Articles tagged with Weather Forecasting
Cold pools can trap pollutants, reduce wind speeds, and cause freezing rain, posing serious health risks in urban areas. The study aims to improve forecasting of these events to ensure a stable electrical grid and lower energy costs.
Tropical cyclone 18P has organized into a tropical depression near American Samoa, with maximum sustained winds of 30 knots. It is forecast to intensify into a tropical storm by Feb. 22 and then dissipate due to vertical wind shear.
A new international advisory system is working to keep aircraft crew and passengers safe from space weather impacts. The system predicts disruptions from solar activity and helps airlines adjust flight paths to minimize impacts on navigation and communications systems.
A new study verified multi-system forecasts for major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs), showing that all four systems can be judged skilled for five-day forecasts when averaged across available MSSWs. Longer lead times present challenges, with some systems skillful but others not.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of Tropical Cyclone Francisco re-developing a rounded shape with thunderstorms spiraling into its center. The storm is expected to make landfall over Madagascar and weaken as it tracks inland, dissipating on Feb. 15.
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Uesi continues to generate moderate rainfall in its southern quadrant, with the heaviest rates found south of the center. The system is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to the west and south of the South Island on Sunday and early Monday.
Researchers at Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz have developed an algorithm that can solve complex problems with remarkable facility on a personal computer. The SPA algorithm enables accurate weather forecasts with a prediction error of only 0.75 degrees Celsius, surpassing the performance of supercomputers.
Heavy rainfall was detected southwest of Tropical Cyclone Uesi's center by NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission. Rainfall rates reached up to 1.6 inches per hour in some areas, with scattered light rain falling at slower rates in other regions.
NASA's Terra satellite has detected a strengthening Tropical Cyclone Uesi, affecting New Caledonia with heavy rainfall and gusty winds. The storm is moving southwards, pulling away from Vanuatu but still generating powerful thunderstorms.
A new study reveals that tropical cyclones can create drying effects in the Maritime Continent due to induced zonal wind anomalies. Observational data shows that these events decrease precipitations in the region not directly affected by typhoons, highlighting their role in regional climate patterns.
Wind shear is displacing deep convection about 125 nautical miles to the southeast, causing elongation and weakening the storm. The JTWC expects Francisco will continue moving to the southeast until it dissipates.
Tropical Cyclone Damien has formed off the Pilbara coastline of Western Australia, with NASA's Terra satellite providing visible images. The storm is expected to continue intensifying as it tracks west-southwest, with severe impacts forecast for the Pilbara coast on Saturday.
Tropical Cyclone Francisco formed on Feb 5, 2020, with powerful thunderstorms and shallow banding wrapping into the center. The storm is forecast to intensify slightly before weakening over the next day and a half, moving southeastward.
Rice University engineers developed a deep learning system that uses capsule neural networks to predict extreme weather events, such as heat waves and winter storms, with high accuracy. The system achieves 85% accuracy in five-day forecasts by identifying patterns in pressure systems and regional areas.
A WVU engineer is developing a new model to improve understanding of energy transfer between the sun's solar wind and Earth's magnetosphere. The goal is to create more accurate space weather forecasts to prevent devastating effects on power grids and technology.
A self-learning heating control system has been developed by Empa researchers, allowing for energy savings of up to 25% in residential buildings. The system uses machine learning and weather forecasts to optimize temperature settings, providing greater comfort while reducing energy consumption.
Researchers found that subseasonal forecasts can provide significant economic value for agribusiness players, allowing them to adjust purchase times or adopt adaptation strategies. The potential forecast economic value is around 60% for two-week forecasts, increasing to up to 20% for six-week forecasts.
A UBC study reveals people's worries about smart speakers extend to their housemates accessing devices, ordering online, or overhearing conversations. Researchers found that users' mental models of how smart speakers work influence their attitudes towards shared devices.
Tropical Cyclone 09S formed on Jan 22 despite wind shear, but was weakened and eventually dissipated by the same force. The storm's rapid deterioration was attributed to increasing wind shear and movement into cooler waters.
Researchers develop new method to predict rapid intensification in tropical cyclones using the Synchronization Index, which measures vertical structure coherence. This index helps forecasters monitor vortex structure and understand processes influencing rapid intensification.
Researchers at the University of Tokyo and Kozo Keikaku Engineering Inc. have introduced a method for enhancing the power of existing algorithms to forecast the future of unknown time series by combining suboptimal forecasts. This approach was tested on real-world flood data and theoretical equations with chaotic behavior, resulting in...
Satellite data revealed that Tropical Cyclone Claudia was weakening, with stronger storms located on the western side. Cloud top temperatures around -63 degrees Fahrenheit indicate strong storms capable of heavy rain, but are now warming due to reduced air uplift.
Tropical Storm Claudia weakened due to wind shear and dry air, with maximum sustained winds dropping to 47 mph. The storm continued to appear elongated from NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite imagery.
Tropical Storm Claudia is battling strong vertical wind shear as it moves away from Western Australia and through the Southern Indian Ocean. The storm's shape, elongated from west to east, provides forecasters with an idea of its organization and strength.
Tropical Storm Blake is moving south and is expected to make landfall near Wallal Downs early Wednesday morning. The storm's center was located just off shore from Bidyadanga, with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph (47 mph) on January 7.
Tropical Cyclone Blake has a high potential for creating heavy rain due to its cloud top temperatures being as cold as -81 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm is currently located north of Western Australia and is forecasted to make landfall east of Port Hedland within the next 24 hours.
NASA's Suomi NPP satellite provided a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Sarai, showing a weaker storm near Tonga. The storm is rapidly weakening and dissipating under adverse atmospheric conditions.
Tropical Storm Calvinia has moved south of the island of Mauritius in the Southern Indian Ocean, with a tropical cyclone warning class III still in effect. The storm is expected to turn southeast and strengthen to 65 knots, eventually becoming extra-tropical after January 1.
Tropical Storm Sarai continues to move further away from Fiji and towards Tonga, with rough surf, tropical storm force winds, and heavy rains expected for both islands. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center forecasts the storm will curve to the northeast and pass just north of Tonga and Niue over the next several days.
Tropical Cyclone Calvinia formed on Dec 29 and covered the island of Mauritius with bands of thunderstorms by Dec 30. The storm's organized shape indicated a high level of organization.
Phanfone is weakening due to dry air and vertical wind shear, leading to its elongation. The storm's maximum sustained winds have dropped to 50 knots, with forecasters expecting it to dissipate by Dec. 29.
A study found that tropical conditions, rather than the Arctic stratosphere, influence three out of four main winter weather patterns in North America. This discovery provides forecasters with an additional tool to predict high-impact weather during winter.
NASA analyzed Tropical Storm Sarai's cloud top temperatures to determine its strength and identify areas of heavy rain potential. The analysis showed coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as -81 degrees Celsius, indicating strong storms capable of creating heavy rain.
NASA's Terra satellite captured images of Tropical Storm Phanfone, revealing maintained circular shape and thunderstorm bands. The storm is forecast to weaken and move toward Hainan Island, China.
Tropical Storm Sarai has formed near Fiji, with maximum sustained winds near 35 knots (40 mph/65 kph) and a band of thunderstorms wrapping into its low-level center. The cyclone is expected to intensify as it passes southwest of Fiji, with the Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicting steady intensification to 65 knots.
Researchers have developed a forecasting system using deep learning algorithms to predict shellfish toxicity, enabling the industry to prepare and adjust harvest timing. The system has shown high accuracy in predicting oncoming toxicity events, which can cause significant disruptions to the state's seafood industry.
Tropical Storm Belna weakened after landfall in Madagascar, with NASA's Aqua satellite finding a smaller area of strong storms. The storm's cloud top temperatures indicated strong storms capable of generating heavy rain, but the area of intense storms diminished over time.
Cold cloud top temperatures detected by NASA's Aqua satellite suggest that Tropical Storm Belna has the potential to generate heavy rainfall. The storm made landfall on Dec. 9 in Madagascar with strong winds and rainfall observed.
Researchers have made a breakthrough in predicting June rainfall in the lower Yangtze River Basin with four-month accuracy. The Met Office's seasonal forecasting system successfully identifies variations in mei-yu rainfall linked to atmospheric circulation patterns.
A UM-led experiment has shown promise in improving subseasonal weather forecasting, providing critical lead time for natural hazards like heat waves and polar vortex. The SubX project aims to provide better subseasonal forecasts to the National Weather Service, using complex computer models and large data infrastructure.
Tropical Cyclone Ambali rapidly intensified after forming as a tropical depression, reaching hurricane status on Dec. 5 with maximum sustained winds of 81 mph/130 kph.
Tropical Cyclone 02S is strengthening and consolidating as it moves west-southwest towards Madagascar. The storm's shape and organization indicate a shift from weakening to strengthening, with NASA monitoring its progress using satellite data.
Research on warm-sector heavy rainfall (WSHR) in China has revealed its association with specific synoptic patterns and topography factors in South China. However, WSHR events in other regions are less understood, leading to inaccurate forecasts.
Tropical Storm Pawan, located near latitude 9.5 degrees north and longitude 55.9 degrees east, is moving to the west with maximum sustained winds of 40 knots (45 mph/74 kph). The storm is expected to weaken over the next day as it approaches Somalia.
Researchers at Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT) discover that subsiding air parcels from the Atlantic Ocean, rather than hot air from the Sahara, are responsible for extreme hot spells in central Europe. This finding has significant implications for developing early warning systems and improving forecasts.
Tropical Storm Kammuri's center of circulation is nearly centered in the South China Sea, with a tail of clouds streaming over Luzon and northern Philippines. The storm appears to be elongating, indicating weakening, as forecasters predict it will dissipate by December 6.
A study by researchers at Scripps Institution of Oceanography found that atmospheric river storms (ARs) pose a significant flood risk in the West, causing nearly $51 billion in damages over 40 years. The majority of these damages were caused by just ten ARs, with some areas experiencing over 99% of flood damage from ARs.
Tropical Storm 07A develops with very high and powerful storms, with cloud top temperatures as cold as minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm is expected to move northwest and dissipate in a day or so, posing no significant threat to Mumbai, India.
A new machine learning tool can analyze massive amounts of satellite data to detect significant features for space weather. The algorithm identifies patterns that humans may miss, enabling faster and more accurate forecasts.
Typhoon Kammuri continues to strengthen with a noticeable increase in its central dense overcast (CDO), indicating some strengthening of the storm. The storm's maximum sustained winds have increased to 85 mph, and it is forecast to make landfall in the central and northern Philippines on Dec. 3.
Tropical Storm Kammuri's powerful storms have been detected by NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite, with cloud top temperatures reaching minus 80 degrees Fahrenheit. The storm is forecast to intensify and potentially become a typhoon, posing a threat to Guam and the Northern Marianas.
NASA used infrared data from its Aqua satellite to identify the storm's strongest areas, where coldest cloud top temperatures were recorded. The research indicates that these cold temperatures are indicative of strong storms capable of producing heavy rain.
Tropical Storm Kammuri is consolidating and strengthening, with maximum sustained winds reaching 45 mph. The storm will move west-northwest, potentially intensifying into a typhoon by Thursday. NASA's JPSS-1 satellite provides critical forecast data.
Extra-Tropical Storm Sebastien has transitioned from a tropical storm, coupling with a cold front and headed for the United Kingdom. The storm is forecast to affect southern England, with potential for heavy rain and flooding over the next several days.
Tropical Storm Sebastien is being pushed towards becoming a hurricane due to strong winds and low pressure. NASA's Terra satellite has captured images showing the storm's clouds and showers have been displaced by wind shear, weakening its rotation.
NASA's Terra satellite captured an image of Tropical Storm Fung-Wong, showing strong thunderstorms around its low-level center. The storm is moving north and weakening rapidly, with maximum sustained winds of 55 knots (63 mph/102 kph).
Tropical Storm Fung-Wong is becoming more organized and symmetrical, indicating strengthening. The storm is forecast to strengthen to 55 knots within 24 hours before weakening rapidly near Taiwan.
NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement mission provides near-real-time rain estimates for Tropical Storm Sebastien, revealing moderate rainfall rates of up to 17.0 mm/hour east of the center. The storm is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days and be absorbed by a cold front on Friday.
NASA's Aqua satellite captured an image of newly formed Tropical Storm Sebastien northeast of the Leeward Islands in the Atlantic Ocean. The storm is moving northwest at 8mph and may strengthen slightly over the next day.
Typhoon Kalmaegi is affecting the northern Philippines with signal warnings in effect. The NASA Terra satellite captured an image of the storm, revealing its oblong eye covered by high clouds. Forecasters predict the storm will weaken as it moves into the South China Sea.