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Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences


Finer-scale simulations show promise for forecasting dangerous valley storms

Researchers found that increasing weather forecasting model resolution to the kilometre scale can improve predictions of flash floods and landslides. Higher-resolution simulations accurately captured storm intensity, timing, and location, while lower-resolution models smoothed out critical wind pattern details.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateMar 9, 2026

Where does northwest China's increasing moisture come from? New study points to local sources

A new study found that Northwest China's precipitation increase since the late 1990s is largely driven by local sources, including enhanced evapotranspiration. The region's humidification trend is fueled by warming temperatures, vegetation recovery, and increased meltwater from glaciers and snowpack.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateMar 9, 2026

Chinese scientists develop new model to accurately assess global salt marsh carbon sinks

A new process-based model, SAL-GPP, has been developed to accurately assess the carbon sequestration capacity of global salt marshes. The model reveals that global salt marshes have an average annual gross primary production of 66.89 Tg C yr⁻¹, with hotspots in regions like China's southeastern coast and Western Europe.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalEnvironmental Science & Technology·DateMar 3, 2026

Are climate models detecting monsoon changes a decade too early? “Super-simulations” say “yes”

A new study suggests climate models may underestimate natural variability in monsoons, leading to an earlier detection of human-caused changes. Researchers used 'super-simulations' to analyze 550 climate models and found that projection uncertainty stems from model differences and internal variability.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateFeb 25, 2026

New research from Harbin Institute of Technology aims to predict turbulence like weather – with probability

Researchers develop a probabilistic framework to predict turbulence onset in flow systems, enabling better forecasting of extreme weather events and understanding climate tipping points. This approach has potential implications for atmospheric science, aviation, and meteorology.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateFeb 8, 2026

Scientists discover why some Central Pacific El Niños die quickly while others linger for years

A new study reveals that strong Central Pacific El Niños self-destruct due to negative feedbacks from distant oceans, while weaker events survive by forming a lasting partnership with the North Pacific climate pattern. This discovery enables forecasting months in advance with over 80% accuracy.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJan 22, 2026

Application of orthogonal CNOP-I in a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system based on CMA-MESO for improving extreme precipitation skill

Researchers improve extreme precipitation forecast accuracy using a novel CNOP-I scheme in a convection-allowing ensemble prediction system. The new method captures nonlinear evolution characteristics of weather systems, leading to more accurate predictions and reduced uncertainty.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJan 14, 2026

New study reveals precursors for forecasting summer clustered extreme precipitation events in Northeast China

Researchers have identified four synoptic patterns contributing to summer clustered extreme precipitation events in Northeast China, including eastward-moving low-altitude vortex and southwesterlies. The study provides a robust assessment of prerequisite conditions for these events and offers insights into short-term forecasting.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJan 14, 2026

New study reveals weakening of circum-global teleconnection pattern under future warming and its impact on heatwaves

A recent study reveals that the Circum-global Teleconnection Pattern (CGT) weakens under global warming, leading to changes in regional heatwave duration. The research found a significant increase in heatwave duration over Eastern Europe, Tibetan Plateau, and North America, while a decrease was observed over the Middle East.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·DateJan 6, 2026

Combining satellite and regional numerical weather prediction effectively enhances the ability to forecast solar radiation

Researchers Min Chen and Liangchen Guo developed a new system using Fengyun-4B satellite data and regional numerical forecast model RMAPS-ST to improve ultra-short-term solar irradiance forecasting. The system achieved significant reductions in forecast errors, particularly in warm seasons and short-term forecasts.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateDec 29, 2025

Study quantifies ‘hot drought’ impact: 2025 Los Angeles wildfire risk amplified by up to 210%

Global climate change intensifies extreme weather events like heatwaves and droughts, altering wildfire patterns worldwide. The study quantifies the impact of 'hot drought' on 2025 LA wildfires, showing an increased risk by up to 210%. Additionally, strong Santa Ana winds played a significant role in fire spread.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateDec 22, 2025

Research team develops EPICC air quality model for complex pollution problems

The EPICC model significantly improves the accuracy of simulating PM₂.₅ and ozone, addressing issues found in traditional models. The open-source framework is designed to facilitate collaboration and provide a more effective decision-making tool for China and other rapidly developing countries.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateDec 22, 2025

Climate research reveals global warming intensifies temperature "roller coasters”

A new study reveals that rapid temperature fluctuations have intensified under global warming, posing significant health risks. The research defines these events as occurring when the temperature difference between two consecutive days exceeds historical records, leading to more frequent and sharp swings between temperature extremes.

Scientists quantitatively identify main causes of Russian once-in-a-century heatwave

A new study reveals that surface dynamics and aerosol processes were the key drivers behind the extraordinary 2010 heatwave in western Russia. The researchers used a model-free approach to quantify the contributions of individual radiative and dynamical processes, finding surface dynamics to be the primary contributor.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateNov 20, 2025

The riddle of rising extreme heat days in Europe: Remote “triggers” and local “amplifiers”

A new study reveals a significant interdecadal shift in European summer hot days around 1998, driven by remote climate signals and exacerbated by regional land–atmosphere processes. Soil moisture decreased over Europe, intensifying the land–air coupling strength, leading to enhanced hot days.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateNov 20, 2025

New satellite study reveals a widespread transition zone in the sky, challenging climate models

A new study using CALIOP lidar data found nearly 10% of atmospheric profiles feature ambiguous transition zones between clouds and aerosols. The high frequency of these zones poses a challenge to current climate models, highlighting the need for more sophisticated representations of atmospheric particles.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateNov 17, 2025

Fine-tuning a classic climate model yields better ENSO simulations

A team of researchers has developed an improved version of the Zebiak-Cane model by fine-tuning key atmospheric parameters, resulting in more realistic ENSO simulations. The study demonstrates that adjusting heating efficiency, drag coefficient, and frictional coefficient can mitigate biases and improve the model's realism.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateNov 17, 2025

Post-pandemic emission reductions offer a glimpse into the future of monsoon rains, study finds

A new study projects that sustained carbon neutrality efforts will fundamentally reshape global monsoon patterns, leading to a more balanced distribution of vital rains. The path to carbon neutrality unfolds in two phases, with an initial temporary increase in rainfall imbalance between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateNov 9, 2025

Enhancing ocean wind observation accuracy: New rain correction approach for FY-3E WindRAD

A new rain correction approach using dual-frequency measurements from the WindRAD instrument aboard the FY-3E satellite significantly improves wind measurement accuracy during moderate rainfall. The method reduces wind speed root-mean-square errors by approximately 0.2 m s−1 and wind direction errors by about 1.6°.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateNov 6, 2025

"Can it?" vs. "did it?"— new study reveals the complex role of the Asian summer monsoon in the 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave

A recent study found that the Asian summer monsoon activity in June 2021 actually exacerbated the intensity of the heatwave, rather than cooling it down. The study suggests that this occurred due to an anomalously strong Pacific jet stream and specific background atmospheric circulation.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalGeophysical Research Letters·DateNov 6, 2025

New study shows high-resolution cmip6 models better capture long-term precipitation trends in high mountain Asia

A new study published in Journal of Climate reveals that high-resolution CMIP6 models more accurately simulate long-term summer precipitation trends in High Mountain Asia. The study found that higher resolution improves the simulation by reducing a wet bias, particularly over the southern margin and nearby regions.

Ocean iron fertilization or artificial ocean alkalinization? Study reveals divergent effects on climate

Researchers analyzed two marine-based carbon removal methods, ocean iron fertilization (OIF) and artificial ocean alkalinization (AOA), for their impacts on the climate system. OIF enhances marine carbon sinks by adding iron, increasing photosynthesis and absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere, but exacerbates deep-ocean acidification.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateOct 28, 2025

Weak lightning in developing thunderstorms triggers deadly wildfire

Researchers found that weaker lightning during thunderstorm development can ignite forest fires, posing a higher risk due to distinct atmospheric conditions like low precipitation and strong winds. This discovery sheds new light on the prevention and control of lightning wildfires in mountainous areas globally.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateOct 14, 2025

Interpretable deep learning network significantly improves tropical cyclone intensity forecast accuracy

A novel framework integrates Kolmogorov–Arnold networks with dynamic predictor pruning optimization to improve TC intensity prediction. TCI–KAN achieves superior accuracy in 6-h intensity forecasts, outperforming referenced best records by 31%, 13%, and 6%. The model's accuracy varies by region and TC category.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateOct 9, 2025

Scientists target key parameters of MJO simulation bias to improve climate models

Researchers found that increasing convective adjustment timescale (tau) values in climate models improves MJO simulation accuracy, with a critical threshold of 2 hours. A larger tau value suppresses convective precipitation, leading to larger intraseasonal moisture perturbations necessary for MJO development.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateSep 26, 2025

From the Atlantic to Asia: How an ocean thousands of miles away dictates rainfall on the Tibetan Plateau

A new study reveals that the North Atlantic Ocean's sea surface temperature dipole influences summer precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau through atmospheric teleconnection processes. This finding provides a new framework for understanding rainfall variability and has significant implications for climate risk management in the region.

Can a hybrid AI-physics model address the challenges of typhoon forecasting? New study shows significant accuracy gains

A recent study demonstrates significant gains in forecast accuracy using a hybrid Shanghai Typhoon Model, which combines the strengths of both physics-based and machine-learning weather prediction models. The model achieved substantially lower track errors than state-of-the-art models during Typhoon Danas in 2025.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateSep 19, 2025

Unprecedented heat in North China: how soil moisture amplified 2023's record heatwave

A new study reveals that a combination of large-scale atmospheric circulation and strong soil moisture feedback contributed to North China's record-breaking three-day heatwave in late June 2023. The study found that the extreme heat was amplified by an unusually dry season, with temperatures soaring past 40°C in some areas.

China Meteorological Administration improves tropical cyclone forecasting accuracy

The China Meteorological Administration has demonstrated significant improvements in both track and intensity prediction accuracy for tropical cyclones. The study finds that track forecast errors have reduced, particularly at longer lead times, while intensity forecasts have also shown advancements.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateAug 5, 2025

Release of high-resolution dynamical downscaling dataset for the Arctic Ocean

A new dataset has been developed to study climate change in the Arctic Ocean. The dataset spans from 1900 to 2100 with high resolution, offering a more accurate understanding of the region's changing climate. It significantly reduces simulation errors and improves representation of key variables.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 31, 2025

A leading-edge review maps path to better Asian monsoon predictions under global change

A comprehensive review synthesizes decades of research on Asian monsoon climate prediction, highlighting three key pillars: ENSO, atmospheric teleconnections, and monsoon-ocean interactions. The study emphasizes the need for a multi-pronged approach to overcome challenges in forecasting, including leveraging AI and improving model accu...

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAdvances in Atmospheric Sciences·DateJul 28, 2025

New AI model brings breakthroughs in five-day regional weather forecasting

Researchers developed a novel deep learning-based framework that improves five-day regional weather forecasting accuracy, even with limited data. The method achieved significant improvements in temperature, precipitation, and wind speed forecasts, outperforming mainstream global AI models.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJul 24, 2025

Characteristics of the extratropical transition of tropical cyclones on different tracks in the western North Pacific

The study reveals significant differences in transition duration, location, and mechanism among four clusters of ETCs. Recurving ETCs undergo transition during track recurvature, while westward ETCs transform rapidly after landing. Northwestward ETCs typically undergo transition in the baroclinic zone, and abnormal track ETCs complete ...

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJul 24, 2025

New research helps narrow down uncertainties in near-term precipitation projections for the Asian Water Tower

A new study uses 100 ensemble members to analyze near-term precipitation projections for the QP, finding a complex east–west dipole pattern influenced by the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. This helps increase consistency of precipitation projections.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJul 15, 2025

Prolonged humid-heat seasons in eastern China threaten public health, especially for the elderly and children

Compound heat-humidity extremes in eastern China are lasting longer than ever before, significantly increasing health risks for the elderly and young children. The study found that the active season has expanded, especially in South China, leading to a major public health crisis as China's population ages.

SourceInstitute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences·JournalAtmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters·DateJul 9, 2025