for Atmospheric Research/University Corporation for Atmospheric Research·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateMar 7, 2022
Ocean and extreme events: better forecasting for a better prepared society
Researchers assess predictive skills of ocean heat content in two state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting systems, finding potential to predict sub-surface warming up to two seasons in advance. This could aid mitigation of extreme events and provide early warnings for industries such as aquaculture and fishing.
SourceCMCC Foundation - Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change·JournalClimate Dynamics·DateMar 1, 2022
OU meteorologist’s cloud research recognized by National Science Foundation
A $763,930 NSF CAREER Award is supporting OU meteorologist Scott Salesky's project to improve cloud representation in weather and climate models. The research aims to better understand interactions between turbulence and clouds, with potential applications for predicting precipitation and understanding Earth's climate.
The jet stream that brought in Storm Eunice is moving northwards
A new study reveals a significant shift in the Northern Hemisphere jet stream position, increasing by up to 330 km and speed by 8% during 1871-2011. This shift is linked to warming Arctic winters and decreased temperature gradients, with implications for climate predictions and storm activity.
SourceUniversity of Southampton·JournalClimate Dynamics·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateFeb 22, 2022
New sea ice fragmentation module to help improve climate model predictions
A new project aims to determine the role of sea ice fragmentation in accelerating Arctic ice-cap retreat. By combining observations, theory, and process modeling, researchers hope to improve climate model accuracy.
Predicting and preparing for the impact of approaching storms
Researchers developed a new model to predict storm damage, allowing for effective resource allocation and reduction in societal consequences. The framework can be applied to various infrastructure systems and weather events, promoting better preparedness and response.
SourceNewcastle University·JournalClimate Risk Management·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateFeb 18, 2022
Applying the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0 (NUIST-CFS1.0) to seasonal precipitation forecasts across East Africa
The NUIST-CFS1.0 model has positive skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts across Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, with relatively accurate products throughout the rest of East Africa.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateFeb 9, 2022
How machine learning can improve food insecurity predictions
Researchers found that machine learning models can help predict village food insecurity outcomes in Sub-Saharan African countries. The models incorporate publicly available data on weather, geography, and food prices to capture a wide variety of factors that can influence food insecurity. Key takeaways include the need for interpretabl...
SourceUniversity of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences·JournalApplied Economic Perspectives and Policy·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateFeb 2, 2022
Microwave data assimilation improves forecasts of hurricane intensity, rainfall
A new technique combining microwave data with existing computer weather forecast models reduced forecast errors for Hurricane Harvey, improving track, intensity, and rainfall forecasts. This could lead to better warnings and preparedness for tropical cyclone-associated hazards.
New simulations can improve avalanche forecasting
Researchers developed a new avalanche forecasting method using computer simulations of snow cover, which can detect weak layers and identify hazard in a different way. The approach showed consistent results with observed frequencies over 16 years, offering potential to support forecasting in the future.
Air pollution from wildfires, rising heat affected 68% of US West in one day
A recent study found that large wildfires and severe heat events worsen air pollution across the western United States, affecting 68% of the region's population in one day. The study revealed an increasing trend in days with high levels of both particulate matter and ozone, tied to rising temperatures and wildfires.
SourceWashington State University·JournalScience Advances·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateJan 6, 2022
Low-cost drone offers opportunity to expand data acquisition coverage in polar regions
Scientists use a modified drone with a radiation shield to collect high-quality atmospheric data in polar regions. The study shows that the low-cost drone provides accurate data comparable to radiosondes, expanding the observational network and improving weather forecasts.
SourceResearch Organization of Information and Systems·JournalEnvironmental Research·DateJan 4, 2022
Summer rains in American Southwest are not your typical monsoon
Detailed supercomputer simulations show that the North American monsoon occurs when Mexico's Sierra Madre Occidental mountains divert the eastward-trending jet stream toward the equator, cooling moist tropical air until it condenses and falls as rain. This new understanding will impact forecasts in the region.
SourceUniversity of California - Berkeley·JournalNature·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 30, 2021
The formation of the North American Monsoon: a unique case in the world
The North American Monsoon originates from the interaction of mountain ranges with extratropical atmospheric circulation, deflecting the jet stream and generating a stationary wave. This unique case has implications for models forecasting heavy rainfall events brought by the monsoon.
High impact climate events: Better adaptation through earlier prediction
A new prediction framework can forecast extreme climate events like floods and heatwaves up to two days in advance, allowing for crucial preparation time. This network-based approach analyzes large-scale connectivity patterns in observational data to improve forecasting accuracy.
SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 15, 2021
'Mountain Rain or Snow' seeks citizen scientists and winter storm reports
The Mountain Rain or Snow project collects observations of rain, snow, and mixed precipitation from across mountainous regions. Volunteers can submit their own reports via smartphone or computer to improve satellite monitoring and model predictions, leading to better weather forecasts, skiing conditions, and avalanche risk assessments.
Global temperatures over last 24,000 years show today's warming 'unprecedented'
A University of Arizona-led study reconstructs Earth's climate since the last ice age, highlighting unprecedented global temperatures and the speed of human-caused warming. The research combines two independent datasets to create a more complete picture of past temperatures.
Better hurricane forecasts from use of infrared satellite measurements of cloudy skies
A recent survey reveals a new method using cloud-cleared radiances improves forecasting of high-impact weather events like hurricanes and typhoons. The technique is now being applied to numerical models for enhanced daily forecasts.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateNov 3, 2021
Inclusion of small, sharp landscape contrasts refines weather forecasts
Environmental engineers at Duke University demonstrated that sharp contrasts in small landscape features refine local weather developments and influence climate trends. The study suggests that incorporating detailed data can improve forecast accuracy.
SourceDuke University·JournalJournal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateOct 28, 2021
Scientists discover how forest fires influence rain cloud formation in the Amazon
A Brazilian study reveals that forest fires and wildfires modify the freezing process of cloud droplets, altering natural cloud functioning and potentially impacting precipitation. The research used a large dataset to show that aerosols emitted by fires can affect cloud formation in southern Amazonia during the rainy season.
SourceFundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo·JournalNature Communications·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateOct 27, 2021
Nearly 6 million children are driven into severe hunger by the hot, dry shifts of a strong el Niño
A study in Nature Communications finds that strong El Niño events can drive nearly 6 million children into undernutrition, affecting 70% or more of children globally. Proactive climate action could prevent this tragedy by providing targeted interventions to vulnerable areas.
Artificial intelligence brings better hurricane predictions
A new machine learning approach has been developed by researchers at the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to improve hurricane intensity predictions. The model uses artificial intelligence techniques and can run on a commercial laptop, offering more accurate forecasts than existing models. It also enables th...
SourceDOE/Pacific Northwest National Laboratory·JournalWeather and Forecasting·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateSep 22, 2021
China launches world’s first early morning meteorological monitoring satellite
The new Fengyun-3E satellite provides 100% global data coverage, with 11 instruments on board to observe cloud, radiation, and more. China joins Europe and the US in sharing a global responsibility for early morning orbit observations.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateSep 17, 2021
Better weather forecasting through satellite isotope data assimilation
A new study incorporated water vapor isotope compositions into a general circulation model to improve forecast accuracy by several percentage points. The Isotope-incorporated Global Spectral Model (IsoGSM) demonstrated improved modeling of air temperature and specific humidity.
SourceInstitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo·JournalScientific Reports·DateSep 14, 2021
Public will pay over $500 million a year for hurricane forecast improvements, study finds
A recent survey of people affected by hurricanes found that the public is willing to pay more than $500 million a year for improved hurricane forecasts. The study also found that wind speed forecast is the most valuable improvement, with an average willingness to pay of $28.89 per household per year.
SourceUniversity of Miami Rosenstiel School of Marine, Atmospheric, and Earth Science·JournalBulletin of the American Meteorological Society·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateSep 13, 2021
Scientists solve mystery of icy plumes that may foretell deadly supercell storms
Researchers at Stanford University have discovered the physical mechanism behind icy plumes that precede severe thunderstorms and potentially deadly tornadoes. The study reveals a hydraulic jump phenomenon triggered by fluid obstacles in the atmosphere, leading to rapid water vapor injection into the stratosphere.
Think climate change is bad for corn? Add weeds to the equation
Researchers found that late-season weeds had a significant impact on corn yields, with minimal control resulting in an average loss of 50% and exacerbating crop losses under hot or dry conditions. The study suggests that climate change is not the only factor affecting corn yield, but rather its interaction with weeds.
SourceUniversity of Illinois College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences·JournalGlobal Change Biology·DateSep 7, 2021
Protecting Earth from space storms
Researchers are working to improve space weather forecasting to prevent power grid damage and satellite communications disruptions. The University of Michigan's Space Weather Modeling Framework uses a global representation of Earth's Geospace environment to predict magnetic disturbances on the ground.
SourceUniversity of Texas at Austin, Texas Advanced Computing Center·JournalEos·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateAug 11, 2021
Weather researcher at the University of Oklahoma receives NSF CAREER Award
Naoko Sakaeda, a University of Oklahoma weather researcher, has received a $652,000 NSF CAREER award to study tropical meteorology and improve global weather forecasting. Her research aims to better understand the dynamics of tropical clouds and precipitation at various scales.
Ultramarathon Mountain Race weather was predicted; impact was not
Researchers found that high-impact weather events can be extreme, especially in context of human activities. Detailed hypothermia risk forecasts were not available for the race site, contributing to tragedy. The study highlights the need for improved warning systems and collaborations among scientists, governments, social media, and ci...
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 30, 2021
Applying artificial intelligence to better predict real weather
Researchers developed an AI method called CU-net to improve weather forecast accuracy by learning from uncertainty. The model corrected four weather variables and showed improved performance using 10-year data, promising innovative diagnostics for climate variability.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 29, 2021
Improved prediction of Indian Monsoon onset three months in advance using machine learning
Climate scientists have developed an improved three-month preseasonal forecast for the Indian monsoon onset using machine learning. The predictions show accuracy of +/- 4.8 days and cover climate changes since 1948, offering a promising basis for future research.
SourceUniversity of Copenhagen - Faculty of Science·JournalEnvironmental Research Letters·DateJul 6, 2021
Scientists observe the dynamics behind the exceptional summer 2020 Yangtze River rainfall seasonal projections
Researchers attribute the record-breaking meiyu rainfall in the Yangtze River basin to an anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high pressure system. This pressure system's change and associated air-sea interactions were found to be independent of ENSO, providing accurate forecasts despite neutral ENSO conditions.
SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJun 29, 2021