Articles tagged with Elections
A Yale University study reveals that conversion among swing voters was the primary factor behind Donald Trump's electoral success in 2016. The researchers found that voters switching from Democrat to Republican more consistently explained the GOP's gains than did increases in voter turnout.
A new study by Cornell University researchers has found a positive association between exposure to televised campaign ads and reported diagnoses of anxiety among U.S. adults. The study analyzed two large national datasets and found that increased ad exposure was linked to higher odds of being diagnosed with anxiety.
A study found that exposure to partisan news increased knowledge of recent events but decreased trust in mainstream media. Increased browsing on homepage websites was also observed.
Bright Line Watch finds strong bipartisan support for a new COVID-19 relief package, with Republican voters favoring a $500 billion pandemic appropriation over opposition by 11 points. However, partisan divides remain on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election results and former President Donald Trump's second impeachment.
A Yale-led study found that at least 4% of registered voters in Wisconsin were incorrectly identified as having changed addresses, potentially disenfranchising them. Minority voters were twice as likely to cast ballots using their original address after being flagged as movers.
A study of 30 pre-modern societies found that societies with broad, equitable tax systems and functioning bureaucracies were more likely to have open political institutions and prioritize public well-being. This challenges the notion that democracy is a modern Western phenomenon.
A Norwegian University of Science and Technology professor explains that people from groups distrustful of the government are more likely to believe in conspiracy theories. They also tend to have less education and use intuition when making decisions. Additionally, social media echo chambers can amplify these beliefs.
A new study by University of Pennsylvania researchers found that a single postcard campaign increased mail-in ballot applications by 0.5 percentage points and boosted mail ballots cast by 0.4 percentage points. The inexpensive postcards, costing less than $1 each, were equally impactful for Black and white registrants.
A study by University of Exeter researcher Dr. Patrick English found that minority candidates are less likely to be fielded in areas with lower tolerance for diversity. Only 65 out of 650 potential BAME MPs needed to reflect the UK's minority-ethnic population, highlighting a systemic barrier to representation.
Research found that men and women endorsing traditional forms of masculinity were more likely to vote for and have positive feelings towards Trump. Hegemonic masculinity, a culturally idealized form of masculinity emphasizing strength, dominance, and power, was linked to increased sexism, racism, and xenophobia.
A University of Houston researcher has developed a mathematical model showing that economic inequality causes political polarization. Once polarization occurs, it can spread rapidly to the whole population and persist even when the conditions that produced it have reversed.
A recent survey by Bright Line Watch found that fewer than a third of Republican voters have confidence in the national vote count, with nearly half expecting Donald Trump to be inaugurated for a second term. The study highlights the persistence of partisan divisions and mistrust in election results among Trump supporters.
A new method developed by Cornell University researchers can inject fairness into political redistricting. The 'Fairmandering' data tool creates billions of potential electoral maps for each state and then algorithmically identifies possibilities meeting desired criteria for fairness.
Researchers analyzed North Americans' foreign policy preferences, finding that coercive measures are more likely to be supported in highly personalized and consolidated autocracies without US ties. In contrast, foreign democracy aid is preferred in regimes with strategic or financial ties and multi-party elections.
Researchers found that Christian nationalist values among non-churchgoers were strongly tied to voting for Trump. In contrast, churchgoers' support for Trump was not influenced by their level of Christian nationalism. The study challenges the idea that the religious vote for Trump was driven by Christian leaders and institutions.
The study found that adults in states voting for Hillary Clinton experienced 54.6 million more days of poor mental health, compared to Trump-voting states, with increases observed in older adults, women, and white individuals. Depression rates also rose in Clinton-voting states after the election.
Residents in states with a Hillary Clinton majority experienced increased stress and depression following the 2016 general election, according to a UCSF-Duke study. The study found that Clinton's margin of victory was predictive of mental health change.
A new election forecasting approach uses a mathematical modeling technique to describe how voters in different states may influence each other during an election year. The model forecasts a victory for Biden 89.03% of the time, with a margin of victory lower than the percentage of undecided voters.
A recent study by Bocconi University and Princeton suggests that Twitter disadvantaged Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election by making independent voters less likely to vote for him. The study found no effect of Twitter on Republican elections, with a shift towards higher approval of Hillary Clinton among independents.
Researchers propose a data-driven model to forecast U.S. elections by tracking democratic and republican voters over time, predicting vote margins in each state. The authors' simple yet effective approach enables early forecasts with high accuracy, making it a valuable tool for election prediction.
A new analysis identifies US states that make voting easiest and those that make it more challenging. States like Oregon, Washington, Utah, Illinois, and Maryland offer convenient options such as online registration, early voting, and mail-in voting.
A USC study analyzed over 240 million election-related tweets, finding thousands of bots posting about President Trump and his opponent, spreading right-leaning conspiracies like QAnon. The researchers also identified significant partisan divides among humans, with users retweeting bots' messages aligned with their leanings.
A study examines Electoral College bias in US presidential elections and finds the system may not exhibit long-term partisan bias. The analysis suggests that the 2020 Electoral College bias is likely to tilt Republican but to a lesser extent than in 2016, depending on popular vote results.
Researchers found that the 2020 election has less of a tilt to Republicans than in 2016, and that a close popular vote margin could lead to either outcome. The study suggests Biden may not need as large a popular vote margin as Clinton did in 2016.
Despite majority view that government is to blame for COVID-19 spread, survey data shows no clear link between public health issues and voting intentions. Researchers found 'null' results in terms of public opinion influencing electoral politics, suggesting politicians may not be punished or rewarded for pandemic management.
A Rutgers study found that white Americans' support for punitive immigration policies contradicts their favor for the DREAM Act, driven by racial resentment and egalitarianism. White Democrats' support is influenced by both factors, while Republicans are only driven by racial resentment.
Researchers found that societies with good governance, characterized by equitable power and wealth distribution, tend to collapse more thoroughly than autocratic regimes. Leaders who abandon core principles and moral guidelines can destabilize their societies, leading to a loss of citizen confidence and fiscal health.
A study by UNLV social media expert Natalie Pennington and Iowa State professor Kelly Winfrey examines what motivates people to engage in politics online. The research suggests that interpersonal relationships outweigh political motivations for some individuals, but high-influence goals drive others to share their views.
Researchers analyzed health records of nearly 3 million US adults before and after the 2016 presidential election, finding higher acute CVD hospitalization rates following the election. The study suggests that sociopolitical stress may be a contributing factor to increased risk of acute cardiovascular disease.
A new study found that hospitalization rates for acute cardiovascular disease events increased by 1.62 times after the 2016 presidential election, suggesting that sociopolitical stress may trigger CVD events. The findings were consistent across sex, age, and race/ethnicity groups.
A study of 2.2 million tweets found coordinated efforts by foreign actors on Twitter to interfere in the US presidential election, mirroring Russia's tactics from earlier meddling. Researchers recommend detecting and responding to these efforts before an election, and publicizing the threat to protect Americans from online manipulation.
A new study suggests that truthful candidates are less likely to make it through to elected office. The research highlights how candidates who progress in politics are those most prepared to renge on electoral promises.
A new study by Lingling Zhang and Doug J. Chung found that mass media advertising is more influential among independent voters, while grassroots outreach is more effective at reaching a candidate's base. The research also suggests that television advertising can persuade undecided voters to change their minds.
A University of Michigan researcher found that religious Muslims experienced the largest decline in mental health, with a 11 percentage point rise, compared to other groups. The study suggests that sociopolitical events can have negative consequences for educational and social outcomes among affected groups.
A recent study found that the 2016 US presidential election led to an increase in anxiety and depression among Muslim college students. The researchers analyzed data from over 1,000 students and discovered a significant association between the election outcome and mental health outcomes.
A new RAND Corporation report examines foreign election interference in the US, focusing on creating distrust among Americans and reducing consensus. The study reveals that Russia's efforts are based on Cold War strategies aimed at undermining democratic governance processes.
Researchers at the University of Houston are developing machine learning and natural language processing techniques to generate novel attacks and improve filters against cyber threats. The goal is to stay one step ahead of hackers and close the loop by continuously improving detectors.
A partisan gap has opened up in voting by mail preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Democrats expressing a significantly greater preference for mail ballots than Republicans. Despite this gap, there is bipartisan support for making mail ballots available to all voters who want them.
Research shows that appointing a new leader just before an election leads to a higher turnover of MPs across Europe. The study analyzed statistics from 251 parties between 1945 and 2015, finding that the proportion of new and re-elected MPs is almost 5 percentage points higher for parties with a new leadership.
The latest Bright Line Watch analysis reveals a significant decline in US democracy's performance on various principles, with substantial drops in government protection for peaceful protests, prevention of political violence, and free speech. Experts rate the US as performing poorly on dimensions associated with civility and behavior.
A comprehensive analysis of 59 real-time randomized experiments found that televised campaign ads sway candidate favorability by about 0.05 points and influence vote choice by an average of 0.7%. The impact of each ad is similar regardless of production, context, or target audience
A new Yale University study found that political ads have consistently small persuasive effects across various characteristics, including tone, timing, and audience partisanship. The study showed that positive ads work no better than attack ads in influencing voter preferences, regardless of the candidate or party.
A new study analyzing nationwide U.S. county-level data and individual-level voter records from Washington and Utah found that mandatory vote-by-mail modestly increases voter turnout by 1.8-2.9% without favoring either party. The effect on Democratic shares of the vote was not statistically significant, with a minor increase of 0.7%.
Studies with over 2,500 participants reveal an 'objectivity illusion' where individuals on both sides perceive those who share their views as more objective. The findings suggest a self-reinforcing bias in information processing deepens the ideological divide.
A study by Yale University found that US voters are willing to forgive undemocratic behavior to achieve their partisan ends and policy goals. Only 3.5% of voters would cast ballots against their preferred candidates as punishment for undemocratic behavior.
The survey found a negative effect of Trump's election on Europeans' image of the US, but no significant impact on signing a trade and investment agreement. Undecided individuals were more likely to adjust their view in a negative direction, rather than those with positive images.
Researchers developed a machine learning system that can detect social media posts involved in coordinated political influence campaigns based on their content features. The system uses word count, webpage links, and posting time as digital fingerprints to identify suspicious activity.
A recent study by Case Western Reserve University reveals a correlation between states' voting patterns in the 2016 presidential election and decreases in health insurance coverage. States classified as 'red' had the highest uninsured rates, while 'blue' states saw a decrease of over 7.6 million uninsured adults.
Research by Binghamton University faculty highlights Spanish language's growing impact on US politics, with key findings including increased use of Spanish in campaign speeches and debates. The study suggests a divide between Democratic and Republican parties on the role of Spanish in election discourse.
A study by the University of Colorado at Boulder found that Facebook users who are ideologically extreme, lacking trust in conventional media and one another, post misinformation more often. About 1% of users at the far ideological extremes were responsible for sharing nearly half of the fake news on the platform.
Researchers at the University of Missouri found three common ethical issues in US presidential election press coverage between 2000-2016: failing to exercise independent judgment, underestimating new technologies, and failing to provide a representative picture of the electorate.
A Rutgers-led study reveals that consuming fake news increases political trust, especially among moderates and conservatives, while strong liberals mistrust the government. The researchers found a positive association between fake news exposure and overall political trust, with an 8% increase in trust for Congress.
Scientists develop a general technique for identifying pivotal components, which can tip the scales in group decision-making. The approach is applied to various systems, including voting, Twitter and financial markets.
Researchers analyzed 10 months of campaign emails to find varied strategies and goals, with the Clinton campaign making a surprising decision to stop emailing inactive supporters. Trump campaign e-mails were more participatory, while Clinton sent eight emails a week to active supporters at peak.
A recent survey by Bright Line Watch found that experts rate US democratic performance as the worst since 2017, with significant declines in accountability, checks and balances, and individual rights. The public's perception of democracy also declined, with those who disapprove of Trump showing a sharp decline in ratings.
A study analyzing Pew's National Survey of Latinos found that both documented and undocumented immigrants expressed high fear of deportation. Latino US citizens also reported increased anxiety about deportation since the 2016 US presidential election, despite lower initial levels.
A study found that believers in conspiracies are more likely to engage in politics, but also resort to violent means when believing the government is controlled by secret societies. The researchers suggest this could lead to an acceptance of extreme options.
A new analysis found that Russian trolls used fake persona types to discuss vaccination on Twitter during the 2016 US election cycle. The researchers identified nine types of troll personas and found that they targeted specific political groups with pro- and anti-vaccination messages.
A new system uses AI to root out political memes and disinformation on social media platforms, highlighting the threat of coordinated campaigns to incite violence and manipulate elections. The project aims to flag manipulated content in real-time to prevent harm.
New research from Rice University found that Barack Obama's 2008 presidential election improved the mental health of black men, with an average decrease in poor mental health days from four to three. However, this benefit did not extend to black women, who reported a slight increase in mental health problems following the election.