Research on identifying and measuring risk. Covers rock-avalanche modeling, cardiovascular risk, food-toxin safety, and heart calcium scans.
A modified Grunow-Finke assessment tool (mGFT) has been validated against previous outbreaks, outlining 11 criteria for determining if an outbreak is of unnatural origin. The tool helps identify unusual strain patterns, genetic manipulation, and peculiar geographic distribution, indicating potential artificial origin.
A long-term study found that regular tub bathing is associated with a lower risk of death from heart disease and stroke, with higher frequencies seeming to offer greater protection. The study tracked over 61,000 middle-aged adults in Japan and found that daily hot baths were linked to a 28% lower overall risk of cardiovascular disease.
A new study has found that current flood risk estimates rely on inadequate methods for calculating damage, which match poorly with observations. A beta distribution characterizes building damage at a given flood depth, revealing a high-variability relationship between depth and damage.
A study of over 500,000 middle-aged adults found that anticholinergic burden is associated with an increased risk of future adverse events such as falls, dementia, heart attacks, strokes, and deaths. The use of multiple medications with anticholinergic properties can have cumulative negative effects on the body.
A new coronavirus app coupled with machine intelligence will enable individuals to get an at-home risk assessment based on their symptoms and travel history. The app will also provide real-time information to local and public health officials, aiding in the targeting of prevention and treatment initiatives.
A population-based study found that young immigrants and refugees in Ontario, Canada, are at higher risk of experiencing violent assault compared to nonimmigrant youth. The study used linked health and administrative databases to analyze the risk of violent assault among young immigrants and refugees aged 10-24.
Researchers found that using AI to analyze CT scans can produce more accurate risk assessment for major cardiovascular events. Automated CT-based body composition biomarkers outperformed established clinical parameters like Framingham risk score and BMI in predicting adverse events.
A study published in Acta Obstetricia et Gynecologica Scandinavica found that women who had late abortions experienced a higher risk of extremely preterm birth. The research included over 418,000 first-time mothers and observed an increased risk of very low birthweight among those with late abortion(s) compared to early abortion(s).
A new tool for identifying frail patients has been successfully implemented in a large health system setting, reducing surgical risks. The Risk Analysis Index (RAI) uses clinical and patient-reported factors to generate a score representing each patient's level of frailty, enabling swift stratification and improved outcomes.
A study found that low-dose methotrexate was associated with a small increase in adverse events, such as skin cancer and gastrointestinal problems. However, the risk for kidney-related side effects was decreased. The findings suggest that monitoring guidelines and safe prescribing of LD-MTX may need to be revised.
A study by Stanford and UC Berkeley researchers found that algorithms are significantly more accurate than humans in predicting recidivism, approaching 90% accuracy. In contrast, human prediction rates were around 60%. The findings have important implications for criminal justice reform and the use of risk-assessment tools.
Researchers analyzed data from over 300,000 people and found that genetics significantly increases the risk of stroke and heart attack in men compared to women. The study suggests that genetic scores could be used to identify healthy middle-aged adults at higher risk and develop preventive measures.
A study published in Risk Analysis analyzed the impact of increasing hand hygiene at top 10 airports globally. The researchers found that if hand washing mitigation strategies are implemented in these ten critical airports, pandemic risk can drop by up to 37 percent.
A UK patient database analysis found tramadol increases hip fracture risk by up to 1.5 new cases per 1000 person-years, compared to other pain medications. The study highlights the need for tramadol's fracture risk to be considered in clinical practice and treatment guidelines.
Redlining practices in the 1930s are associated with higher rates of emergency department visits due to asthma, with a 39% increased risk in previously redlined neighbourhoods compared to non-redlined areas. Historical policies may have shaped neighbourhood development and air quality, contributing to asthma incidence.
A review paper in Science highlights the challenge of assessing chemical risks to wildlife, citing the need for computer modelling and long-term ecological monitoring. The authors recommend a more consistent retrospective risk assessment approach to better understand the impacts of chemicals on wildlife populations.
The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) has updated its risk assessment for Europe due to the ongoing novel coronavirus outbreak. The agency warns that further global spread is likely, with a moderate likelihood of imported cases being detected in EU/EEA countries. Adherence to infection prevention and control pra...
An analysis of self-reported data from over 37,000 US adults found associations between low-carb and low-fat diets and mortality risk, with unhealthy diets linked to higher total mortality. Healthy low-carb and low-fat diets were associated with lower total mortality rates.
Research published in the American Heart Association's journal found that hookah smoke causes blood clots to form within an average of 11 seconds, compared to 5 minutes without exposure. Hookah smoking increases the risk of heart attack or stroke.
A recent analysis found that one-third of all pregnancies in women with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) were delivered by Caesarean section, a two-fold increase compared to women without IBD. Women with IBD also face increased risks of gestational diabetes and preterm prelabour rupture of membranes.
A cohort study found that preoperative N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentrations were independently associated with vascular death or myocardial injury at 30 days after surgery. Preoperative NT-proBNP thresholds improved discrimination and risk stratification for patients undergoing noncardiac surgery.
A recent study found that genetic data can accurately predict stroke risk, identifying individuals with a three-fold higher risk of ischemic stroke. This method is more precise than existing estimates based on clinical risk factors and can help pinpoint modifiable risk factors to mitigate the risk.
A new computational clinical tool predicts osteoporotic vertebral fractures by analyzing patient-specific finite element analysis of functional spinal units from routine clinical scans. The method enables more accurate patient-specific analysis, paving the way for a spinal risk assessment tool and targeted early treatment strategies.
A new study by Oxford University Press USA reveals that machine learning can predict long-term risks of heart attack and cardiac death. The research used machine learning to assess cardiovascular risk factors in subjects, aligning accurately with actual events over a 15-year period.
Researchers used lipidomics and machine learning to identify a blood lipid profile linked to type 2 diabetes risk, which improved prediction over traditional methods. Lifestyle factors such as diet and physical activity also played a role in modulating the blood lipid profile.
A large new study finds that sustained weight loss is associated with lower breast cancer risk in women over 50. Women who lost weight after age 50 and kept it off had a 13-26% lower risk of breast cancer compared to those whose weight remained stable.
Studies use portable sensor technology and cellphone apps to measure air pollutant exposure, providing insights into reducing public health risks. Key findings include increased risks of respiratory diseases in children exposed to air pollution.
A new research tool, FFLLoRA, was developed to assess individual production lot risks of Listeria monocytogenes in frozen foods. The tool incorporates factors like facility attributes, Lm prevalence and consumer handling to estimate listeriosis risks.
Several studies presented at the symposium use system dynamics, modeling and risk analysis to address human trafficking. NGO actions often fail to understand the context before taking action, resulting in ineffective policies.
New studies examine prescribed fires' effectiveness and explore wildfires' characteristics as predictors of firefighting resource demand. Researchers aim to improve wildfire risk assessments and optimize fire management resource allocation.
The Society for Risk Analysis announced the 2019 winners of Best Paper and Best Poster awards. Terje Aven, Sayanti Mukherjee, Christian Blanco, Edward Oughton, and others won top honors for their significant contributions to risk analysis theory and practice.
The Society for Risk Analysis has awarded six prestigious awards and named six new Fellows, recognizing 12 individuals for their significant contributions to the field of risk analysis. The awardees include experts in decision analysis, education, service, practice, achievement, and statistical methods.
Researchers propose frameworks to improve laws, civilian strategies, and police response in reducing violent crimes and gun violence. A study found that reducing law enforcement response time decreases civilian casualties by 10-15 percent.
New studies reveal a link between natural foodborne toxins and vaccine resistance, as well as increased risk of cancers, cardiovascular and neurological illnesses. Aflatoxin and lead contamination pose significant threats to public health worldwide.
A new study assesses the lava flow risk on Mt. Etna's flanks, highlighting high-risk areas near populated regions and critical infrastructure. The researchers used a GIS-based approach to map hazard, exposure, and risk, revealing that effusive eruptions could harm people, properties, and services.
The new position paper provides practical guidance for managing postmenopausal osteoporosis, including easy-to-use algorithms that illustrate decision pathways based on absolute risk of fracture. The paper aims to offer the most appropriate interventions to patients, with a focus on targeting therapeutic interventions for low, high and...
Researchers at the Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ have developed a model that can predict the effects of toxicants on sensitive individuals and species at very low concentrations. The model takes into account the interaction between toxicant concentration, individual sensitivity, and environmental stress.
A combined test of Renal Angina Index (RAI) and urinary Neutrophil Gelatinase Associated Lipocalin (NGAL) can predict severe acute kidney injury risk in critically ill children, according to a recent study. This early identification allows for targeted interventions to reduce morbidity and hospital stay duration.
A new risk assessment model accurately predicted Ebola's spread into Uganda by considering constant contacts and temporary interactions. The model helped allocate resources and prevent further spread in the country.
Researchers developed a new assessment to identify risks of frailty through blood biomarkers, providing potential solutions for personalized treatment. The study involved analyzing 1191 elderly people and identified 12 metabolites that differentiate between frail and non-frail individuals.
A pooled analysis of 14 studies involving over 232,000 people found that any amount of running significantly lowers the risk of death from all causes. Even small doses of running, such as once weekly or less than 50 minutes, are associated with significant health and longevity benefits.
A study by St. Michael's Hospital found that living in less walkable neighborhoods is associated with a higher predicted 10-year cardiovascular risk, up to 33% higher than in the most walkable areas. Individuals in these neighborhoods also experience higher blood pressure and increased odds of prior diabetes diagnosis.
A study by Brigham and Women's Hospital found that irregular fluctuations in daily motor activity can predict increased risk of frailty, disability, and mortality in older adults. The researchers analyzed data from 1,275 participants and found that random activity fluctuations were associated with a 31% increase in frailty risk, 15-25%...
A federally funded study by Johns Hopkins Medicine researchers shows that wearable accelerometers are a reliable tool for predicting death risk in older adults. The research found that an accurate and objective accounting of physical activity outperforms traditional predictors of mortality, such as age, smoking, diabetes, alcohol use, ...
A Danish study of over 300,000 children born between 1980-2000 found that higher parental income during childhood was linked to a lower risk of developing schizophrenia later in life. The study analyzed data on family income until age 15 and its association with the development of psychotic disorders.
Researchers identify TIMP-1 and D-lactic acid as potential biomarkers for preterm birth risk in resource-poor areas. The study aims to develop a cost-effective, point-of-care diagnostic test to assess the presence of known risk factors.
Researchers evaluated six options, including afforestation, wetland restoration, and soil carbon sequestration, finding they contribute positively to ecosystem services and SDGs. However, some options require risk management to avoid negative impacts on food production and clean water.
Researchers have discovered a causal link between high blood pressure, obesity, and reduced lifespan in a massive genetic analysis of 700,000 individuals. By analyzing polygenic risk scores, the team identified blood pressure and obesity as key drivers of human longevity.
For most healthy individuals, statin use is uncertain and its benefits are small, while potential harms exist. The research suggests that lower-risk groups may not reach acceptable levels of risk reduction to justify taking daily statins.
A team of Penn State students developed a multi-pronged data analysis approach to improve IoT device security. They applied statistical data, machine learning, and other methods to identify potential security breaches and develop predictive patterns to anticipate attacks.
A significant association between changes in income and cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was found in this observational study. Participants who experienced a 50% or more decrease in income were at higher risk of developing CVD, including heart attack, coronary heart disease, and stroke, over an average follow-up period of 17 years.
Researchers analyzed a former methamphetamine-cooking house and found high levels of contamination in everyday items, including blinds, carpets, walls, and even toys. The study raises questions about the effectiveness of current surface detection methods in identifying indoor contamination risks.
A recent review found that individuals with good medication adherence have a lower risk of needing hospitalisation due to any cause (17% reduction) and long-term mortality risk (21% reduction). Medication non-adherence is associated with increased risks of adverse health outcomes in older populations.
Researchers reconstructed the Anak Krakatau flank collapse using satellite remote sensing data, finding it was triggered by a relatively small landslide. The study shows that the collapse changed the eruption style, leading to a more explosive and destructive event.
A new study highlights the importance of personal protective equipment in reducing workplace injuries and deaths among seafarers. The research found that PPE availability is the most significant factor in decreasing injury probability, with proper training also playing a crucial role.
Research from Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health finds that exposure to the criminal justice system increases certain risk factors, including antisocial attitudes and behaviors. This challenges the use of risk assessments for predicting recidivism in individuals without prior system exposure.
Researchers at University of Texas at Austin are developing noninvasive computational modeling technology to assess heart attack risk. The project uses computer simulation technology to analyze individual patients' vulnerability to plaque rupture, which can trigger a heart attack.
A recent study reassesses nuclear safety by prioritizing both objective and subjective risks, aiming to reduce psychological and physical trauma. The guidelines advocate for improved system resilience and shift towards systems-thinking in risk assessment.
A new study from the University of Texas at Austin develops a predictive model for sorting delinquent credit card users into categories based on their likelihood of paying back overdue debt. The model can help banks determine when to chase debts and when to let them go, reducing financial risks and uncertainty.
Researchers developed a Military Logistics Network Planning System to help military leaders better account for logistical risk and uncertainty. The system forecasts logistical outcomes based on available data, accounts for risk, and provides decision-making aid.