Articles tagged with Statistical Estimation
Researchers created a model to forecast eucalyptus leaf health based on temperature data, explaining over 80% of observed damage. This approach has the potential to identify suitable planting regions worldwide.
A study by CCNY professor Jacek Dmochowski provides a statistical theory of optimal decision-making in sports betting. He found that the objective is to estimate the median outcome, not the average, and offers advice on how to seek out profitable bets.
A Dartmouth-led project has updated the Know Your Chances website to include smoking status as a major risk factor for mortality estimates. The new estimates provide more accurate predictions of cancer and disease risk, with smokers facing significantly higher risks after age 40.
The study revealed lower age-standardized rate of NENs incidence in China (1.14 per 100,000) compared to the USA (6.26 per 100,000). The most common sites for primary NEN tumors progressed were found to be the pancreas, stomach, lungs, and rectum.
A new paper proposes an itemized checklist to guide researchers in publishing analyses using complex sample survey data. The checklist, PRICSSA, consists of 17 important items to report for any analyses conducted on complex survey data. This reform aims to increase transparency and make analytic mistakes easier to spot.
African provinces' inclusive wealth per capita rose modestly by 1% between 2012 and 2018, signaling weak sustainability performance. The study highlights the tradeoffs between income and natural capital growth, emphasizing the importance of harmonizing national and subnational interventions.
Researchers at UToledo developed a new model to estimate the abundance of rare species like invasive grass carp in freshwater ecosystems. The model helps guide management strategies and provides insight into the effectiveness of control efforts.
A study uses statistical physics to analyze hourly plane landing volumes, estimating airport operations' efficiency. The model demonstrates that airport operations become more random after the COVID-19 pandemic, indicating changes in aircraft interactions.
Researchers developed temporal compressive super-resolution microscopy (TCSRM) to overcome optical diffraction's spatial resolution restriction. TCSRM achieves high-speed imaging at 1200 frames per second with a spatial resolution of 100 nanometers, enabling observation of fast dynamics in fine structures.
Researchers at UBC Okanagan have developed transmission schemes that incorporate reconfigurable intelligent surfaces to serve as reflectors within existing wireless networks. These surfaces can bounce signals to cell phones, improving accuracy and reliability in location services and data speeds.
The DART mission successfully deflected the orbit of asteroid Dimorphos by 33 minutes. The team's calculations showed that the momentum transferred to Dimorphos was significantly enhanced by the recoil created from streams of particles produced by the impact, exceeding initial expectations.
A new measure called c-value helps researchers choose between techniques based on the chance that a new method is more accurate for a specific dataset. The tool answers questions like whether to use alternative estimation methods despite potential costs and effort.
Research from Texas A&M University reveals that male alcohol use has a significant negative influence on in vitro fertilization (IVF) success rates. The study highlights the importance of expanding fertility and prepregnancy messaging to emphasize the reproductive dangers of alcohol use by both parents.
Researchers in Japan have developed a novel method to assign workplace locations to individuals in synthetic populations, addressing a significant limitation of previous models. This breakthrough enables more accurate social simulations, which can be used to assess various social issues and inform policy decisions.
A team of researchers from Xi'an Jiaotong-Liverpool University and other institutions has identified a flexible and user-friendly model for predicting flood frequency in a changing environment. The fractional polynomial-based regression method is more effective than existing models, which often fail to account for factors like climate ...
Researchers found that white matter hyperintensities are independently associated with premature brain aging, leading to progressive age-like brain atrophy. The study used machine-learning algorithms to estimate brain age and analyzed the relationship between WMH load and BrainGAP scores.
A study by MIT economists suggests that a modest tax on robots and foreign trade could help address income inequality in the US. The optimal policy includes taxes ranging from 1% to 3.7% of robot value, with smaller trade taxes, aiming to reduce wage gaps without stifling economic growth.
Researchers found that genetic correlation estimates are confounded by cross-trait assortative mating, a phenomenon where individuals with similar traits mate more frequently. This suggests that some genetic correlations may be inflated and should be re-evaluated for disease risk prediction and therapy development.
Researchers at KAUST develop a novel multivariate skew-elliptical link model to address the challenges of highly imbalanced health data. The new model provides a better fit to COVID-19 datasets and offers flexibility over existing models.
A new nationwide study found that 34.7% of Canadians experienced severe loneliness in January 2021, with migrants and those experiencing job insecurity being most at risk.
A computational study found that adding more than two stratification factors to a phase 2 trial can significantly reduce its statistical power, making it harder to detect a positive result. For modestly sized trials with 84 participants, using four or six stratification factors resulted in power decreases of 13% and 25%, respectively.
A new metric estimates cumulative exposure to PFAS chemicals, enabling comparisons across studies and applications. The calculator takes into account patterns of exposure to multiple chemicals, providing a robust tool for biomonitoring and disease assessment.
A study of 1,199 US essential and frontline workers found that recent mRNA vaccination with 2 or 3 doses before infection with Delta or Omicron variants was associated with attenuated symptoms and viral load. Vaccination status also influenced duration of illness and medical care seeking.
Researchers developed computational models to identify massage businesses at risk of violating laws related to sex and labor trafficking. The models provide probability scores on the likelihood that a business is engaged in illegal activity, allowing law enforcement and organizations to prioritize investigations.
Mathematical models suggest that only 1 in 5 COVID-19 cases were counted worldwide, resulting in an estimated 600 million to 2.4 billion actual cases globally. The wide range of estimated cases highlights the problems with accuracy of reported numbers due to data tampering, inconsistent reporting, and lack of uniformity.
A new University of Toronto study finds an additional 514 deaths should be added to the official Hurricane Maria death toll due to displaced Puerto Ricans in the US. The study suggests undercounting and highlights the need for equitable disaster preparedness and cross-jurisdiction data sharing.
A team of researchers from Kyoto University and Cameroon used camera trap surveys to predict the total biomass of large rodents and duikers in southeast Cameroon. They developed six candidate indicators, including the ratio of red duikers to blue duikers, which showed positive linear correlations with total bushmeat biomass.
A global competition between approximation methods for analyzing large spatial datasets shed light on their statistical efficiency. The competition compared various methods using synthetic spatial datasets and revealed the performance of different approaches, providing a unified framework for understanding existing approximation methods.
A study found that UK adults' accuracy in estimating national statistics is influenced by their intelligence, religiousness, and political beliefs. Respondents were most accurate when estimating characteristics like vegetarianism and car ownership, but least accurate for minority groups like homosexuals.
A Dartmouth study found that the stratified approach to statistical modeling in health services research can lead to inaccurate conclusions about disparities and inequities in healthcare. Joint modeling, on the other hand, provides a more accurate estimate of physician treatment patterns across different patient types.
A new study by researchers at the University of Waterloo found that stricter non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as policy restrictions on business operations and indoor mask mandates, are associated with reduced COVID-19 cases in Ontario. The study also suggests that increases in workplace attendance correlate with higher case counts.
Researchers from Osaka City University have developed a Bayesian phase difference estimation (BPDE) algorithm that directly calculates the energy difference between two relevant quantum states. This breakthrough enables precise accuracy in chemistry problems and overcomes limitations of conventional full-CI calculations.
A new study estimates the intensity and frequency of extreme novel pandemics, finding that large pandemics like COVID-19 are relatively likely due to growing risks. The study suggests that a pandemic similar in scale to COVID-19 is likely within 59 years, highlighting the need for adjusted perceptions of pandemic risks.
A new study by University of Washington researchers estimates that a record-breaking lifespan of 125-130 years is possible by 2100. The study uses Bayesian statistics to analyze data from the International Database on Longevity and predicts that the world record for the oldest person will be broken.
Researchers found that when people visually estimate object size, they consider the surrounding context and distance from the observer, rescaling sizes before estimating variance. This ability allows for quick estimation of statistical characteristics of multiple objects.
Regional differences in Russia's alcohol consumption patterns reveal a complex relationship between government measures and unlicensed alcohol sales. Studies have shown that regions with stricter policies exhibit reduced registered alcohol consumption, but unregistered alcohol remains a significant issue.
A new statistical method called distance multivariance can detect higher-order dependencies between multiple variables, even complex non-linear relationships. This method has been applied to a survey of school students, revealing a higher-order dependence including age and gender as influencing factors for missed school days.
A new model accurately estimates terror group lifetime lethality from initial attacks, potentially identifying highly destructive groups before they mature. The model conceptualizes terror groups as businesses constrained by resources, explaining lethality better than standard models.
Research by Kazan Federal University professor Andreja Istenič Starčič reveals that book publishing in humanities is on the rise, with some countries seeing significant increases. Monographs account for varying percentages of total publications across five European nations, while book chapters dominate in others.
The study found that the number of women using modern methods increased by 28.8 million between 2012 and 2017, but progress varies widely across countries. Countries like Kenya, Mozambique, and Malawi made rapid strides in increasing modern contraceptive use, exceeding pre-FP2020 expectations.
Cognitive psychologists found that people can accurately estimate both mean size and number of objects in separate tasks, suggesting two independent processes. This discovery can inform new approaches to statistical data visualization and education.
Groundbreaking research employs innovative statistical methods to accurately quantify modern slavery's prevalence, revealing an estimated 40.3 million people enslaved worldwide in 2016. The work has been widely accepted by the UN and advocates, offering a solution to estimate the extent of slavery in well-developed countries.
A study found that while 77% of participants take selfies regularly, 82% would prefer fewer selfies on social media. Participants perceived their own selfies as more self-ironic and authentic, while those taken by others were seen as less authentic.
A new study found that NHL forwards reach their peak performance between the ages of 27 and 28, while defencemen peak between 28 and 29. The study also revealed that players perform close to their peak levels for several years before and after their optimal age range.
A new statistical model predicts a significant increase in the number of people over 85 worldwide by 2100, outpacing previous estimates. This will result in fewer working-age adults supporting elderly populations, posing challenges for social security systems globally.
Researchers at Ruhr-University Bochum developed a new method to calculate the probability of extreme events in finance. The traditional approach ignores the bulk of the relevant data, which can lead to important information being lost. By using this new method, scientists can better predict such events and improve financial models.
Researchers claim most crowd estimations are unreliable due to political bias and have devised new methods for estimating static and mobile crowds with reduced margin of error. The 'area x density' method for static crowds and the 'two-inspection-point' method for mobile crowds can provide more accurate estimates
The editorial highlights the lack of knowledge on human trafficking's scale and health implications, leading to inadequate protection systems and poor healthcare for trafficked persons. Many countries fail to meet their responsibilities towards Palermo Protocols, leaving victims without necessary support.
A new study uses statistical methods to assess the authenticity of items sold on internet auction sites, revealing over 80% of artwork claimed to be by Henry Moore was actually fake. The results suggest strengthening laws on misrepresentation is necessary for public protection.
A study of internal medicine residents found that those reporting higher levels of fatigue and distress were more likely to report medical errors. The study suggests that fatigue, sleepiness, burnout, depression, and reduced quality of life are independently associated with an increased risk of future self-perceived major medical errors.
The program aims to develop advanced statistical methodologies for implementing USDA surveys and analyzing survey results. Four focus areas have been identified: multivariate imputation, new design and estimation methodologies, automated editing and imputation methods, and statistical multi-source predictive models.
A new University of Melbourne study found that nearly one in five working women and one in eight working men experience preventable depression caused by job stress. The study estimates that more than 21,000 cases of preventable depression are caused by job stress each year.
A Northwestern University study found that juries give wrong verdicts in at least one out of eight cases, with agreement rates between judges and jurors varying between 77-80%. The study uses statistical analysis to estimate the accuracy of jury verdicts, suggesting that juries may be less accurate than judges in certain cases.
A recent study from Georgetown University reveals that the number of new high-tech visas required by the US economy over the next decade is significantly higher than initially assumed. The report suggests that Congress may be authorizing too many visas, with 630,000 left over after filling all available positions.
A French BSE epidemic is believed to have infected at least 1,200 cattle since 1987, with around 100 animals slaughtered for human consumption in 2000. The risk of BSE entering the food chain from British beef has been reduced, but late-stage infected animals are likely to have been slaughtered for meat.
A study published in Preventive Medicine reveals that smoking is a leading cause of fires and death from fires globally, resulting in an estimated cost of nearly $7 billion in the US and $27.2 billion worldwide. Smoking causes 30% of fire deaths in the US and 10% globally.
A study by Princeton researchers estimates that 8-18 million Americans may identify with more than one race in the 2000 census, several times greater than previous estimates. The vast majority of likely multiple race respondents chose 'White' when faced with the traditional single-response race question.
A new study found that Americans overestimate their lifespan by about a year compared to official statistics. Blacks and men are the most optimistic about their lifespans, while white females predict they will live less than expected.
Researchers use 'Cosmic Triangle' to plot evidence for accelerated universe expansion and high mass density of dark energy. The findings rule out models with low or negative mass density, pointing towards a flat universe dominated by dark energy.
Researchers have found that the Earth's inner core is rotating at a faster rate than its outer layers, with estimates suggesting it rotates four to 12 times slower. The independent rotation is thought to be caused by convection in the molten iron outer core, which produces the Earth's magnetic field.