Articles tagged with Elections
A new method developed by Cornell University researchers can inject fairness into political redistricting. The 'Fairmandering' data tool creates billions of potential electoral maps for each state and then algorithmically identifies possibilities meeting desired criteria for fairness.
Researchers analyzed North Americans' foreign policy preferences, finding that coercive measures are more likely to be supported in highly personalized and consolidated autocracies without US ties. In contrast, foreign democracy aid is preferred in regimes with strategic or financial ties and multi-party elections.
Researchers found that Christian nationalist values among non-churchgoers were strongly tied to voting for Trump. In contrast, churchgoers' support for Trump was not influenced by their level of Christian nationalism. The study challenges the idea that the religious vote for Trump was driven by Christian leaders and institutions.
Residents in states with a Hillary Clinton majority experienced increased stress and depression following the 2016 general election, according to a UCSF-Duke study. The study found that Clinton's margin of victory was predictive of mental health change.
The study found that adults in states voting for Hillary Clinton experienced 54.6 million more days of poor mental health, compared to Trump-voting states, with increases observed in older adults, women, and white individuals. Depression rates also rose in Clinton-voting states after the election.
A recent study by Bocconi University and Princeton suggests that Twitter disadvantaged Donald Trump in the 2016 US presidential election by making independent voters less likely to vote for him. The study found no effect of Twitter on Republican elections, with a shift towards higher approval of Hillary Clinton among independents.
A new election forecasting approach uses a mathematical modeling technique to describe how voters in different states may influence each other during an election year. The model forecasts a victory for Biden 89.03% of the time, with a margin of victory lower than the percentage of undecided voters.
A USC study analyzed over 240 million election-related tweets, finding thousands of bots posting about President Trump and his opponent, spreading right-leaning conspiracies like QAnon. The researchers also identified significant partisan divides among humans, with users retweeting bots' messages aligned with their leanings.
Researchers propose a data-driven model to forecast U.S. elections by tracking democratic and republican voters over time, predicting vote margins in each state. The authors' simple yet effective approach enables early forecasts with high accuracy, making it a valuable tool for election prediction.
A new analysis identifies US states that make voting easiest and those that make it more challenging. States like Oregon, Washington, Utah, Illinois, and Maryland offer convenient options such as online registration, early voting, and mail-in voting.
A study examines Electoral College bias in US presidential elections and finds the system may not exhibit long-term partisan bias. The analysis suggests that the 2020 Electoral College bias is likely to tilt Republican but to a lesser extent than in 2016, depending on popular vote results.
Researchers found that the 2020 election has less of a tilt to Republicans than in 2016, and that a close popular vote margin could lead to either outcome. The study suggests Biden may not need as large a popular vote margin as Clinton did in 2016.
A Rutgers study found that white Americans' support for punitive immigration policies contradicts their favor for the DREAM Act, driven by racial resentment and egalitarianism. White Democrats' support is influenced by both factors, while Republicans are only driven by racial resentment.
Despite majority view that government is to blame for COVID-19 spread, survey data shows no clear link between public health issues and voting intentions. Researchers found 'null' results in terms of public opinion influencing electoral politics, suggesting politicians may not be punished or rewarded for pandemic management.
Researchers found that societies with good governance, characterized by equitable power and wealth distribution, tend to collapse more thoroughly than autocratic regimes. Leaders who abandon core principles and moral guidelines can destabilize their societies, leading to a loss of citizen confidence and fiscal health.
A study by UNLV social media expert Natalie Pennington and Iowa State professor Kelly Winfrey examines what motivates people to engage in politics online. The research suggests that interpersonal relationships outweigh political motivations for some individuals, but high-influence goals drive others to share their views.
Researchers analyzed health records of nearly 3 million US adults before and after the 2016 presidential election, finding higher acute CVD hospitalization rates following the election. The study suggests that sociopolitical stress may be a contributing factor to increased risk of acute cardiovascular disease.
A new study found that hospitalization rates for acute cardiovascular disease events increased by 1.62 times after the 2016 presidential election, suggesting that sociopolitical stress may trigger CVD events. The findings were consistent across sex, age, and race/ethnicity groups.
A new study suggests that truthful candidates are less likely to make it through to elected office. The research highlights how candidates who progress in politics are those most prepared to renge on electoral promises.
A study of 2.2 million tweets found coordinated efforts by foreign actors on Twitter to interfere in the US presidential election, mirroring Russia's tactics from earlier meddling. Researchers recommend detecting and responding to these efforts before an election, and publicizing the threat to protect Americans from online manipulation.
A new study by Lingling Zhang and Doug J. Chung found that mass media advertising is more influential among independent voters, while grassroots outreach is more effective at reaching a candidate's base. The research also suggests that television advertising can persuade undecided voters to change their minds.
A recent study found that the 2016 US presidential election led to an increase in anxiety and depression among Muslim college students. The researchers analyzed data from over 1,000 students and discovered a significant association between the election outcome and mental health outcomes.
A University of Michigan researcher found that religious Muslims experienced the largest decline in mental health, with a 11 percentage point rise, compared to other groups. The study suggests that sociopolitical events can have negative consequences for educational and social outcomes among affected groups.
A new RAND Corporation report examines foreign election interference in the US, focusing on creating distrust among Americans and reducing consensus. The study reveals that Russia's efforts are based on Cold War strategies aimed at undermining democratic governance processes.
Researchers at the University of Houston are developing machine learning and natural language processing techniques to generate novel attacks and improve filters against cyber threats. The goal is to stay one step ahead of hackers and close the loop by continuously improving detectors.
A partisan gap has opened up in voting by mail preferences during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Democrats expressing a significantly greater preference for mail ballots than Republicans. Despite this gap, there is bipartisan support for making mail ballots available to all voters who want them.
Research shows that appointing a new leader just before an election leads to a higher turnover of MPs across Europe. The study analyzed statistics from 251 parties between 1945 and 2015, finding that the proportion of new and re-elected MPs is almost 5 percentage points higher for parties with a new leadership.
The latest Bright Line Watch analysis reveals a significant decline in US democracy's performance on various principles, with substantial drops in government protection for peaceful protests, prevention of political violence, and free speech. Experts rate the US as performing poorly on dimensions associated with civility and behavior.
A comprehensive analysis of 59 real-time randomized experiments found that televised campaign ads sway candidate favorability by about 0.05 points and influence vote choice by an average of 0.7%. The impact of each ad is similar regardless of production, context, or target audience
A new Yale University study found that political ads have consistently small persuasive effects across various characteristics, including tone, timing, and audience partisanship. The study showed that positive ads work no better than attack ads in influencing voter preferences, regardless of the candidate or party.
A new study analyzing nationwide U.S. county-level data and individual-level voter records from Washington and Utah found that mandatory vote-by-mail modestly increases voter turnout by 1.8-2.9% without favoring either party. The effect on Democratic shares of the vote was not statistically significant, with a minor increase of 0.7%.
Studies with over 2,500 participants reveal an 'objectivity illusion' where individuals on both sides perceive those who share their views as more objective. The findings suggest a self-reinforcing bias in information processing deepens the ideological divide.
A study by Yale University found that US voters are willing to forgive undemocratic behavior to achieve their partisan ends and policy goals. Only 3.5% of voters would cast ballots against their preferred candidates as punishment for undemocratic behavior.
The survey found a negative effect of Trump's election on Europeans' image of the US, but no significant impact on signing a trade and investment agreement. Undecided individuals were more likely to adjust their view in a negative direction, rather than those with positive images.
Researchers developed a machine learning system that can detect social media posts involved in coordinated political influence campaigns based on their content features. The system uses word count, webpage links, and posting time as digital fingerprints to identify suspicious activity.
A recent study by Case Western Reserve University reveals a correlation between states' voting patterns in the 2016 presidential election and decreases in health insurance coverage. States classified as 'red' had the highest uninsured rates, while 'blue' states saw a decrease of over 7.6 million uninsured adults.
Research by Binghamton University faculty highlights Spanish language's growing impact on US politics, with key findings including increased use of Spanish in campaign speeches and debates. The study suggests a divide between Democratic and Republican parties on the role of Spanish in election discourse.
A study by the University of Colorado at Boulder found that Facebook users who are ideologically extreme, lacking trust in conventional media and one another, post misinformation more often. About 1% of users at the far ideological extremes were responsible for sharing nearly half of the fake news on the platform.
Researchers at the University of Missouri found three common ethical issues in US presidential election press coverage between 2000-2016: failing to exercise independent judgment, underestimating new technologies, and failing to provide a representative picture of the electorate.
A Rutgers-led study reveals that consuming fake news increases political trust, especially among moderates and conservatives, while strong liberals mistrust the government. The researchers found a positive association between fake news exposure and overall political trust, with an 8% increase in trust for Congress.
Scientists develop a general technique for identifying pivotal components, which can tip the scales in group decision-making. The approach is applied to various systems, including voting, Twitter and financial markets.
Researchers analyzed 10 months of campaign emails to find varied strategies and goals, with the Clinton campaign making a surprising decision to stop emailing inactive supporters. Trump campaign e-mails were more participatory, while Clinton sent eight emails a week to active supporters at peak.
A recent survey by Bright Line Watch found that experts rate US democratic performance as the worst since 2017, with significant declines in accountability, checks and balances, and individual rights. The public's perception of democracy also declined, with those who disapprove of Trump showing a sharp decline in ratings.
A study analyzing Pew's National Survey of Latinos found that both documented and undocumented immigrants expressed high fear of deportation. Latino US citizens also reported increased anxiety about deportation since the 2016 US presidential election, despite lower initial levels.
A new analysis found that Russian trolls used fake persona types to discuss vaccination on Twitter during the 2016 US election cycle. The researchers identified nine types of troll personas and found that they targeted specific political groups with pro- and anti-vaccination messages.
A study found that believers in conspiracies are more likely to engage in politics, but also resort to violent means when believing the government is controlled by secret societies. The researchers suggest this could lead to an acceptance of extreme options.
New research from Rice University found that Barack Obama's 2008 presidential election improved the mental health of black men, with an average decrease in poor mental health days from four to three. However, this benefit did not extend to black women, who reported a slight increase in mental health problems following the election.
A new system uses AI to root out political memes and disinformation on social media platforms, highlighting the threat of coordinated campaigns to incite violence and manipulate elections. The project aims to flag manipulated content in real-time to prevent harm.
A University of Cincinnati study analyzed 1,351 candidate responses and found that women candidates tend to run more sophisticated campaigns with a focus on general themes. Despite this, women often face challenges in winning elections due to various factors such as voter demographics and campaign strategies.
A study published in Nature Human Behaviour found that exposure to 'fake news' during the 2016 US presidential election has been overstated. Untrustworthy websites accounted for less than half of all Americans' visits and only six percent of their news diets on average.
Research found a short-term drop in the proportion of boys born in Ontario, Canada's most populated province, following the 2016 US presidential election. This effect was observed only in politically liberal areas, not in conservative ones, suggesting a potential impact of societal stressors on birth ratios.
A new study from University of California, Riverside, found that Donald Trump's racially inflammatory speech emboldened particular members of the public to express their prejudices. Exposure to such rhetoric made individuals feel more comfortable expressing their prejudice, while silence from other elites gave the impression that a nor...
Oil and gas companies contributed over $84 million to US congressional candidates in 2018, largely influencing environmental policy votes. The study found a negative association between oil and gas company contributions and subsequent LCV scores, suggesting a reward system for legislators voting against pro-environmental policies.
A Univision News poll by Cornell University finds that Bernie Sanders leads among Latino voters in Nevada with 33% support, followed by Joe Biden at 22%. The survey also shows significant concerns over health care and racism among Latinos, with four out of five disapproving of President Trump.
A game theory model captures and assesses election interference by analyzing social media activity and polls, echoing the 2016 election. The model's results reflect real-world scenarios, including Russian Twitter fake accounts' influence.
A study by Toni Rodon and colleagues found that areas near former concentration camps in Germany receive more electoral support for far-right parties. The researchers suggest that the 'satiation hypothesis' may explain why this relationship ceases to be significant when the Alternative for Germany party is included in the analysis.
Researchers found that 94% of participants accepted manipulated responses as their own and rationalized moderate views. The study suggests that even polarized individuals can become open to opposing views for a short time.
Research by Rice University economist Richard Boylan found that district elections increase noninfrastructure spending by 9.1% due to the 'common pool' problem, which can lead to excess city spending. This raises questions about the balance between equal representation and effective governance.
A new study found a significant increase in political TV ads referencing guns, with gun regulation messages growing by 369% and pro-gun rights ads decreasing by 45%. Gun policy has emerged as a key issue in candidates' campaign platforms, with most ads supporting the Second Amendment.
Researchers found that people rarely used the pronoun 'she' when referring to the next U.S. president before the 2016 election, despite believing a woman would win. The study suggests an implicit bias against using 'she' in such contexts, which persisted even after Clinton's expected victory.