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Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)


New attribution studies: Increasing effects of global warming on fire dynamics and public health

Two new studies find that global warming is increasing fire dynamics, particularly in Australia, South America, Western North America, and Siberia, leading to more burned areas. Climate change also increased deaths from fire-related air pollution, with a 15.8% rise in global burned area from 2003 to 2019.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·DateOct 21, 2024

What works: Groundbreaking evaluation of climate policy measures over two decades

Researchers evaluated 1,500 climate policies over two decades and identified successful cases, such as China's pilot emissions trading systems and the UK's minimum carbon price, which delivered major emission reductions. The study highlights the importance of well-designed policy mixes in achieving climate neutrality.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalScience·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateAug 22, 2024

Tipping risks from overshooting 1.5 °C can be minimised if warming is swiftly reversed

A recent study warns that overshooting 1.5°C of global warming poses significant risks to the Earth's climate system, but swiftly reversing warming can minimize these risks. The study suggests that achieving and maintaining net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2100 is crucial to limit tipping risks.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateAug 1, 2024

Up to 30 percent more time: Climate change makes it harder for women to collect water

A new study finds that climate change could lead to a doubling of daily water collection times for women in certain regions by 2050. The researchers estimate that this would result in substantial welfare losses, equivalent to tens to hundreds of millions of US dollars per country and year.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateJun 21, 2024

Credibility makes or breaks the price: political commitment in long-term climate policy key for effective EU emissions trading system

The EU ETS's credibility plays a crucial role in its effectiveness. Reforms strengthened the system's long-term credibility, allowing firms to align their market behavior with climate targets. This led to increased carbon prices, signaling high policy credibility and farsighted actors.

Securing competitiveness of energy-intensive industries through relocation: The pulling power of renewables

A new study suggests that renewable-scarce countries like parts of the EU, Japan, and South Korea could save between 18 to 38 percent in production costs by relocating their industrial production to countries with cheap renewable energy. The study's lead author argues that importing hydrogen via ship is not a cost-effective strategy fo...

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Energy·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateApr 24, 2024

38 trillion dollars in damages each year: World economy already committed to income reduction of 19 % due to climate change

The study projects significant economic losses globally, particularly in the tropics, with countries least responsible for climate change facing 60% greater income loss. A transition to renewable energy is crucial to mitigate catastrophic consequences and stabilize the planet's temperature.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateApr 17, 2024

Hurricanes and power grids: Eliminating large-scale outages with a new approach

A new study published in Nature Energy finds that protecting a small but critical set of power lines can prevent large-scale outages almost entirely. The method identifies the most critical lines and increases the system's resilience, reducing the risk of major power outages in regions or cities by up to 99%.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Energy·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateMar 1, 2024

Electrification or hydrogen? Both have distinct roles in the European energy transition

A study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) highlights the complementary roles of electrification and hydrogen in achieving European energy transition. Electrification is critical for sectors like transport and heating, while hydrogen is mainly used for aviation, industry, and electricity storage.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalOne Earth·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateFeb 16, 2024

Planetary Commons: Fostering global cooperation to safeguard critical Earth system functions

The Planetary Commons concept aims to establish collective stewardship obligations for nation-states to protect and govern critical biophysical systems. Researchers argue that human activities are pushing the planet beyond its boundaries, requiring a new approach to governance.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·DateJan 22, 2024

Future floods: Global warming intensifies heavy rain – even more than expected

A recent study published in the Journal of Climate confirms that global warming is increasing the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall extremes exponentially. The study's findings suggest that extreme rainfall will be heavier and more frequent, impacting social welfare, economies, and social stability.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalJournal of Climate·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 27, 2023

A fifth higher: Tropical cyclones substantially raise the Social Cost of Carbon

A new study found that accounting for long-term impacts of tropical cyclones raises the global Social Cost of Carbon by more than 20%. The increase is mainly driven by projected rise of tropical-cyclone damages to major economies, particularly India, USA, China, Taiwan, and Japan under global warming.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 23, 2023

Stuck to the subway: less privileged people have fewer possibilities to adapt their mobility behaviour to heat

A new study by PIK researchers reveals that less privileged people in NYC face limitations in adapting their mobility behavior to heat, leading to increased health risks. The analysis of mobility data from 438 NYC subway stations shows that those already at higher risk have the fewest options to adjust their behavior.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalThe Lancet Planetary Health·DateOct 9, 2023

Stability inspection for West Antarctica shows: marine ice sheet is not destabilized yet, but possibly on a path to tipping

Researchers found no indication of irreversible retreat in West Antarctica's ice sheet, but warn that current climate conditions could trigger slow and certain loss of ice over hundreds to thousands of years. The study suggests that even with no additional warming, an irreversible collapse is possible in 300-500 years.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalThe Cryosphere·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateSep 7, 2023

Climate extremes hit stressed economies even harder

Climate extremes have a disproportionate impact on already stressed economies, leading to increased costs for households and reduced resilience to future shocks. The study's findings highlight the need for increased economic resilience to cope with climate-related disasters and mitigate non-climate related crises.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalEnvironmental Research Letters·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateAug 30, 2023

Past abrupt changes in North Atlantic Overturning have impacted the climate system across the globe

Research reveals that Dansgaard-Oeschger events triggered drastic global changes in atmospheric circulation and precipitation, impacting tropical monsoon domains severely. The study's findings support improved models to represent abrupt climate changes, shedding light on the potential impacts of future human-made global warming scenarios.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateAug 28, 2023

Amazon in the firetrap: Deforestation and warming lock rainforest in dry and damaged grassland state

A new study finds that fire can lock large parts of the Amazon in a treeless state, preventing 56-86% of the Amazon from regrowing. Global warming and deforestation damage the forest's moisture recycling process, enabling a self-reinforcing feedback loop of forest loss.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateJul 11, 2023

Worse than diesel and gasoline? Bioenergy as bad as fossils if there is no pricing of CO2 emissions from land-use change

A new study finds that bioenergy may not be a climate-neutral alternative to fossil fuels without effective pricing of CO2 emissions from land-use change, leading researchers to call for comprehensive carbon pricing schemes and international agreements to protect natural lands.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·DateJun 26, 2023

Effective capital markets are needed to protect the climate

A new study by Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Mercator Research Institute finds that the current difference between savings and lending rates results in additional global heating of 0.2 degrees Celsius. Governments can effectively counteract high interest rates on loans by subsidising investment, leading to more foss...

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalJournal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists·DateMay 22, 2023

Coal exit can happen only with stronger policies – and with China

A new study suggests that current coal exit efforts are unlikely to succeed without stronger policies, including carbon pricing and phase-out of coal mining. China plays a critical role in achieving this goal, as it produces and consumes over half of global coal, and its swift action can help propel Paris-aligned momentum.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateFeb 6, 2023

Amazon heat drives Tibet temperatures: climate tipping elements connected half around the globe

Scientists have discovered a connection between Amazon rainforest temperature changes and Tibetan Plateau climate patterns, highlighting the global impact of Earth system tipping elements. The study found a pronounced propagation pathway from South America to Tibet via Southern Africa and the Middle East.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateJan 26, 2023

Climate risk insurance can effectively mitigate economic losses

A new study finds that climate risk insurance can effectively mitigate economic losses from US hurricanes under global warming, accelerating economic recovery. However, national insurance mechanisms in developing countries are insufficient to cope with extreme weather events, highlighting the need for international climate finance and ...

Carbon dioxide removal should receive additional financial support

A study suggests that subsidies for carbon dioxide removal should be higher than the price on carbon emissions due to economic leakage. This is because ambitious countries reducing emissions can lead to other countries increasing their emissions, reducing overall emissions reduction. In contrast, carbon dioxide removal does not affect ...

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalJournal of Environmental Economics and Management·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateDec 20, 2022

Economic losses from hurricanes become too big to be offset by the US if warming continues

A new study suggests that the US economy's supply chains cannot compensate for local production losses from hurricanes if climate change continues. The researchers found that even under moderate warming scenarios, hurricane damages will exceed the economy's coping capacities, leading to indirect economic effects and price increases for...

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalEnvironmental Research Letters·DateOct 17, 2022

Targeted reimbursement: A just price for CO2

The study identifies households with high energy expenditures as the most affected groups, which should receive direct transfers for compensation. Cash payments to all households combined with moderate support for renewable energies can achieve a socially just solution, lowering energy prices and reducing hardship cases.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalJournal of Environmental Economics and Management·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateSep 30, 2022

Extreme temperatures fuel online hate speech

A new study has found that extreme temperatures are fueling online hate speech, with hate tweets increasing by up to 12% for colder temperatures and 22% for hotter temperatures. The researchers analyzed over 4 billion tweets from the US between 2014 and 2020, finding a 'feel-good window' of 15-18°C where hate tweets were at their lowest.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalThe Lancet·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateSep 7, 2022

Living in timber cities could avoid emissions – without using farmland for wood production

A new study suggests that timber cities could significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions by using wood as a building material. The researchers found that housing in mid-rise buildings made of wood could avoid more than 100 billion tons of CO2 emissions by 2100, equivalent to 10% of the remaining carbon budget for the 2°C target.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Communications·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateAug 30, 2022

Fungi-based meat alternatives to help save Earth’s forests

A new analysis by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research suggests that substituting 20% of meat from cattle with microbial protein could halve deforestation and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Microbial protein can be produced in fermentation tanks, reducing pressure on land and methane emissions.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateMay 4, 2022

Amazon rainforest is losing resilience: New evidence from satellite data analysis

Research from satellite data analysis suggests that three-quarters of the Amazon forest has lost its ability to recover from perturbations since the early 2000s. This loss of resilience increases the risk of dieback and contributes to global warming, highlighting the urgent need for limiting logging and greenhouse gas emissions.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateMar 7, 2022

A gender dimension of energy: Modern cooking fuels connected to quicker demographic transition

Access to modern cooking fuels like gas and electricity improves health and frees up time for women to seek information and education, ultimately leading to reproductive rights. The study found a significant connection between modern energy access and lower fertility rates in countries with high initial fertility rates.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Sustainability·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateDec 13, 2021

China’s crops at risk: Climate change boosts spread of crop pests and diseases

A recent study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research found that climate change has contributed to a four-fold increase in crop pest and disease occurrence in China since the 1970s. The researchers attributed this rise to warmer night temperatures, which can foster an increased chance for pests and diseases.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Food·TypeData/statistical analysis·DateDec 9, 2021

Accelerated renewables-based electrification paves the way for a post-fossil future

By 2050, renewable electricity is expected to become the cheapest form of energy globally, accounting for up to three-quarters of all demand. This shift can be achieved through accelerated electrification of industries, such as steel production and transportation, which can reduce energy consumption and lower carbon intensity.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Energy·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 25, 2021

High impact climate events: Better adaptation through earlier prediction

A new prediction framework can forecast extreme climate events like floods and heatwaves up to two days in advance, allowing for crucial preparation time. This network-based approach analyzes large-scale connectivity patterns in observational data to improve forecasting accuracy.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 15, 2021

Climate change to stir up global agriculture within next decade, NASA/PIK study finds

A NASA/PIK study found that new climate conditions will push crop yields outside of their normal range in more regions, particularly in breadbasket areas. This could lead to severe losses for farmers unless they adapt quickly by changing planting dates or using different crop varieties.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Food·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateNov 1, 2021

Reducing tropical cyclone impacts: The double benefit of climate protection through both limiting and delaying global warming

Researchers found that limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius can postpone severe tropical cyclone impacts to the late second half of the century when there are fewer people at risk. Delaying warming can reduce exposed populations in countries like Japan, China, and the Korean peninsula.

SourcePotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)·JournalNature Climate Change·TypeComputational simulation/modeling·DateSep 27, 2021